Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude × longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long‐term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics.     

Global climate patterns explain range-wide synchronicity in survival of a migratory seabird

To predict the impact of climate change over the whole species distribution range, comparison of adult survival variations over large spatial scale is of primary concern for long-lived species populations that are particularly susceptible to decline if adult survival is reduced. In this study, we estimated and compared adult survival rates between 1989 and 1997 of six populations of Cory's shearwater ( Calonectris diomedea ) spread across 4600 km using capture–recapture models. We showed that mean annual adult survival rates are different among populations along a longitudinal gradient and between sexes. Variation in adult survival is synchronized among populations, with three distinct groups: (1) both females and males of Corsica, Tremiti, and Selvagem (annual survival range 0.88–0.96); (2) both females and males of Frioul and females from Crete (0.82–0.92); and (3) both females and males of Malta and males from Crete (0.74–0.88). The total variation accounted for by the common pattern of variation is on average 71%, suggesting strong environmental forcing. At least 61% of the variation in survival is explained by the Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations. We suggested that Atlantic hurricanes and storms during La Niña years may increase adult mortality for Cory's shearwater during winter months. For long-lived seabird species, variation in adult survival is buffered against environmental variability, although extreme climate conditions such as storms significantly affect adult survival. The effect of climate at large spatial scales on adult survival during the nonbreeding period may lead to synchronization of variation in adult survival over the species' range and has large effects on the meta-population trends. One can thus worry about the future of such long-lived seabirds species under the predictions of higher frequency of extreme large-scale climatic events.     

Effect of stand age on greenhouse gas fluxes from a Sitka spruce [Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.] chronosequence on a peaty gley soil

The influence of forest stand age in a Picea sitchensis plantation on (1) soil fluxes of three greenhouse gases (GHGs – CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) and (2) overall net ecosystem global warming potential (GWP), was investigated in a 2‐year study. The objective was to isolate the effect of forest stand age on soil edaphic characteristics (temperature, water table and volumetric moisture) and the consequent influence of these characteristics on the GHG fluxes. Fluxes were measured in a chronosequence in Harwood, England, with sites comprising 30‐ and 20‐year‐old second rotation forest and a site clearfelled (CF) some 18 months before measurement. Adjoining unforested grassland (UN) acted as a control. Comparisons were made between flux data, soil temperature and moisture data and, at the 30‐year‐old and CF sites, eddy covariance data for net ecosystem carbon (C) exchange (NEE). The main findings were: firstly, integrated CO₂ efflux was the dominant influence on the GHG budget, contributing 93–94% of the total GHG flux across the chronosequence compared with 6–7% from CH₄ and N₂O combined. Secondly, there were clear links between the trends in edaphic factors as the forest matured, or after clearfelling, and the emission of GHGs. In the chronosequence sites, annual fluxes of CO₂ were lower at the 20‐year‐old (20y) site than at the 30‐year‐old (30y) and CF sites, with soil temperature the dominant control. CH₄ efflux was highest at the CF site, with peak flux 491±54.5 μg m⁻² h⁻¹ and maximum annual flux 18.0±1.1 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. No consistent uptake of CH₄ was noted at any site. A linear relationship was found between log CH₄ flux and the closeness of the water table to the soil surface across all sites. N₂O efflux was highest in the 30y site, reaching 108±38.3 μg N₂O‐N m⁻² h⁻¹ (171 μg N₂O m⁻² h⁻¹) in midsummer and a maximum annual flux of 4.7±1.2 kg N₂O ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in 2001. Automatic chamber data showed a positive exponential relationship between N₂O flux and soil temperature at this site. The relationship between N₂O emission and soil volumetric moisture indicated an optimum moisture content for N₂O flux of 40–50% by volume. The relationship between C : N ratio data and integrated N₂O flux was consistent with a pattern previously noted across temperate and boreal forest soils.     

OCTOCORALLIAN AND HYDROID FOSSILS FROM THE LOWER ORDOVICIAN OF WALES

Abstract:  Octocorallian and hydroid fossils are described from the Lower Ordovician (Arenig Series) of Wales. They include gorgoniids that are the earliest known fossils of this group: Petilavenula varifurcata gen. et sp. nov. and P. surculosa gen. et sp. nov. Pennalina crossi gen. et sp. nov. is probably also a gorgoniid but may be a hydroid. A new hydroid, Pontifennia gracilis gen. et sp. nov., is also described.     

The Role of Extracellular Ca2+ in the Activation of Pectinaria Oocytes

Several events are associated with fertilization in oocytes. Two such events are an increase in cytoplasmic Ca²⁺ concentration and the resumption of meiosis. Oocytes of the marine annelid, Pectinaria gouldii , are in metaphase I arrest when they are spawned. In this report we investigate the relationship between Ca²⁺ and resumption of meiosis in this species. Meiosis in unfertilized oocytes could be re-initiated with the divalent cation ionophore, A23187. Oocytes in Ca²⁺ free sea water, however, did not resume meiosis in the presence of the ionophore. Furthermore, it was observed that Ca²⁺ must be present for at least 15 min following ionophore treatment for meiosis to resume. These results suggest that extracellular Ca²⁺ is required for the re-initiation of meiosis in this species.     

The importance of pre-thicket conifer plantations for nesting Hen Harriers Circus cyaneus in Ireland

Hen Harriers Circus cyaneus are threatened across much of their range and their conservation requires appropriate habitat management. The locations of 148 Hen Harrier nests found in the Republic of Ireland during national breeding surveys in 2000 and 2005 were used to assess nest-site selection. The distribution of these nests was compared to distributions of randomly located points to investigate selection at the scale of the nest-site and landscape. The main nesting habitats selected were pre-thicket stage of first and, particularly, second rotation plantations, mostly of exotic conifers. There was no evidence that the area of post-closure plantations negatively affected Hen Harrier nest distribution. There was a positive correlation across study areas between changes in numbers of Hen Harrier nests between 2000 and 2005 and changes in the area of pre-thicket second rotation plantations over the same period. The overall effect of plantation forests on breeding Hen Harriers in Ireland therefore appears to be positive. However, this study did not consider the effects of plantation habitats on breeding success. Improved grassland was strongly avoided as a nesting habitat. Furthermore, after controlling for the influence of nesting habitat on nest location, landscapes with a high percentage cover of improved grassland were also avoided. Further agricultural intensification of grassland in areas where Hen Harriers breed is likely to have a negative impact on this species. These results are required for the development of management strategies for the conservation of this species.     

Delay and failure in treatment seeking after first onset of mental disorders in the World Health Organization's World Mental Health Survey Initiative

Data are presented on patterns of failure and delay in making initial treatment contact after first onset of a mental disorder in 15 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO)''s World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Representative face-to-face household surveys were conducted among 76,012 respondents aged 18 and older in Belgium, Colombia, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lebanon, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, People''s Republic of China (Beijing and Shanghai), Spain, and the United States. The WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess lifetime DSM-IV anxiety, mood, and substance use disorders. Ages of onset for individual disorders and ages of first treatment contact for each disorder were used to calculate the extent of failure and delay in initial help seeking. The proportion of lifetime cases making treatment contact in the year of disorder onset ranged from 0.8 to 36.4% for anxiety disorders, from 6.0 to 52.1% for mood disorders, and from 0.9 to 18.6% for substance use disorders. By 50 years, the proportion of lifetime cases making treatment contact ranged from 15.2 to 95.0% for anxiety disorders, from 7.9 to 98.6% for mood disorders, and from 19.8 to 86.1% for substance use disorders. Median delays among cases eventually making contact ranged from 3.0 to 30.0 years for anxiety disorders, from 1.0 to 14.0 years for mood disorders, and from 6.0 to 18.0 years for substance use disorders. Failure and delays in treatment seeking were generally greater in developing countries, older cohorts, men, and cases with earlier ages of onset. These results show that failure and delays in initial help seeking are pervasive problems worldwide. Interventions to ensure prompt initial treatment contacts are needed to reduce the global burdens and hazards of untreated mental disorders.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

Time-course of inorganic nitrogen uptake and incorporation by natural populations of freshwater phytoplankton

SUMMARY. 1. Time-course measurements of NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻uptake were made on the natural phytoplankton populations in a eutrophic lake at a time when these nutrients were at their lowest annual concentration.
2. Both NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻ uptake was increased at least five-fold during the first 5 min of incubation following near saturating pulses of these nutrients.
3. Elevated uptake was also observed following low level (∼2μg N 1⁻¹) pulses of NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻, but substrate depletion during the first hour of incubation may have been partially responsible for this apparent enhancement.
4. Incorporation of ^I5N into TCA-insoluble material (protein) following the saturating NH₄⁺ pulse was increased less than total cellular ¹⁵N uptake, whereas no elevation of ¹⁵N incorporation into protein was observed following a saturating NO₃⁻pulse.
5. The percentage of ^I5N incorporated into protein, with respect to total cellular uptake, was ∼32% and ∼12% for NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻, respectively, following 5 h of incubation.