A nonlinear model with latent process for cognitive evolution using multivariate longitudinal data

Cognition is not directly measurable. It is assessed using psychometric tests, which can be viewed as quantitative measures of cognition with error. The aim of this article is to propose a model to describe the evolution in continuous time of unobserved cognition in the elderly and assess the impact of covariates directly on it. The latent cognitive process is defined using a linear mixed model including a Brownian motion and time-dependent covariates. The observed psychometric tests are considered as the results of parameterized nonlinear transformations of the latent cognitive process at discrete occasions. Estimation of the parameters contained both in the transformations and in the linear mixed model is achieved by maximizing the observed likelihood and graphical methods are performed to assess the goodness of fit of the model. The method is applied to data from PAQUID, a French prospective cohort study of ageing.     

Traffic instabilities in self-organized pedestrian crowds

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control. However, the functional benefits of this emergent organization have never been experimentally measured, and the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. In this work, we have studied this phenomenon under controlled laboratory conditions. We found that the traffic segregation exhibits structural instabilities characterized by the alternation of organized and disorganized states, where the lifetime of well-organized clusters of pedestrians follow a stretched exponential relaxation process. Further analysis show that the inter-pedestrian variability of comfortable walking speeds is a key variable at the origin of the observed traffic perturbations. We show that the collective benefit of the emerging pattern is maximized when all pedestrians walk at the average speed of the group. In practice, however, local interactions between slow- and fast-walking pedestrians trigger global breakdowns of organization, which reduce the collective and the individual payoff provided by the traffic segregation. This work is a step ahead toward the understanding of traffic self-organization in crowds, which turns out to be modulated by complex behavioral mechanisms that do not always maximize the group's benefits. The quantitative understanding of crowd behaviors opens the way for designing bottom-up management strategies bound to promote the emergence of efficient collective behaviors in crowds.     

Persistent and novel threats to the biodiversity of Kazakhstan’s steppes and semi-deserts

Temperate grasslands have suffered disproportionally from conversion to cropland, degradation and fragmentation. A large proportion of the world’s remaining near-natural grassland is situated in Kazakhstan. We aimed to assess current and emerging threats to steppe and semi-desert biodiversity in Kazakhstan and evaluate conservation research priorities. We conducted a horizon-scanning exercise among conservationists from academia and practice. We first compiled a list of 45 potential threats. These were then ranked by the survey participants according to their perceived severity, the need for research on them, and their novelty. The highest-ranked threats were related to changes in land use (leading to habitat loss and deterioration), direct persecution of wildlife, and rapid infrastructure development due to economic and population growth. Research needs were identified largely in the same areas, and the mean scores of threat severity and research need were highly correlated. Novel threats comprised habitat loss by photovoltaic and wind power stations, climate change and changes in agriculture such as the introduction of biofuels. However, novelty was not correlated with threat severity or research priority, suggesting that the most severe threats are the established ones. Important goals towards more effective steppe and semi-desert conservation in Kazakhstan include more cross-sector collaboration (e.g. by involving stakeholders in conservation and agriculture), greater allocation of funds to under-staffed areas (e.g. protected area management), better representativeness and complementarity in the protected area system and enhanced data collection for wildlife monitoring and threat assessments (including the use of citizen-science databases).     

Nitrogen turnover in soil and global change

Nitrogen management in soils has been considered as key to the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems and a protection of major ecosystem services. However, the microorganisms driving processes like nitrification, denitrification, N-fixation and mineralization are highly influenced by changing climatic conditions, intensification of agriculture and the application of new chemicals to a so far unknown extent. In this review, the current knowledge concerning the influence of selected scenarios of global change on the abundance, diversity and activity of microorganisms involved in nitrogen turnover, notably in agricultural and grassland soils, is summarized and linked to the corresponding processes. In this context, data are presented on nitrogen-cycling processes and the corresponding microbial key players during ecosystem development and changes in functional diversity patterns during shifts in land use. Furthermore, the impact of increased temperature, carbon dioxide and changes in precipitation regimes on microbial nitrogen turnover is discussed. Finally, some examples of the effects of pesticides and antibiotics after application to soil for selected processes of nitrogen transformation are also shown.     

A review of the subspecies status of the Icelandic Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima littoralis

The Icelandic Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima littoralis (C.L. Brehm, 1831) represents one member of a poorly understood subspecies complex. Currently, differences in size define two other subspecies: Calidris maritima belcheri Engelmoer & Roselaar, 1998, which breeds in north‐eastern Canada along the Hudson Bay and James Bay, and Calidris maritima maritima (Brunnich, 1764), which breeds along the Arctic coasts elsewhere in northern Canada, Greenland, Svalbard, Scotland, and Fennoscandia, to northern central Siberia. There are large size differences amongst populations of C. m. maritima, however. As an Arctic/Alpine breeding bird, C. m. littoralis could provide an interesting perspective on the evolutionary changes following a northwards expansion of a species after glacial retreat. Considering the extent of the ice sheet in the northern hemisphere during the last glaciation, and the short period of time since it ended, the correct attribution of subspecies status for C. m. maritima may reflect either rapid diversification from a single population or ancestral splits of distinct evolutionary lineages that survived in isolation at southern latitudes. We applied morphometric subspecies criteria, diagnosability by Amadon's rule, and genetic analysis of five nuclear introns, and the mitochondrial DNA markers cytochrome oxidase c subunit I (COI) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 (ND2), to geographically separate breeding populations in order to examine the subspecies status of the Icelandic population. The results do not provide support for the subspecies status of the Icelandic population because the nominate and Icelandic subspecies fail to uphold Amadon's rule, and genetic analyses indicate that the study populations derive from a single shared refugium. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London     

Evidence against cellular internalization in vivo of NMO-IgG, aquaporin-4, and excitatory amino acid transporter 2 in neuromyelitis optica

Autoantibodies against astrocyte water channel aquaporin-4 (AQP4) are thought to be pathogenic in neuromyelitis optica (NMO). Prior work has suggested that a key component of NMO autoantibody (NMO-IgG) pathogenesis is internalization of AQP4 and the associated glutamate transporter EAAT2, leading to glutamate excitotoxicity. Here, we show selective endocytosis of NMO-IgG and AQP4 in transfected cell cultures, but little internalization in brain in vivo. AQP4-dependent endocytosis of NMO-IgG occurred rapidly in various AQP4-transfected cell lines, with efficient transport from early endosomes to lysosomes. Cell surface AQP4 was also reduced following NMO-IgG exposure. However, little or no internalization of NMO-IgG, AQP4, or EAAT2 was found in primary astrocyte cultures, nor was glutamate uptake affected by NMO-IgG exposure. Following injection of NMO-IgG into mouse brain, NMO-IgG binding and AQP4 expression showed a perivascular astrocyte distribution, without detectable cellular internalization over 24 h. We conclude that astrocyte endocytosis of NMO-IgG, AQP4, and EAAT2 is not a significant consequence of AQP4 autoantibody in vivo, challenging generally accepted views about NMO pathogenesis.     

Predicting the success of an invader: Niche shift versus niche conservatism

Invasive species can encounter environments different from their source populations, which may trigger rapid adaptive changes after introduction (niche shift hypothesis). To test this hypothesis, we investigated whether postintroduction evolution is correlated with contrasting environmental conditions between the European invasive and source ranges in the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus. The comparison of environmental niches occupied in European and source population ranges revealed more than 96% overlap between invasive and source niches, supporting niche conservatism. However, we found evidence for postintroduction genetic evolution by reanalyzing a published ddRADseq genomic dataset from 90 European invasive populations using genotype–environment association (GEA) methods and generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM). Three loci, among which a putative heat‐shock protein, exhibited significant allelic turnover along the gradient of winter precipitation that could be associated with ongoing range expansion. Wing morphometric traits weakly correlated with environmental gradients within Europe, but wing size differed between invasive and source populations located in different climatic areas. Niche similarities between source and invasive ranges might have facilitated the establishment of populations. Nonetheless, we found evidence for environmental‐induced adaptive changes after introduction. The ability to rapidly evolve observed in invasive populations (genetic shift) together with a large proportion of unfilled potential suitable areas (80%) pave the way to further spread of Ae. albopictus in Europe.