Evaluating Multi-Level Models to Test Occupancy State Responses of Plethodontid Salamanders

Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24); Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29). Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of study questions and objectives prior to sampling data and fitting models.     

Autophagy and mitochondrial remodelling in mouse mesenchymal stromal cells challenged with Staphylococcus epidermidis

The bone marrow stroma constitutes the marrow‐blood barrier, which sustains immunochemical homoeostasis and protection of the haematopoietic tissue in sequelae of systemic bacterial infections. Under these conditions, the bone marrow stromal cells affected by circulating bacterial pathogens shall elicit the adaptive stress‐response mechanisms to maintain integrity of the barrier. The objective of this communication was to demonstrate (i) that in vitro challenge of mesenchymal stromal cells, i.e. colony‐forming unit fibroblasts (CFU‐F), with Staphylococcus epidermidis can activate the autophagy pathway to execute antibacterial defence response, and (ii) that homoeostatic shift because of the bacteria‐induced stress includes the mitochondrial remodelling and sequestration of compromised organelles via mitophagy. Implication of Drp1 and PINK1–PARK2‐dependent mechanisms in the mitophagy turnover of the aberrant mitochondria in mesenchymal stromal cells is investigated and discussed.     

Participation and Contribution in Crowdsourced Surveys

This paper identifies trends within and relationships between the amount of participation and the quality of contributions in three crowdsourced surveys. Participants were asked to perform a collective problem solving task that lacked any explicit incentive: they were instructed not only to respond to survey questions but also to pose new questions that they thought might-if responded to by others-predict an outcome variable of interest to them. While the three surveys had very different outcome variables, target audiences, methods of advertisement, and lengths of deployment, we found very similar patterns of collective behavior. In particular, we found that: the rate at which participants submitted new survey questions followed a heavy-tailed distribution; the distribution in the types of questions posed was similar; and many users posed non-obvious yet predictive questions. By analyzing responses to questions that contained a built-in range of valid response we found that less than 0.2% of responses lay outside of those ranges, indicating that most participants tend to respond honestly to surveys of this form, even without explicit incentives for honesty. While we did not find a significant relationship between the quantity of participation and the quality of contribution for both response submissions and question submissions, we did find several other more nuanced participant behavior patterns, which did correlate with contribution in one of the three surveys. We conclude that there exists an optimal time for users to pose questions early on in their participation, but only after they have submitted a few responses to other questions. This suggests that future crowdsourced surveys may attract more predictive questions by prompting users to pose new questions at specific times during their participation and limiting question submission at non-optimal times.     

Decoding the Traumatic Memory among Women with PTSD: Implications for Neurocircuitry Models of PTSD and Real-Time fMRI Neurofeedback

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is characterized by intrusive recall of the traumatic memory. While numerous studies have investigated the neural processing mechanisms engaged during trauma memory recall in PTSD, these analyses have only focused on group-level contrasts that reveal little about the predictive validity of the identified brain regions. By contrast, a multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) approach towards identifying the neural mechanisms engaged during trauma memory recall would entail testing whether a multivariate set of brain regions is reliably predictive of (i.e., discriminates) whether an individual is engaging in trauma or non-trauma memory recall. Here, we use a MVPA approach to test 1) whether trauma memory vs neutral memory recall can be predicted reliably using a multivariate set of brain regions among women with PTSD related to assaultive violence exposure (N=16), 2) the methodological parameters (e.g., spatial smoothing, number of memory recall repetitions, etc.) that optimize classification accuracy and reproducibility of the feature weight spatial maps, and 3) the correspondence between brain regions that discriminate trauma memory recall and the brain regions predicted by neurocircuitry models of PTSD. Cross-validation classification accuracy was significantly above chance for all methodological permutations tested; mean accuracy across participants was 76% for the methodological parameters selected as optimal for both efficiency and accuracy. Classification accuracy was significantly better for a voxel-wise approach relative to voxels within restricted regions-of-interest (ROIs); classification accuracy did not differ when using PTSD-related ROIs compared to randomly generated ROIs. ROI-based analyses suggested the reliable involvement of the left hippocampus in discriminating memory recall across participants and that the contribution of the left amygdala to the decision function was dependent upon PTSD symptom severity. These results have methodological implications for real-time fMRI neurofeedback of the trauma memory in PTSD and conceptual implications for neurocircuitry models of PTSD that attempt to explain core neural processing mechanisms mediating PTSD.     

The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance

Introduction

Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance.

Methods

To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses.

Results

Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations.

Conclusion

The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation.     

Body Composition QTLs Identified in Intercross Populations Are Reproducible in Consomic Mouse Strains

Genetic variation contributes to individual differences in obesity, but defining the exact relationships between naturally occurring genotypes and their effects on fatness remains elusive. As a step toward positional cloning of previously identified body composition quantitative trait loci (QTLs) from F₂ crosses of mice from the C57BL/6ByJ and 129P3/J inbred strains, we sought to recapture them on a homogenous genetic background of consomic (chromosome substitution) strains. Male and female mice from reciprocal consomic strains originating from the C57BL/6ByJ and 129P3/J strains were bred and measured for body weight, length, and adiposity. Chromosomes 2, 7, and 9 were selected for substitution because previous F₂ intercross studies revealed body composition QTLs on these chromosomes. We considered a QTL confirmed if one or both sexes of one or both reciprocal consomic strains differed significantly from the host strain in the expected direction after correction for multiple testing. Using these criteria, we confirmed two of two QTLs for body weight (Bwq5-6), three of three QTLs for body length (Bdln3-5), and three of three QTLs for adiposity (Adip20, Adip26 and Adip27). Overall, this study shows that despite the biological complexity of body size and composition, most QTLs for these traits are preserved when transferred to consomic strains; in addition, studying reciprocal consomic strains of both sexes is useful in assessing the robustness of a particular QTL.     

Inequality as a Powerful Predictor of Infant and Maternal Mortality around the World

Background

Maternal and infant mortality are highly devastating, yet, in many cases, preventable events for a community. The human development of a country is a strong predictor of maternal and infant mortality, reflecting the importance of socioeconomic factors in determinants of health. Previous research has shown that the Human Development Index (HDI) predicts infant mortality rate (IMR) and the maternal mortality ratio (MMR). Inequality has also been shown to be associated with worse health in certain populations. The main purpose of the present study was to determine the correlation and predictive power of the Inequality Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) as a measure of inequality with the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR), Early Neonatal Mortality Rate (ENMR), Late Neonatal Mortality Rate (LNMR), and the Post Neonatal Mortality Rate (PNMR).

Methods and Findings

Data for the present study were downloaded from two sources: infant and maternal mortality data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Cause of Death Database and the Human Development Index (HDI) and Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) data were downloaded from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Pearson correlation coefficients were estimated, following logarithmic transformations to the data, to examine the relationship between HDI and IHDI with MMR, IMR, ENMR, LNMR, and PNMR. Steiger’s Z test for the equality of two dependent correlations was utilized in order to determine whether the HDI or IHDI was more strongly associated with the outcome variables. Lastly, we constructed OLS regression models in order to determine the predictive power of the HDI and IHDI in terms of the MMR, IMR, ENMR, LNMR, and PNMR.Maternal and infant mortality were both strongly and negatively correlated with both HDI and IHDI; however, Steiger’s Z test for the equality of two dependent correlations revealed that IHDI was more strongly correlated than HDI with MMR (Z = 4.897, p < 0.001), IMR (Z = 2.524, p = 0.012), ENMR (Z = 2.936, p = 0.003), LNMR (Z = 2.272, p = 0.023), and PNMR (Z = 2.277, p = 0.023). Furthermore, side-by-side OLS regression models revealed that, when IHDI was used as the predictor variable instead of HDI, the R ² value was 0.053 higher for MMR, 0.025 higher for IMR, 0.038 higher for ENMR, 0.029 higher for LNMR, and 0.026 higher for PNMR.

Conclusions

Even when both the HDI and the IHDI correlate with the infant and maternal mortality rates, the IHDI is a better predictor for these two health indicators. Therefore, these results add more evidence that inequality is playing an important role in determining the health status of various populations in the world and more efforts should be put into programs to fight inequality.     

The effect of helmets on the risk of head and neck injuries among skiers and snowboarders: a meta-analysis

Background

The prevention of head injuries in alpine activities has focused on helmets. However, no systematic review has examined the effect of helmets on head and neck injuries among skiers and snowboarders.

Methods

We searched electronic databases, conference proceedings and reference lists using a combination of the key words “head injury or head trauma,” “helmet” and “skiing or snowboarding.” We included studies that used a control group; compared skiers or snowboarders with and without helmets; and measured at least one objectively quantified outcome (e.g., head injury, and neck or cervical injury).

Results

We included 10 case–control, 1 case–control/case-crossover and 1 cohort study in our analysis. The pooled odds ratio (OR) indicated that skiers and snowboarders with a helmet were significantly less likely than those without a helmet to have a head injury (OR 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55–0.79). The result was similar for studies that used controls without an injury (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.36–0.92), those that used controls with an injury other than a head or neck injury (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52–0.80) and studies that included children under the age of 13 years (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.27–0.59). Helmets were not associated with an increased risk of neck injury (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72–1.09).

Interpretation

Our findings show that helmets reduce the risk of head injury among skiers and snowboarders with no evidence of an increased risk of neck injury.Skiing and snowboarding are popular winter activities.¹ Estimates from numerous countries indicate that head injuries account for 9% to 19%, and neck injuries for 1% to 4%, of all injuries reported by ski patrols and emergency departments.^2–11 Rates of head and neck injuries have been reported between 0.09 and 0.46 per 1000 outings.¹² Head and neck injuries are disproportionately represented in cases of severe trauma, and traumatic brain injury is the leading cause of death and serious injury among skiers and snow-boarders.¹³ As far back as 1983, Oh and Schmid recommended mandatory helmet use for children while skiing.¹⁴Many studies of the relation between helmet use and head injuries among skiers and snowboarders have found a protective effect.^15–24 It has been suggested that the use of helmets may increase the risk of neck injury in a crash or fall.²⁵ This may be more evident among children because they have a greater head:body ratio than adults, and the additional size and weight of the helmet may increase the risk of neck injury in an otherwise routine fall.²⁶ We conducted a systematic review of the effect of helmets on head and neck injuries among skiers and snowboarders.     

Small scale genetic alterations contribute to increased mutability at the X-linked Hprt locus in vivo in Blm hypomorphic mice

BLM, the gene mutated in Bloom syndrome (BS), encodes an ATP-dependent RecQ DNA helicase that is involved in the resolution of Holliday junctions, in the suppression of crossovers and in the management of damaged replication forks. Cells from BS patients have a characteristically high level of sister chromatid exchanges (SCEs), and increased chromosomal aberrations. Fibroblasts and lymphocytes of BS patients also exhibit increased mutation frequency at the X-linked reporter gene HPRT, suggesting that BLM also plays a role in preventing small scale genomic rearrangements. However, the nature of such small scale alterations has not been well characterized. Here we report the characterization of Hprt mutations in vivo in Blm hypomorphic mice, Blm^tm1Ches/Blm^tm3Brd. We found that the frequency of Hprt mutants was increased about 6-fold in the Blm^tm1Ches/Blm^tm3Brd mice when compared to Blm^tm3Brd heterozygous mice or wildtype mice. Molecular characterization of Hprt gene in the mutant clones indicates that many of the mutations were caused by deletions that range from several base pairs to several thousand base pairs. While deletions in BLM-proficient somatic cells are often shown to be mediated by direct repeats, all three deletion junctions in Hprt of Blm^tm1Ches/Blm^tm3Brd mice were flanked by inverted repeats, suggesting that secondary structures formed during DNA replication, when resolved improperly, may lead to deletions. In addition, single base pair substitution and insertion/deletion were also detected in the mutant clones. Taken together, our results indicated that BLM function is important in preventing small scale genetic alterations. Thus, both large scale and small scale genetic alterations are elevated when BLM is reduced, which may contribute to loss of function of tumor suppressor genes and subsequent tumorigenesis.