A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

DIATOM SILICA BIOMINERALIZATION: AT NANOSCALE LEVEL A CHEMICALLY UNIFORM PROCESS

Using a high-brilliance synchrotron X-ray source, combined small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS and WAXS) was applied to study nanoscale characteristics, in particular pore size in the range of 3 to 65 nm, of a variety of unialgal cultures of centric and pennate diatoms, and of mixed diatom populations sampled in the field. Results of scattering analysis were compared with details of pore size, structure and orientation visible at the electron microscopic level. WAXS patterns did not reveal any crystalline phase or features of microcrystallinity (resolution 0.07 to 0.51 nm), which implies a totally amorphous character of the SiO₂ matrix of the frustule material. SAXS data (resolution 3 to 65 nm) provided information on geometry, size, and distribution of pores in the silica. Overall, two pore regions were recognized that were common to the silica of all samples: the smallest (d less than 10 nm) regularly spaced and shaped spherically, the larger (up to 65 nm) being cylinders or slits. Apparently, at a nanoscale level diatomaceous silica is quite homologous among species, in agreement with the chemical principles of silica polymerization under the conditions of pH and precursor concentrations inside the silicon deposition vesicle. The final frustule "macro"-morphology is of course species-specific, being determined genetically. Synthetically-derived MCM-type silicas have a similarly organized pore distribution in an amorphous silica matrix as we found in all diatom species studied. We therefore suggest that organic molecules of a kind used as structure-directing agents to produce these artificial silicas play a role in the nucleation of the silica polymerization reaction and the shaping of pore morphology inside the silicon deposition vesicle of diatoms. Structure-directing molecules now await isolation from the SDV, followed by identification and characterisation by molecular techniques.     

Interactions Among Fuel Management,Species Composition,Bark Beetles,and Climate Change and the Potential Effects on Forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin

Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.     

Temperature influences the expression of fimbriae and flagella in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hafnia alvei</Emphasis> strains: an immunofluorescence study

Hafnia alvei, a Gram negative bacillus related to the Enterobacteriaceae family, is considered an opportunistic pathogen of several animal species and humans. In this communication, we describe fimbrial-like structures from different strains of H. alvei that cannot be easily ascribed to any of the previously reported fimbrial types in this species (type I or type III). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and immunofluorescence assays were carried out to study fimbriae and flagella in H. alvei strains isolated from different sources. No correlation between the results obtained by PCR and those obtained by phenotypic methods were found, and the antibodies used gave cross or different recognition patterns of the surface structures present in these strains. We report as well that strain and growth temperature influence fimbriation and expression of flagella in human and animal isolates of H. alvei. This study also indicates that the absence of fimbriae have a significant positive influence on the initial adhesion of H. alvei to human epithelial cells.     

Determination of deuterium-labeled tryptophan in proteins by means of high-performance liquid chromatography and thermospray mass spectrometry

In order to develop direct methods for determining the extent of metabolic incorporation of isotopically labeled amino acids into a protein, the determination of deuterated tryptophan in [2H5]tryptophan-bacteriorhodopsin was investigated. The isotopically modified protein was subjected to alkaline hydrolysis. After phenyl isothiocyanate derivatization of the hydrolysate, the mixture was separated by reversed-phase liquid chromatography. Field desorption mass spectrometry and thermospray mass spectrometry were investigated for their ability to determine the ratio between [2H5]tryptophan and total tryptophan in the collected fractions. In order to check the procedure a set of known tryptophan/[2H5]tryptophan mixtures were passed through the same derivatization, HPLC separation, and lyophilization procedure as used for the biological samples.     

Thermal analysis of the dentine tubule under hot and cold stimuli using fluid–structure interaction simulation

The objective of this study is to compare the thermal stress changes in the tooth microstructures and the hydrodynamic changes of the dental fluid under hot and cold stimuli. The dimension of the microstructures of eleven cats’ teeth was measured by scanning electron microscopy, and the changes in thermal stress during cold and hot stimulation were calculated by 3D fluid–structure interaction modeling. Evaluation of results, following data validation, indicated that the maximum velocities in cold and hot stimuli were ??410.2?±?17.6 and +?205.1?±?8.7 µm/s, respectively. The corresponding data for maximum thermal stress were ??20.27?±?0.79 and +?10.13?±?0.24 cmHg, respectively. The thermal stress caused by cold stimulus could influence almost 2.9 times faster than that caused by hot stimulus, and the durability of the thermal stress caused by hot stimulus was 71% greater than that by cold stimulus under similar conditions. The maximum stress was on the tip of the odontoblast, while the stress in lateral walls of the odontoblast and terminal fibril was very weak. There is hence a higher possibility of pain transmission with activation of stress-sensitive ion channels at the tip of the odontoblast. The maximum thermal stress resulted from the cold stimulus is double that produced by the hot stimulus. There is a higher possibility of pain transmission in the lateral walls of the odontoblast and terminal fibril by releasing mediators during the cold stimulation than the hot stimulation. These two reasons can be associated with a greater pain sensation due to intake of cold liquids.     

Effects of NaCl and iso-osmotic PEG stress on growth,osmolytes accumulation and antioxidant defense in cultured sugarcane cells

In order to discriminate between the ionic and osmotic components of salt stress, sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L. cv. Co 86032) calli were cultured on media containing NaCl or polyethylene glycol (PEG) 8000 that exerted the same osmotic pressure (−0.7 MPa). PEG stress exposure for 15 days led to significant growth reduction and loss in water content than salt stressed and control tissues. Osmotic adjustment (OA) was observed in callus tissues grown on salt, but was not evident in callus grown on PEG. Oxidative damage to membranes, estimated in terms of accumulation of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances-TBARS and electrolytic leakage was significantly higher in both the stressed calli than the control however, the extent of damage was more in the PEG stressed calli. The stressed callus tissues showed inhibition of ascorbate peroxidase activity, while catalase activity was increased. These results indicate sensitivity of cells to PEG-mediated stress than salt stress and differences in their OA to these two stress conditions. The sensitivity to the osmotic stress indicate that expression of the stress tolerance response requires the coordinated action of different tissues in a plant and hence was not expressed at the cellular level.