The impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co‐benefits with and trade‐offs against different social and environmental goals have been difficult without comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined 40 different options, implemented through land management, value chains, or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We find that a relatively small number of interventions show positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs with no significant adverse trade‐offs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, integrated water management, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization, and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, reduced post‐harvest losses, improved energy use in food systems, and disaster risk management. Several interventions show potentially significant negative impacts on both SDGs and NCPs; these include bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of co‐benefits and trade‐offs of different policy approaches can help decision‐makers choose the more effective, or at the very minimum, more benign interventions for implementation.     

Interface processes between protected and unprotected areas: A global review and ways forward

Land‐use changes and the expansion of protected areas (PAs) have amplified the interaction between protected and unprotected areas worldwide. In this context, ‘interface processes' (human–nature and cross‐boundary interactions inside and around PAs) have become central to issues around the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This scientific literature review aimed to explore current knowledge and research gaps on interface processes regarding terrestrial PAs. At first, 3,515 references related to the topic were extracted through a standardized search on the Web of Science and analyzed with scientometric techniques. Next, a full‐text analysis was conducted on a sample of 240 research papers. A keyword analysis revealed a wide diversity of research topics, from ‘pure' ecology to sociopolitical research. We found a bias in the geographical distribution of research, with half the papers focusing on eight countries. Additionally, we found that the spatial extent of cross‐boundary interactions was rarely assessed, preventing any clear delimitation of PA interactive zones. In the 240 research papers we scanned, we identified 403 processes that were studied. The ecological effects of PAs were well documented and appeared to be positive overall. In contrast, the effects of PAs on local communities were understudied and, according to the literature focusing on these, were very variable according to local contexts. Our findings highlight key research advances on interface processes, especially regarding the ecological outcomes of PAs, the influence of human activities on biodiversity, and PA governance issues. In contrast, main knowledge gaps concern the spatial extent of interactive zones, as well as the interactions between local people and conservation actions and how to promote synergies between them. While the review was limited to terrestrial PAs, its findings allow us to propose research priorities for tackling environmental and socioeconomic challenges in the face of a rapidly changing world.     

Hotspots of biotic compositional change in lakes along vast latitudinal transects in northern Canada

Ecotones mark zones of rapid change in ecological structure at various spatial scales. They are believed to be particularly susceptible to shifts caused by environmental transformation, making them key regions for studying the effects of global change. Here, we explored the variation in assemblage structure of aquatic primary producer and consumer communities across latitudinal transects in northeastern North America (Québec‐Labrador) to identify spatial patterns in biodiversity that indicated the location of transition zones across the landscape. We analyzed species richness and the cumulative rate of compositional change (expressed as beta‐diversity) of diatoms and chironomids to detect any abrupt shifts in the rate of spatial taxonomic turnover. We used principal coordinates analysis to estimate community turnover with latitude, then applied piecewise linear regression to assess the position of ecotones. Statistically significant changes in assemblage composition occurred at 52 and 55°N, corresponding to the transition between closed‐ and open‐crown forest, and to the southern onset of the forest tundra (i.e., the forest limit), respectively. The spatial distribution of ecotones was most strongly related to air temperature for chironomids and to vegetation‐ and soil‐related chemical attributes of lake water for diatoms, including dissolved organic carbon content and water color. Lakes at mid‐ to high‐latitudes currently face pressures from rapidly rising temperatures, accompanied by large increases in organic carbon inputs from their catchments, often leading to browning and its associated effects. The biota at the base of food webs in lakes located in transition zones are disproportionately affected by the cascading effects of these multi‐factorial changes, concurrent with pronounced terrestrial greening observed in these regions. Similar patterns of biotic shifts have been observed along alpine aquatic transects, indicating the potential for widespread restructuring of cold, high‐altitude and high‐latitude freshwater communities due to global change.     

Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials,risks and trade‐offs

Afforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO₂/year at 200 US$/tCO₂ in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO₂ cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

Origin of volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under global warming

Warming occurs in the Arctic twice as fast as the global average, which in turn leads to a large enhancement in terpenoid emissions from vegetation. Volatile terpenoids are the main class of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that play crucial roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate. However, the biochemical mechanisms behind the temperature‐dependent increase in VOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems are largely unexplored. Using ¹³CO₂‐labeling, we studied the origin of VOCs and the carbon (C) allocation under global warming in the soil–plant–atmosphere system of contrasting subarctic heath tundra vegetation communities characterized by dwarf shrubs of the genera Salix or Betula. The projected temperature rise of the subarctic summer by 5°C was realistically simulated in sophisticated climate chambers. VOC emissions strongly depended on the plant species composition of the heath tundra. Warming caused increased VOC emissions and significant changes in the pattern of volatiles toward more reactive hydrocarbons. The ¹³C was incorporated to varying degrees in different monoterpene and sesquiterpene isomers. We found that de novo monoterpene biosynthesis contributed to 40%–44% (Salix) and 60%–68% (Betula) of total monoterpene emissions under the current climate, and that warming increased the contribution to 50%–58% (Salix) and 87%–95% (Betula). Analyses of above‐ and belowground ^12/13C showed shifts of C allocation in the plant–soil systems and negative effects of warming on C sequestration by lowering net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ and increasing C loss as VOCs. This comprehensive analysis provides the scientific basis for mechanistically understanding the processes controlling terpenoid emissions, required for modeling VOC emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and predicting the future chemistry of the arctic atmosphere. By changing the chemical composition and loads of VOCs into the atmosphere, the current data indicate that global warming in the Arctic may have implications for regional and global climate and for the delicate tundra ecosystems.     

Exploring movement patterns and changing distributions of baleen whales in the western North Atlantic using a decade of passive acoustic data

Six baleen whale species are found in the temperate western North Atlantic Ocean, with limited information existing on the distribution and movement patterns for most. There is mounting evidence of distributional shifts in many species, including marine mammals, likely because of climate‐driven changes in ocean temperature and circulation. Previous acoustic studies examined the occurrence of minke (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and North Atlantic right whales (NARW; Eubalaena glacialis). This study assesses the acoustic presence of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), sei (B. borealis), fin (B. physalus), and blue whales (B. musculus) over a decade, based on daily detections of their vocalizations. Data collected from 2004 to 2014 on 281 bottom‐mounted recorders, totaling 35,033 days, were processed using automated detection software and screened for each species' presence. A published study on NARW acoustics revealed significant changes in occurrence patterns between the periods of 2004–2010 and 2011–2014; therefore, these same time periods were examined here. All four species were present from the Southeast United States to Greenland; humpback whales were also present in the Caribbean. All species occurred throughout all regions in the winter, suggesting that baleen whales are widely distributed during these months. Each of the species showed significant changes in acoustic occurrence after 2010. Similar to NARWs, sei whales had higher acoustic occurrence in mid‐Atlantic regions after 2010. Fin, blue, and sei whales were more frequently detected in the northern latitudes of the study area after 2010. Despite this general northward shift, all four species were detected less on the Scotian Shelf area after 2010, matching documented shifts in prey availability in this region. A decade of acoustic observations have shown important distributional changes over the range of baleen whales, mirroring known climatic shifts and identifying new habitats that will require further protection from anthropogenic threats like fixed fishing gear, shipping, and noise pollution.     

Towards the integration of animal‐borne instruments into global ocean observing systems

Marine animals are increasingly instrumented with environmental sensors that provide large volumes of oceanographic data. Here, we conduct an innovative and comprehensive global analysis to determine the potential contribution of animal‐borne instruments (ABI) into ocean observing systems (OOSs) and provide a foundation to establish future integrated ocean monitoring programmes. We analyse the current gaps of the long‐term Argo observing system (>1.5 million profiles) and assess its spatial overlap with the distribution of marine animals across eight major species groups (tuna and billfishes, sharks and rays, marine turtles, pinnipeds, cetaceans, sirenians, flying seabirds and penguins). We combine distribution ranges of 183 species and satellite tracking observations from >3,000 animals. Our analyses identify potential areas where ABI could complement OOS. Specifically, ABI have the potential to fill gaps in marginal seas, upwelling areas, the upper 10 m of the water column, shelf regions and polewards of 60° latitude. Our approach provides the global baseline required to plan the integration of ABI into global and regional OOS while integrating conservation and ocean monitoring priorities.     

Reforestation and surface cooling in temperate zones: Mechanisms and implications

Land‐use/cover change (LUCC) is an important driver of environmental change, occurring at the same time as, and often interacting with, global climate change. Reforestation and deforestation have been critical aspects of LUCC over the past two centuries and are widely studied for their potential to perturb the global carbon cycle. More recently, there has been keen interest in understanding the extent to which reforestation affects terrestrial energy cycling and thus surface temperature directly by altering surface physical properties (e.g., albedo and emissivity) and land–atmosphere energy exchange. The impacts of reforestation on land surface temperature and their mechanisms are relatively well understood in tropical and boreal climates, but the effects of reforestation on warming and/or cooling in temperate zones are less certain. This study is designed to elucidate the biophysical mechanisms that link land cover and surface temperature in temperate ecosystems. To achieve this goal, we used data from six paired eddy‐covariance towers over co‐located forests and grasslands in the temperate eastern United States, where radiation components, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and meteorological conditions were measured. The results show that, at the annual time scale, the surface of the forests is 1–2°C cooler than grasslands, indicating a substantial cooling effect of reforestation. The enhanced latent and sensible heat fluxes of forests have an average cooling effect of ?2.5°C, which offsets the net warming effect (+1.5°C) of albedo warming (+2.3°C) and emissivity cooling effect (?0.8°C) associated with surface properties. Additional daytime cooling over forests is driven by local feedbacks to incoming radiation. We further show that the forest cooling effect is most pronounced when land surface temperature is higher, often exceeding ?5°C. Our results contribute important observational evidence that reforestation in the temperate zone offers opportunities for local climate mitigation and adaptation.     

Evidence of non‐stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests

Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non‐stationary (i.e. non‐time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above‐ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above‐ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non‐stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above‐ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.