Causal inference and large-scale expert validation shed light on the drivers of SDM accuracy and variance

Aim

To develop a causal understanding of the drivers of Species distribution model (SDM) performance.

Location

United Kingdom (UK).

Methods

We measured the accuracy and variance of SDMs fitted for 518 species of invertebrate and plant in the UK. Our measure of variance reflects variation among replicate model fits, and taxon experts assessed model accuracy. Using directed acyclic graphs, we developed a causal model depicting plausible effects of explanatory variables (e.g. species' prevalence, sample size) on SDM accuracy and variance and quantified those effects using a multilevel piecewise path model.

Results

According to our model, sample size and niche completeness (proportion of a species' niche covered by sampling) directly affect SDM accuracy and variance. Prevalence and range completeness have indirect effects mediated by sample size. Challenging conventional wisdom, we found that the effect of prevalence on SDM accuracy is positive. This reflects the facts that sample size has a positive effect on accuracy and larger sample sizes are possible for widespread species. It is possible, however, that the omission of an unobserved confounder biased this effect. Previous studies, which reported negative correlations between prevalence and SDM accuracy, conditioned on sample size.

Main conclusions

Our model explicates the causal basis of previously reported correlations between SDM performance and species/data characteristics. It also suggests that niche completeness has similarly large effects on SDM accuracy and variance as sample size. Analysts should consider niche completeness, or proxies thereof, in addition to sample size when deciding whether modelling is worthwhile.     

Begomovirus diversity in tomato crops in Costa Rica

Begomoviruses (Geminiviridae family) are characterized by their high recombination rate and a wide range of hosts, making their control difficult. In Costa Rica, various species of bipartite begomoviruses have been reported, which are Pepper golden mosaic virus (PepGMV), Tomato yellow mottle virus (ToYMoV), Tomato leaf curl Sinaloa virus (ToLCSiV) and the monopartite begomovirus Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV). Since the TYLCV first report in Costa Rica, neither additional knowledge has been produced on how this begomovirus has spread in the country's territory nor on the distribution of the other bipartite species. A total of 429 tomato samples collected during the years 2015–2016 were used to study these aspects. Each sample was georeferenced and analysed with various techniques such as nucleic acid hybridization, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing for the begomoviruses previously reported in Costa Rica. It was found that the presence/absence of the different species can vary, depending on the province. TYLCV is present in the six provinces analysed in this work, with a proportion from 3.7 to 86.6 per cent. Alajuela, Cartago, and Heredia are the provinces most affected by tomato-infecting begomoviruses. Fourteen different haplotypes of TYLCV were detected, but all were identified as TYLCV-IL. The distribution of TYLCV was related to the presence of the whitefly Bemisia tabaci MED, especially in the country's main tomato production areas. This information allows the phytosanitary surveillance services to develop strategies for the integrated management of the disease and to contribute data to the genetic improvement programmes of the crop.     

Distribution of endogenous gibberellins in vegetative and reproductive organs of Brassica

Recognizing the physiological diversity of different plant organs, studies were conducted to investigate the distribution of endogenous gibberellins (GAs) in Brassica (canola or oilseed rape). GA₁ and its biosynthetic precursors, GA₂₀ and GA₁₉, were extracted, chromatographically purified, and quantified by gas-chromatography-selected ion monitoring (GC-SIM), using [²H₂]GAs as internal standards. In young (vegetative) B. napus cv. Westar plants, GA concentrations were lowest in the roots, increased acropetally along the shoot axis, and were highest in the shoot tips. GA concentrations were high but variable in leaves. GA₁ concentrations also increased acropetally along the plant axis in reproductive plants. During early silique filling, GA₁ concentrations were highest in siliques and progressively lower in flowers, inflorescence stalks (peduncles plus pedicels), stem, leaves, and roots. Concentrations of GA₁₉ and GA₂₀ showed similar patterns of distribution except in leaves, in which concentrations were higher, but variable. Immature siliques were qualitatively rich in endogenous GAs and GA₁, GA₃, GA₄, GA₈, GA₉, GA₁₇, GA₁₉, GA₂₀, GA₂₄, GA₂₉, GA₃₄, GA₅₁, and GA₅₃ were identified by GC-SIM. In whole siliques, GA₁₉, GA₂₀, GA₁, and GA₈ concentrations declined during maturation due to declining levels in the maturing seeds; their concentrations in the silique coats remained relatively constant and low. These studies demonstrate that GAs are differentially distributed in _Brassica with a general pattern of acropetally increasing concentration in shoots and high concentration in actively growing and developing organs.     

Mutants in dolichol synthesis: conversion of polyprenol to dolichol appears to be a rate-limiting step in dolichol synthesis

Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells of the Lec9 recessive complementationgroup display a distinctive profile of resistance to a varietyof toxic lectins. In addition, they accumulate cis--unsaturatedpolyprenol and use mainly polyprenol rather than dolichol tosynthesize the glycosylated lipids used in asparagine-linkedglycosylation of proteins. The primary defect in these cellsis thought to result from a deficiency in polyprenol reductaseactivity. Three new mutants were isolated and determined tohave qualitatively, although not quantitatively, similar lectinresistance profiles to Lec9 cells. Two of these mutants (Abr^Rand Ric^R) also contained polyprenol rather than dolichol. Thelectin resistance profile of an independent mutant which accumulatespolyprenol, F2A8, was also found to be qualitatively similarto the Lec9 pattern. The relationship among these mutants wasanalysed in more detail by construction of cell—cell hybrids.Lectin resistance profiles of the hybrids demonstrated thatAbr^R, Ric^R and F2A8 fell into the Lec9 complementation group.Analysis of prenols in the hybrids also showed that F2A8 wasa member of the Lec9 group. Surprisingly, a significant fractionof the prenols found in Lec9 Parent hybrids was polyprenol(up to 30% of the neutral fraction), whereas the prenols foundin Parent Parent hybrids were nearly exclusively dolichol(97% of the neutral lipid fraction). Therefore, reduction ofpolyprenol to dolichol appears to be a rate-limiting step inthe synthesis of dolichol since hybrids with differing numbersof wild-type alleles can be biochemically distinguished. CHO cells dolichol lectins mutants polyprenol reductase     

Fluorescent in situ hybridization of the telomere repeat sequence in hamster sperm nuclear structures

The flat, hooked-shaped architecture of the hamster sperm nucleus makes this an excellent model for in situ hybridization studies of the three dimensional structure of the genome. We have examined the structure of the telomere repeat sequence (TTAGGG)_n with respect to the various nuclear structures present in hamster spermatozoa, using fluorescent in situ hybridization. In fully condensed, mature sperm nuclei, the telomere sequences appeared as discrete spots of various sizes interspersed throughout the volume of the nuclei. While the pattern of these signals was non-random, it varied significantly in different nuclei. These discrete telomere foci were seen to gradually lengthen into linear, beaded signals as sperm nuclei were decondensed, in vitro, and were not associated with the nuclear annulus. We also examined the relationship of telomeres to the sperm nuclear matrix, a residual nuclear structure that retains the original size and shape of the nucleus. In these structures the DNA extends beyond the perimeter of the nucleus to form a halo around it, representing the arrangement of the chromosomal DNA into loop domains attached at their bases to the nuclear matrix. Telomere signals in these structures were also linear and equal in length to those of the decondensed nuclei, and each signal represented part of a single DNA loop domain. The telomeres were attached at one end to the nuclear matrix and extended into the halo. Sperm nuclear matrices treated with Eco RI retained the telomere signals. These data support sperm DNA packaging models in which DNA is coiled into discrete foci, rather than spread out linearly along the length of the sperm nucleus.     

Biosynthesis and function of membrane bound and secreted forms of recombinant CD11b/CD18 (Mac-1)

Full-length (membrane bound) and truncated (secreted) forms of the beta 2 integrin heterodimer, CD11b/CD18 (Mac-1), were expressed in a human kidney cell line (293) that normally does not express leukocyte adhesion molecules (Leu-CAMs). The biosynthesis of recombinant Mac-1 in 293 cells differed from that reported for leukocytes in that heterodimer formation was not required for CD11b to be exported to the cell surface. A stable cell line was constructed that constitutively secreted the recombinant, truncated Mac-1 heterodimer into growth conditioned cell culture medium. A novel monoclonal antibody that enabled an immunoaffinity method for the selective purification of recombinant Mac-1 heterodimers was identified. Sufficient protein was purified to allow the first measurement of the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) for CD11b/CD18 and for the direct comparison of the inhibitory activity of recombinant soluble Mac-1 with that of various CD18 and CD11b specific monoclonal antibodies. Purified recombinant soluble Mac-1 inhibited the binding of neutrophils, activated by opsonized zymosan or fMet-Leu-Phe peptide, to human umbilical vein endothelial cells. Similarly, the recombinant integrin was effective in inhibiting the binding of unactivated neutrophils to tumor necrosis factor (TNF-alpha) activated endothelial cells. The availability of an abundant source of purified, biologically active Mac-1 will enable direct physical and chemical investigations into the relationship between the structure and function of this leukocyte adhesion molecule.     

Hatching plasticity in a Southeast Asian tree frog mitigates submergence-induced mortality

Environmentally cued hatching has been well-documented in amphibians in response to a wide range of abiotic and biotic factors. The hatching of terrestrial amphibian eggs in response to flooding may be basal within the group, but amphibian lineages in tropical Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have not received as much attention as their Neotropical counterparts. We investigated submergence-induced hatching in Feihyla hansenae, a Rhacophorid tree frog with terrestrial eggs. We quantified natural rates of clutch submergence at our study site in Thailand. Using submergence experiments, we found that embryos are capable of hatching early to escape flooding, and that failure to hatch results in mortality. Among the embryos that were able to hatch early, only the earliest, youngest hatchlings experienced a trade-off in body size that persisted for 6 days, while later, older hatchlings were not significantly smaller than spontaneous hatchlings under control conditions. By incorporating our natural and experimental data into Monte Carlo methods to simulate and compare survival probabilities with and without hatching plasticity, we found an overall 3.1% increase in submergence survival due to hatching plasticity. Our findings support the idea that flooding-induced hatching is widespread across amphibians with terrestrial eggs and highlight the importance of researching understudied tropical regions. As climate change is projected to affect rainfall patterns, the ability of embryos to escape abiotic egg-stage threats may be an indicator of species' ability to flexibly navigate a changing environment.     

The structure and evolution of the human salivary proline-rich protein gene family

We present the nucleotide sequences of four members of the six-member human salivary prolinerich protein (PRP) gene family. The four genes are PRB1 and PRB2, which encode basic PRPs, and PRB3 and PRB4, which encode glycosylated PRPs. Each PRB gene is approximately 4.0 kb in length and contains four exons, the third of which is entirely composed of 63-bp tandem repeats and encodes the proline-rich portion of the protein products. Exon 3 contains different numbers of tandem repeats in the different PRB genes. Variation in the numbers of these repeats is also responsible for length variations in different alleles of the PRB genes. We have determined a probable evolutionary history of the human PRP gene family by comparing the nucleotide sequences of the six PRP genes. The present-day six PRP loci probably evolved from a single ancestral gene by four sequential gene duplications, leading to six genes that fall into three subsets, each consisting of two genes. During this evolutionary process, multiple rearrangements and gene conversion occurred mainly in the region from the 3 end of IVS2 and the 3 end of exon 3.     

Isogenic P-fimbrial deletion mutants of pyelonephritogenic Escherichia coli: the role of α Gal(1–4)β Gal binding in virulence of a wild-type strain

Escherichia coli strains causing acute pyelonephritis often express multiple fimbrial types and haemolysin, which may contribute to their ability to adhere to, and interact with, kidney epithelial cells. Strain CFT073, a pap⁺, sfa⁺, pil⁺, hly⁺ pyelonephritis strain, previously established as virulent in the CBA mouse model of ascending urinary tract infection and cytotoxic for cultured human renal epithelial cells, was selected for construction of isogenic strains. From a gene bank of this strain, two distinct copies of the pap operon were isolated. The two P-fimbrial determinants were sub-cloned into pCVD442, a positive selection suicide vector containing the sacB gene of Bacillus subtilis. Deletion mutations were introduced into each of the two constructs, within papEFG of one operon and papDEFG of the other. Suicide vectors carrying pap deletions were mobilized from E. coli SM10 lambda pir into CFT073 (Nal^R) and cointegrates were passaged on non-selective medium. The first pap mutation was identified by screening a Southern blot of DNA from sucrose-resistant colonies using a papEFG probe. This mutant retained the MRHA⁺ phenotype since a second functional copy of pap was still present. A double pap-deletion mutant, UPEC76, confirmed by Southern blotting, was unable to agglutinate human type O erythrocytes or α Gal(1–4)β Gal-coated latex beads. CBA mice (N =100) were challenged transurethrally with 10⁵, 10⁶, 10⁷, or 10⁹ cfu of strains CFT073 or UPEC76. After one week, quantitative cultures of urine, bladder, and kidney were done and histologic changes were examined. No substantive differences in organism concentration or histological findings between parent and mutant were detected in urine, bladder, or kidney at any challenge concentration. We conclude that adherence by P fimbriae of uro-pathogenic E. coli strain CFT073 plays only a subtle role in the development of acute pyelonephritis in the CBA mouse model.