The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model

BackgroundProgrammatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates.ConclusionsIt is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning.     

Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.

Methods and Findings

Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible–infected–recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R ₀, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16.

Conclusions

The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden.     

Detecting Dysglycemia Using the 2015 United States Preventive Services Task Force Screening Criteria: A Cohort Analysis of Community Health Center Patients

BackgroundIn 2015, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended targeted screening for prediabetes and diabetes (dysglycemia) in adults who are aged 40 to 70 y old and overweight or obese. Given increasing prevalence of dysglycemia at younger ages and lower body weight, particularly among racial/ethnic minorities, we sought to determine whether the current screening criteria may fail to identify some high-risk population subgroups.ConclusionsTargeted diabetes screening based on new USPSTF criteria may detect approximately half of adult community health center patients with undiagnosed dysglycemia and proportionately fewer racial/ethnic minorities than whites. Future research is needed to estimate the performance of these screening criteria in population-based samples.     

Uptake of Home-Based HIV Testing,Linkage to Care,and Community Attitudes about ART in Rural KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa: Descriptive Results from the First Phase of the ANRS 12249 TasP Cluster-Randomised Trial

BackgroundThe 2015 WHO recommendation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all immediately following HIV diagnosis is partially based on the anticipated impact on HIV incidence in the surrounding population. We investigated this approach in a cluster-randomised trial in a high HIV prevalence setting in rural KwaZulu-Natal. We present findings from the first phase of the trial and report on uptake of home-based HIV testing, linkage to care, uptake of ART, and community attitudes about ART.ConclusionsHome-based HIV testing was well received in this rural population, although men were less easily contactable at home; immediate ART was acceptable, with good viral suppression and retention. However, only about half of HIV-positive people accessed care within 6 mo of being identified, with nearly two-thirds accessing care by 12 mo. The observed delay in linkage to care would limit the individual and public health ART benefits of universal testing and treatment in this population.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01509508","term_id":"NCT01509508"}}NCT01509508     

How fast is fast? Eco‐evolutionary dynamics and rates of change in populations and phenotypes

It is increasingly recognized that evolution may occur in ecological time. It is not clear, however, how fast evolution – or phenotypic change more generally – may be in comparison with the associated ecology, or whether systems with fast ecological dynamics generally have relatively fast rates of phenotypic change. We developed a new dataset on standardized rates of change in population size and phenotypic traits for a wide range of species and taxonomic groups. We show that rates of change in phenotypes are generally no more than 2/3, and on average about 1/4, the concurrent rates of change in population size. There was no relationship between rates of population change and rates of phenotypic change across systems. We also found that the variance of both phenotypic and ecological rates increased with the mean across studies following a power law with an exponent of two, while temporal variation in phenotypic rates was lower than in ecological rates. Our results are consistent with the view that ecology and evolution may occur at similar time scales, but clarify that only rarely do populations change as fast in traits as they do in abundance.     

High‐throughput sequencing and graph‐based cluster analysis facilitate microsatellite development from a highly complex genome

Despite recent advances in high‐throughput sequencing, difficulties are often encountered when developing microsatellites for species with large and complex genomes. This probably reflects the close association in many species of microsatellites with cryptic repetitive elements. We therefore developed a novel approach for isolating polymorphic microsatellites from the club‐legged grasshopper (Gomphocerus sibiricus), an emerging quantitative genetic and behavioral model system. Whole genome shotgun Illumina MiSeq sequencing was used to generate over three million 300 bp paired‐end reads, of which 67.75% were grouped into 40,548 clusters within RepeatExplorer. Annotations of the top 468 clusters, which represent 60.5% of the reads, revealed homology to satellite DNA and a variety of transposable elements. Evaluating 96 primer pairs in eight wild‐caught individuals, we found that primers mined from singleton reads were six times more likely to amplify a single polymorphic microsatellite locus than primers mined from clusters. Our study provides experimental evidence in support of the notion that microsatellites associated with repetitive elements are less likely to successfully amplify. It also reveals how advances in high‐throughput sequencing and graph‐based repetitive DNA analysis can be leveraged to isolate polymorphic microsatellites from complex genomes.     

Acceptability of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) among Male Sexually Transmitted Diseases Patients (MSTDP) in China

Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) is an evidence-based, yet under-utilized biomedical HIV intervention in China. No study has investigated acceptability of VMMC among male sexually transmitted diseases patients (MSTDP) who are at high risk of HIV transmission. A cross-sectional survey interviewed 350 HIV negative heterosexual MSTDP in Shenzhen, China; 12.0% (n = 42) of them were circumcised at the time of survey. When the uncircumcised participants (n = 308) were informed that VMMC could reduce the risk of HIV infection via heterosexual intercourse by 50%, the prevalence of acceptability of VMMC in the next six months was 46.1%. Adjusted for significant background variables, significant factors of acceptability of VMMC included: 1) emotional variables: the Emotional Representation Subscale (adjusted odds ratios, AOR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.06–1.18), 2) cognitive variables derived from Health Belief Model (HBM): perceived some chance of having sex with HIV positive women in the next 12 months (AOR = 2.48, 95%CI: 1.15–5.33) (perceived susceptibility), perceived severity of STD infection (AOR = 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02–1.10), perceived benefit of VMMC in risk reduction (AOR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.16–1.42) and sexual performance (AOR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.26–1.71), perceived barriers against taking up VMMC (AOR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81–0.95), and perceived cue to action (AOR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.23–1.61) and self-efficacy (AOR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.26–1.35) related to taking up VMMC. The association between perceived severity of STD infection and acceptability was fully mediated by emotional representation of STD infection. The relatively low prevalence of circumcision and high acceptability suggested that the situation was favorable for implementing VMMC as a means of HIV intervention among MSTDP in China. HBM is a potential suitable framework to guide the design of future VMMC promotion. Future implementation programs should be conducted in STD clinic settings, taking the important findings of this study into account.     

The Allometry of Bee Proboscis Length and Its Uses in Ecology

Allometric relationships among morphological traits underlie important patterns in ecology. These relationships are often phylogenetically shared; thus quantifying allometric relationships may allow for estimating difficult-to-measure traits across species. One such trait, proboscis length in bees, is assumed to be important in structuring bee communities and plant-pollinator networks. However, it is difficult to measure and thus rarely included in ecological analyses. We measured intertegular distance (as a measure of body size) and proboscis length (glossa and prementum, both individually and combined) of 786 individual bees of 100 species across 5 of the 7 extant bee families (Hymenoptera: Apoidea: Anthophila). Using linear models and model selection, we determined which parameters provided the best estimate of proboscis length. We then used coefficients to estimate the relationship between intertegular distance and proboscis length, while also considering family. Using allometric equations with an estimation for a scaling coefficient between intertegular distance and proboscis length and coefficients for each family, we explain 91% of the variance in species-level means for bee proboscis length among bee species. However, within species, individual-level intertegular distance was a poor predictor of individual proboscis length. To make our findings easy to use, we created an R package that allows estimation of proboscis length for individual bee species by inputting only family and intertegular distance. The R package also calculates foraging distance and body mass based on previously published equations. Thus by considering both taxonomy and intertegular distance we enable accurate estimation of an ecologically and evolutionarily important trait.     

Incidence of Co-Infections of HIV,Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 and Syphilis in a Large Cohort of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Beijing,China

Background

The HIV-epidemic among MSM in China has worsened. In this key population, prevalence of HSV-2 and syphilis infection and co-infection with HIV is high.

Methods

A longitudinal study was conducted (n = 962) in Beijing, China, with three overlapping cohorts (n = 857, 757 and 760) consisting of MSM that were free from pairs of infections of concern (i.e. HIV-HSV-2, HIV-syphilis, HSV-2-syphilis) at baseline to estimate incidence of HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and those of co-infection.

Results

The incidence of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis in the overall cohort was 3.90 (95% CI = 2.37, 5.43), 7.87 (95% CI = 5.74, 10.00) and 6.06 (95% CI = 4.18, 7.94) cases per 100 person-years (PYs), respectively. The incidence of HIV-HSV-2, HIV-Syphilis and HSV-2-Syphilis co-infections was 0.30 (95% CI = 0.29, 0.88), 1.02 (95% CI = 0.13, 2.17) and 1.41 (95% CI: 0.04, 2.78) cases per 100 PYs, respectively, in the three sub-cohorts constructed for this study.

Conclusions

The incidence of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis was very high and those of their co-infections were relatively high. Such co-infections have negative impacts on the HIV/STI epidemics. Prevention practices need to take such co-infections into account.     

Simulating Serial-Target Antibacterial Drug Synergies Using Flux Balance Analysis

Flux balance analysis (FBA) is an increasingly useful approach for modeling the behavior of metabolic systems. However, standard FBA modeling of genetic knockouts cannot predict drug combination synergies observed between serial metabolic targets, even though such synergies give rise to some of the most widely used antibiotic treatments. Here we extend FBA modeling to simulate responses to chemical inhibitors at varying concentrations, by diverting enzymatic flux to a waste reaction. This flux diversion yields very similar qualitative predictions to prior methods for single target activity. However, we find very different predictions for combinations, where flux diversion, which mimics the kinetics of competitive metabolic inhibitors, can explain serial target synergies between metabolic enzyme inhibitors that we confirmed in Escherichia coli cultures. FBA flux diversion opens the possibility for more accurate genome-scale predictions of drug synergies, which can be used to suggest treatments for infections and other diseases.