Bias in Markov models of disease

We examine bias in Markov models of diseases, including both chronic and infectious diseases. We consider two common types of Markov disease models: ones where disease progression changes by severity of disease, and ones where progression of disease changes in time or by age. We find sufficient conditions for bias to exist in models with aggregated transition probabilities when compared to models with state/time dependent transition probabilities. We also find that when aggregating data to compute transition probabilities, bias increases with the degree of data aggregation. We illustrate by examining bias in Markov models of Hepatitis C, Alzheimer’s disease, and lung cancer using medical data and find that the bias is significant depending on the method used to aggregate the data. A key implication is that by not incorporating state/time dependent transition probabilities, studies that use Markov models of diseases may be significantly overestimating or underestimating disease progression. This could potentially result in incorrect recommendations from cost-effectiveness studies and incorrect disease burden forecasts.     

Increasing longevity through caloric restriction or rapamycin feeding in mammals: common mechanisms for common outcomes?

Significant extension of lifespan in important mammalian species is bound to attract the attention not only of the aging research community, but also the media and the wider public. Two recent papers published by Harrison et al. (2009) in Nature and by Colman et al. (2009) in Science report increased longevity of mice fed with rapamycin and of rhesus monkeys undergoing caloric restriction, respectively. These papers have generated considerable debate in the aging community. Here we assess what is new about these findings, how they fit with our knowledge of lifespan extension from other studies and what prospects this new work holds out for improvements in human longevity and human health span.     

A prospective study of androgen levels, hormone-related genes and risk of rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction

Since current treatment options for patients suffering from active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) remain inadequate, especially for those unresponsive to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), new and improved medication is needed. This study evaluates the safety and efficacy of masitinib (AB1010), a potent and selective protein tyrosine kinase inhibitor of c-KIT, in the monotherapy treatment of DMARD-refractory RA.

Methods

This was a multicentre, uncontrolled, open-label, randomised, dose-ranging, phase 2a trial. Masitinib was administered orally to 43 patients who had inadequate response to DMARDs, at initial randomised dosing levels of 3 and 6 mg/kg per day over a 12-week period. Dose adjustment was permitted based upon tolerability and response criteria. Efficacy was assessed via American College of Rheumatology 20%/50%/70% improvement criteria (ACR20/50/70) responses, disease activity score using 28 joint counts (DAS28), index of improvement in RA (ACRn) and C-reactive protein (CRP) improvement, relative to baseline at week 12.

Results

Improvement was observed in all efficacy endpoints, including ACR20/50/70 scores of 54%, 26% and 8%, respectively, and a reduction in CRP level by greater than 50% for approximately half the population. This improvement was sustainable throughout an extension phase (> 84 weeks) and was also independent of initial DMARD resistance (anti-tumour necrosis factor-alpha and/or methotrexate). A relatively high patient withdrawal rate (37%) required the use of last observation carried forward (LOCF) data imputation. Incidence of adverse events was high (95%), although the majority were of mild or moderate severity with a considerable decline in frequency observed after 12 weeks of treatment. Two nonfatal serious adverse events were reported. Dose-response analyses tentatively indicate that an initial dosing level of 6.0 mg/kg per day administered orally in two daily intakes is the most appropriate, based upon potency and tolerability trends.

Conclusions

Treatment with masitinib improved DMARD-refractory active RA. Following an initial high incidence of mostly mild to moderate side effects during the first 12 weeks of treatment, masitinib appears to be generally well tolerated. This, together with evidence of a sustainable efficacy response, suggests that masitinib is suitable for long-term treatment regimens. Since this was the first study of masitinib in a nononcologic pathology, the relatively high patient withdrawal rate observed can be partly attributed to a highly cautious response to adverse events. There is sufficient compelling evidence to warrant further placebo-controlled investigation.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00831922.     

In Vivo Imaging of Far-red Fluorescent Proteins after DNA Electrotransfer to Muscle Tissue

DNA electrotransfer to muscle tissue yields long-term, high levels of gene expression; showing great promise for future gene therapy. We want to characterize the novel far-red fluorescent protein Katushka as a marker for gene expression using time domain fluorescence in vivo imaging. Highly efficient transgenic expression was observed after DNA electrotransfer with 100-fold increase in fluorescent intensity. The fluorescent signal peaked 1 week after transfection and returned to background level within 4 weeks. Katushka expression was not as stable as GFP expression, which was detectable for 8 weeks. Depth and 3D analysis proved that the expression was located in the target muscle. In vivo bio-imaging using the novel Katushka fluorescent protein enables excellent evaluation of the transfection efficacy, and spatial distribution, but lacks long-term stability.     

Met amplification and tumor progression in Cdkn2a‐deficient melanocytes

While many genetic alterations have been identified in melanoma, the relevant molecular events that contribute to disease progression are poorly understood. Most primary human melanomas exhibit loss of expression of the CDKN2A locus in addition to activation of the canonical mitogen‐activated protein kinase signaling pathway. In this study, we used a Cdkn2a‐deficient mouse melanocyte cell line to screen for secondary genetic events in melanoma tumor progression. Upon investigation, intrachromosomal gene amplification of Met, a receptor tyrosine kinase implicated in melanoma progression, was identified in Cdkn2a‐deficient tumors. RNA interference targeting Met in these tumor cells resulted in a significant delay in tumor growth in vivo compared with the control cells. MET expression is rarely detected in primary human melanoma but is frequently observed in metastatic disease. This study validates a role for Met activation in melanoma tumor progression in the context of Cdkn2a deficiency.     

Smoking Is Associated with Shortened Airway Cilia

Background

Whereas cilia damage and reduced cilia beat frequency have been implicated as causative of reduced mucociliary clearance in smokers, theoretically mucociliary clearance could also be affected by cilia length. Based on models of mucociliary clearance predicting that cilia length must exceed the 6–7 µm airway surface fluid depth to generate force in the mucus layer, we hypothesized that cilia height may be decreased in airway epithelium of normal smokers compared to nonsmokers.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Cilia length in normal nonsmokers and smokers was evaluated in aldehyde-fixed, paraffin-embedded endobronchial biopsies, and air-dried and hydrated samples were brushed from human airway epithelium via fiberoptic bronchoscopy. In 28 endobronchial biopsies, healthy smoker cilia length was reduced by 15% compared to nonsmokers (p<0.05). In 39 air-dried samples of airway epithelial cells, smoker cilia length was reduced by 13% compared to nonsmokers (p<0.0001). Analysis of the length of individual, detached cilia in 27 samples showed that smoker cilia length was reduced by 9% compared to nonsmokers (p<0.05). Finally, in 16 fully hydrated, unfixed samples, smoker cilia length was reduced 7% compared to nonsmokers (p<0.05). Using genome-wide analysis of airway epithelial gene expression we identified 6 cilia-related genes whose expression levels were significantly reduced in healthy smokers compared to healthy nonsmokers.

Conclusions/Significance

Models predict that a reduction in cilia length would reduce mucociliary clearance, suggesting that smoking-associated shorter airway epithelial cilia play a significant role in the pathogenesis of smoking-induced lung disease.     

Identification by Automated Screening of a Small Molecule that Selectively Eliminates Neural Stem Cells Derived from hESCs but Not Dopamine Neurons

Background

We have previously described fundamental differences in the biology of stem cells as compared to other dividing cell populations. We reasoned therefore that a differential screen using US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved compounds may identify either selective survival factors or specific toxins and may be useful for the therapeutically-driven manufacturing of cells in vitro and possibly in vivo.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study we report on optimized methods for feeder-free culture of hESCs and hESC-derived neural stem cells (NSCs) to facilitate automated screening. We show that we are able to measure ATP as an indicator of metabolic activity in an automated screening assay. With this optimized platform we screened a collection of FDA-approved drugs to identify compounds that have differential toxicity to hESCs and their neural derivatives. Nine compounds were identified to be specifically toxic for NSCs to a greater extent than for hESCs. Six of these initial hits were retested and verified by large-scale cell culture to determine dose-responsive NSC toxicity. One of the compounds retested, amiodarone HCL, was further tested for possible effects on postmitotic neurons, a likely target for transplant therapy. Amiodarone HCL was found to be selectively toxic to NSCs but not to differentiated neurons or glial cells. Treated and untreated NSCs and neurons were then interrogated with global gene expression analysis to explore the mechanisms of action of amiodarone HCl. The gene expression analysis suggests that activation of cell-type specific cationic channels may underlie the toxicity of the drug.

Conclusions/Significance

In conclusion, we have developed a screening strategy that allows us to rapidly identify clinically approved drugs for use in a Chemistry, Manufacture and Control protocol that can be safely used to deplete unwanted contaminating precursor cells from a differentiated cell product. Our results also suggest that such a strategy is rich in the potential of identifying lineage specific reagents and provides additional evidence for the utility of stem cells in screening and discovery paradigms.