Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline

Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.     

Behavioral and Emotional Dynamics of Two People Struggling to Reach Consensus about a Topic on Which They Disagree

We studied the behavioral and emotional dynamics displayed by two people trying to resolve a conflict. 59 groups of two people were asked to talk for 20 minutes to try to reach a consensus about a topic on which they disagreed. The topics were abortion, affirmative action, death penalty, and euthanasia. Behavior data were determined from audio recordings where each second of the conversation was assessed as proself, neutral, or prosocial. We determined the probability density function of the durations of time spent in each behavioral state. These durations were well fit by a stretched exponential distribution, with an exponent, , of approximately 0.3. This indicates that the switching between behavioral states is not a random Markov process, but one where the probability to switch behavioral states decreases with the time already spent in that behavioral state. The degree of this “memory” was stronger in those groups who did not reach a consensus and where the conflict grew more destructive than in those that did. Emotion data were measured by having each person listen to the audio recording and moving a computer mouse to recall their negative or positive emotional valence at each moment in the conversation. We used the Hurst rescaled range analysis and power spectrum to determine the correlations in the fluctuations of the emotional valence. The emotional valence was well described by a random walk whose increments were uncorrelated. Thus, the behavior data demonstrated a “memory” of the duration already spent in a behavioral state while the emotion data fluctuated as a random walk whose steps did not have a “memory” of previous steps. This work demonstrates that statistical analysis, more commonly used to analyze physical phenomena, can also shed interesting light on the dynamics of processes in social psychology and conflict management.     

Apolipoprotein E and diets: a case of gene-nutrient interaction?

Apolipoprotein E has key functions in lipoprotein metabolism, and polymorphisms in the apolipoprotein E gene are associated with distinct lipoprotein patterns. The possibility of gene-nutrient interactions for apolipoprotein E has been addressed in many studies. Although results have generally been mixed, the indications for such an interaction have been more common in studies employing a metabolic challenge. Studies directly designed to examine apolipoprotein E gene-nutrient interactions are needed.     

BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS IN EUROPE

Books reviewed:
Kowarik I., Biologische Invasionen: Neophyten und Neozoen in Mitteleuropa .     

Methods of tracing hydrogen in polyketide biosynthesis: High field NMR spectroscopy of citrinin produced in a D2O based medium

Penicillium citrinum cultures have been germinated on an H₂O-based medium, resuspended on a D₂O-based medium and treated with [l,2-¹³C₂] acetate. The resulting citrinin (1) has been analysed by²H and¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and information about the metabolism of hydrogen in citrinin biosynthesis has been deduced.     

Genetic association between nest building and brown adipose tissue thermogenesis in female house mice

Summary Mice selectively bred for either high or low levels of thermoregulatory nest building were cold-acclimated (5°C) for 3 weeks without nesting material; then body weight and food intake were measured. The mice selected for low nest building (Lows) of both sexes showed lower feed efficiencies than the high nest-building mice (Highs), although their body weights were not significantly different (Table 1). This adds to a large body of evidence which suggests that nest building and feed efficiency were influenced by a common mechanism (Lacy et al. 1978; Sulzbach and Lynch 1984; Lunch et al. 1981; Lynch and Roberts 1984).Brown adipose tissue mitochondrial GDP binding and cytochrome c oxidase activity were measured in the above mice. In females, the Lows had 100% higher levels of total GDP binding than the Highs, while no difference between the lines was seen in males (Fig. 2). Thus in the High females, lower energy expenditure through brown fat thermogenesis may account for their greater feed efficiency. In males, the genetic differences in feed efficiency must be due to differences in either thermogenesis in tissues other than brown fat, or mechanisms which reduce heat loss.Abbreviations Highs Mice from lines selectively bred for high levels of nest-building;Lows mice from the low nest-building selected lines