Linking mosquito surveillance to dengue fever through Bayesian mechanistic modeling

Our ability to effectively prevent the transmission of the dengue virus through targeted control of its vector, Aedes aegypti, depends critically on our understanding of the link between mosquito abundance and human disease risk. Mosquito and clinical surveillance data are widely collected, but linking them requires a modeling framework that accounts for the complex non-linear mechanisms involved in transmission. Most critical are the bottleneck in transmission imposed by mosquito lifespan relative to the virus’ extrinsic incubation period, and the dynamics of human immunity. We developed a differential equation model of dengue transmission and embedded it in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that allowed us to estimate latent time series of mosquito demographic rates from mosquito trap counts and dengue case reports from the city of Vitória, Brazil. We used the fitted model to explore how the timing of a pulse of adult mosquito control influences its effect on the human disease burden in the following year. We found that control was generally more effective when implemented in periods of relatively low mosquito mortality (when mosquito abundance was also generally low). In particular, control implemented in early September (week 34 of the year) produced the largest reduction in predicted human case reports over the following year. This highlights the potential long-term utility of broad, off-peak-season mosquito control in addition to existing, locally targeted within-season efforts. Further, uncertainty in the effectiveness of control interventions was driven largely by posterior variation in the average mosquito mortality rate (closely tied to total mosquito abundance) with lower mosquito mortality generating systems more vulnerable to control. Broadly, these correlations suggest that mosquito control is most effective in situations in which transmission is already limited by mosquito abundance.     

Sunshine versus gold: The effect of population age on genetic structure of an invasive mosquito

The genetic diversity and structure of invasive species are affected by the time since invasion, but it is not well understood how. We compare likely the oldest populations of Aedes aegypti in continental North America with some of the newest to illuminate the range of genetic diversity and structure that can be found within the invasive range of this important disease vector. Aedes aegypti populations in Florida have probably persisted since the 1600‐1700s, while populations in southern California derive from new invasions that occurred in the last 10 years. For this comparison, we genotyped 1,193 individuals from 28 sites at 12 highly variable microsatellites and a subset of these individuals at 23,961 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This is the largest sample analyzed for genetic structure for either region, and it doubles the number of southern California populations previously analyzed. As predicted, the older populations (Florida) showed fewer indicators of recent founder effect and bottlenecks; in particular, these populations have dramatically higher genetic diversity and lower genetic structure. Geographic distance and driving distance were not good predictors of genetic distance in either region, especially southern California. Additionally, southern California had higher levels of genetic differentiation than any comparably sized documented region throughout the worldwide distribution of the species. Although population age and demographic history are likely driving these differences, differences in climate and transportation practices could also play a role.     

Large‐scale patterns of seed removal by small mammals differ between areas of low‐ versus high‐wolf occupancy

Because most tree species recruit from seeds, seed predation by small‐mammal granivores may be important for determining plant distribution and regeneration in forests. Despite the importance of seed predation, large‐scale patterns of small‐mammal granivory are often highly variable and thus difficult to predict. We hypothesize distributions of apex predators can create large‐scale variation in the distribution and abundance of mesopredators that consume small mammals, creating predictable areas of high and low granivory. For example, because gray wolf (Canis lupus) territories are characterized by relatively less use by coyotes (C. latrans) and greater use by foxes (Vulpes vulpes, Urocyon cinereoargentus) that consume a greater proportion of small mammals, wolf territories may be areas of reduced small‐mammal granivory. Using large‐scale, multiyear field trials at 22 sites with high‐ and low‐wolf occupancy in northern Wisconsin, we evaluated whether removal of seeds of four tree species was lower in wolf territories. Consistent with the hypothesized consequences of wolf occupancy, seed removal of three species was more than 25% lower in high‐wolf‐occupancy areas across 2 years and small‐mammal abundance was more than 40% lower in high‐wolf areas during one of two study years. These significant results, in conjunction with evidence of seed consumption in situ and the absence of significant habitat differences between high‐ and low‐wolf areas, suggest that top‐down effects of wolves on small‐mammal granivory and seed survival may occur. Understanding how interactions among carnivores create spatial patterns in interactions among lower trophic levels may allow for more accurate predictions of large‐scale patterns in seed survival and forest composition.     

Ranking buffel: Comparative risk and mitigation costs of key environmental and socio‐cultural threats in central Australia

Changed fire regimes and the introduction of rabbits, cats, foxes, and large exotic herbivores have driven widespread ecological catastrophe in Australian arid and semi‐arid zones, which encompass over two‐thirds of the continent. These threats have caused the highest global mammal extinction rates in the last 200 years, as well as significantly undermining social, economic, and cultural practices of Aboriginal peoples of this region. However, a new and potentially more serious threat is emerging. Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) is a globally significant invader now widespread across central Australia, but the threat this ecological transformer species poses to biodiversity, ecosystem function, and culture has received relatively little attention. Our analyses suggest threats from buffel grass in arid and semi‐arid areas of Australia are at least equivalent in magnitude to those posed by invasive animals and possibly higher, because unlike these more recognized threats, buffel has yet to occupy its potential distribution. Buffel infestation also increases the intensity and frequency of wildfires that affect biodiversity, cultural pursuits, and productivity. We compare the logistical and financial challenges of creating and maintaining areas free of buffel for the protection of biodiversity and cultural values, with the creation and maintenance of refuges from introduced mammals or from large‐scale fire in natural habitats. The scale and expense of projected buffel management costs highlight the urgent policy, research, and financing initiatives essential to safeguard threatened species, ecosystems, and cultural values of Aboriginal people in central Australia.     

Integration of high-throughput analytics and cell imaging enables direct early productivity and product quality assessment during Chinese Hamster ovary cell line development for a complex multi-subunit vaccine antigen

Mammalian cell line generation typically includes stable pool generation, single cell cloning and several rounds of clone selection based on cell growth, productivity and product quality criteria. Individual clone expansion and phenotype-based ranking is performed initially for hundreds or thousands of mini-scale cultures, representing the major operational challenge during cell line development. Automated cell culture and analytics systems have been developed to enable high complexity clone selection workflows; while ensuring traceability, safety, and quality of cell lines intended for biopharmaceutical applications. Here we show that comprehensive and quantitative assessment of cell growth, productivity, and product quality attributes are feasible at the 200–1,200 cell colony stage, within 14 days of the single cell cloning in static 96-well plate culture. The early cell line characterization performed prior to the clone expansion in suspension culture can be used for a single-step, direct selection of high quality clones. Such clones were comparable, both in terms of productivity and critical quality attributes (CQAs), to the top-ranked clones identified using an established iterative clone screening approach. Using a complex, multi-subunit antigen as a model protein, we observed stable CQA profiles independently of the cell culture format during the clonal expansion as well as in the batch and fed-batch processes. In conclusion, we propose an accelerated clone selection approach that can be readily incorporated into various cell line development workstreams, leading to significant reduction of the project timelines and resource requirements.     

Sensitivity of soil organic matter to climate and fire in a desert grassland

Biogeochemistry - Drylands contain a third of the organic carbon stored in global soils; however, the long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon in drylands remain poorly understood relative to...