Parameter Identifiability and Model Selection in Capture-Recapture Models: A Numerical Approach

Capture-recapture models are a powerful tool for estimating and comparing survival probabilities among groups of individuals in wild animal populations. One of the remaining problems is the calculation of the number of independently estimable parameters in the models, which is necessary in using model selection tools such as Likelihood ratio tests or the Akaike's Information Criterion. We show that the number of separately identifiable parameters in a model is equal to the rank of the Hessian matrix (second derivatives of the maximum likelihood relative to the parameters). We present the numerical problems involved in computing the Hessian and its numerical rank, and we apply the technique to data on nesting swifts (Apus apus).     

Food availability and nest predation influence life history traits in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii

The effects of food availability and nest predation on several life history traits such as adult survival, dispersal, and reproductive performance were assessed in an Audouin's gull (Larus audouinii) colony during the period 1992–1997. The amounts of fish discarded from trawlers were used as a measure of food availability, and a trawling moratorium which partially overlapped with the breeding season of the gulls was taken into account. The effects of nest predation were assessed in 1994, when a terrestrial predator entered the colony and remained for the whole breeding season preying on both eggs and chicks. Using the moratorium and the predatory event as natural experiments, several hypotheses were tested: (a) food supply would affect breeding performance but not adult survival (independently of age and sex), since gulls are long-lived and adult survival is the most sensitive demographic parameter in their population dynamics; (b) the predator would trigger breeding dispersal (although gulls are mostly philopatric, they are known to abandon their natal colony after breeding failure instigated by events such as this). If breeding dispersal occurs, the rate is expected to be higher in females than in males, and higher in new breeders than in more experienced breeding birds, as is usually recorded in colonial seabirds. Probabilities of resighting and survival were estimated separately, using capture-recapture models. As expected, changes in food availability did not affect adult survival, whereas they influenced egg volume, clutch size, and breeding success. Local adult survival was estimated to be 0.908 (SD = 0.007) for males and females, and it did not change significantly with the age of individuals (range 3–8 years). The predator significantly decreased breeding success, and caused the dispersal of a number of adults probably to breed in another colony; this rate was estimated at an average of 0.10 (SD = 0.02). As expected, inexperienced breeders dispersed significantly more (14%) than more experienced breeders (8%) after the predator event, but dispersal was not sex biased. Recapture probabilities after the predator event suggest that birds that left the colony still had not returned. Results confirm that population dynamics of ground-nesting seabirds are sensitive to terrestrial predation, even when predation caused only a partial breeding failure. Received: 16 July 1998 / Accepted: 16 November 1998     

Enhanced hippocampal long-term potentiation and learning by increased neuronal expression of tissue-type plasminogen activator in transgenic mice.

Adult cortical neurons can produce tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA), an extracellular protease that plays a critical role in fibrinolysis and tissue remodelling processes. There is growing evidence that extracellular proteolysis may be involved in synaptic plasticity, axonal remodelling and neurotoxicity in the adult central nervous system. Here we show that transgenic mice overexpressing tPA in post-natal neurons have increased and prolonged hippocampal long-term potentiation (LTP), and improved performance in spatial orientation learning tasks. Extracellular proteolysis catalysed by tPA may facilitate synaptic micro-remodelling, and thereby play a role in activity-dependent neuronal plasticity and learning.     

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.     

Pelagic Life and Depth: Coastal Physical Features in West Africa Shape the Genetic Structure of the Bonga Shad,Ethmalosa fimbriata

The bonga shad, Ethmalosa fimbriata, is a West African pelagic species still abundant in most habitats of its distribution range and thought to be only recently affected by anthropogenic pressure (habitat destruction or fishing pressure). Its presence in a wide range of coastal habitats characterised by different hydrodynamic processes, represents a case study useful for evaluating the importance of physical structure of the west African shoreline on the genetic structure of a small pelagic species. To investigate this question, the genetic diversity of E. fimbriata was assessed at both regional and species range scales, using mitochondrial (mt) and nuclear DNA markers. Whereas only three panmictic units were identified with mtDNA at the large spatial scale, nuclear genetic markers (EPIC: exon-primed intron-crossing) indicated a more complex genetic pattern at the regional scale. In the northern-most section of shad’s distribution range, up to 4 distinct units were identified. Bayesian inference as well as spatial autocorrelation methods provided evidence that gene flow is impeded by the presence of deep-water areas near the coastline (restricting the width of the coastal shelf), such as the Cap Timiris and the Kayar canyons in Mauritania and Senegal, respectively. The added discriminatory power provided by the use of EPIC markers proved to be essential to detect the influence of more subtle, contemporary processes (e.g. gene flow, barriers, etc.) acting within the glacial refuges identified previously by mtDNA.     

Probing cytoskeleton organisation of neuroblastoma cells with single-cell force spectroscopy

Single-cell force spectroscopy is an emerging technique in the field of biomedicine because it has proved to be a unique tool to obtain mechanical and functional information on living cells, with force resolution up to single molecular bonds. This technique was applied to the study of the cytoskeleton organisation of neuroblastoma cells, a life-threatening cancer typically developing during childhood, and the results were interpreted on the basis of reference experiments on human embryonic kidney cell line. An intimate connection emerges among cellular state, cytoskeleton organisation and experimental outcome that can be potentially exploited towards a new method for cancer stadiation of neuroblastoma cells.