Using the output from global circulation models to predict changes in the distribution and abundance of cereal aphids in Canada: a mechanistic modeling approach

Climate change will alter the abundance and distribution of species. Predicting these shifts is a challenge for ecologists and essential information for the formation of public policy. Here, I use a mechanistic mathematical model of the interaction between grass growth physiology and aphid population dynamics, coupled with the climate change projections from the UK's Hadley Centre HadCM3 global circulation model (GCM) and Canada's Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis CGCM2 GCM to predict the changes in the abundance and distribution of summer cereal aphid populations in wheat-growing regions of Canada. When used with the HadCM3 projections, the model predicts a latitudinal shift northward in abundances but there is longitudinal variation as well. However, when used with the CGCM2 projections the model predicts that continental regions will see a decline while coastal regions will see an increase in summer cereal aphid populations. These effects are stronger under the higher emissions scenarios.     

The potential significance of microbial Fe(III) reduction during deposition of Precambrian banded iron formations

During deposition of late Archean–early Palaeoproterozoic Precambrian banded iron formations (BIFs) the downward flux of ferric hydroxide (Fe(OH)₃) and phytoplankton biomass should have facilitated microbial Fe(III) reduction. However, quantifying the significance of such a metabolic pathway in the Precambrian is extremely difficult, considering the post‐depositional alteration of the rocks and the lack of ideal modern analogues. Consequently, we have very few constraints on the Fe cycle at that time, namely (i) the concentration of dissolved Fe(II) in the ocean waters; (ii) by what mechanisms Fe(II) was oxidized (chemical, photochemical or biological, the latter using either O₂ or light); (iii) where the ferric hydroxide was precipitated (over the shelf vs. open ocean); (iv) the amount of phytoplankton biomass, which relates to the nutrient status of the surface waters; (v) the relative importance of Fe(III) reduction vs. the other types of metabolic pathways utilized by sea floor microbial communities; and (vi) the proportion of primary vs. diagenetic Fe(II) in BIF. Furthermore, although estimates can be made regarding the quantity of reducing equivalents necessary to account for the diagenetic Fe(II) component in Fe‐rich BIF layers, those same estimates do not offer any insights into the magnitude of Fe(III) actually generated within the water column, and hence, the efficiency of Fe and C recycling prior to burial. Accordingly, in this study, we have attempted to model the ancient Fe cycle, based simply on conservative experimental rates of photosynthetic Fe(II) oxidation in the euphotic zone. We estimate here that under ideal growth conditions, as much as 70% of the biologically formed Fe(III) could have been recycled back into the water column via fermentation and organic carbon oxidation coupled to microbial Fe(III) reduction. By comparing the potential amount of biomass generated phototrophically with the reducing equivalents required for Fe(III) reduction and magnetite formation, we also hypothesize that another anaerobic metabolic pathway might have been utilized in the surface sediment to oxidize the fermentation by‐products. Based on the premise that the deep ocean waters were anoxic, this role could have been fulfilled by methanogens, and maybe even methanotrophs that employed Fe(III) reduction.     

Aphid and host‐plant genotype × genotype interactions under elevated CO2

1. Elevated CO₂ can alter plant physiology and morphology, and these changes are expected to impact diet quality for insect herbivores. While the plastic responses of insect herbivores have been well studied, less is known about the propensity of insects to adapt to such changes. Genetic variation in insect responses to elevated CO₂ and genetic interactions between insects and their host plants may exist and provide the necessary raw material for adaptation. 2. We used clonal lines of Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) aphids to examine genotype‐specific responses to elevated CO₂. We used the host plant Schedonorus arundinaceus (tall fescue; Schreb), which is capable of asexual reproduction, to investigate host plant genotype‐specific effects and possible host plant‐by‐insect genotype interactions. The abundance and density of three R. padi genotypes on three tall fescue genotypes under three concentrations of CO₂ (ambient, 700, and 1000 ppm) in a controlled greenhouse environment were examined. 3. Aphid abundance decreased in the 700 ppm CO₂ concentration, but increased in the 1000 ppm concentration relative to ambient. The effect of CO₂ on aphid density was dependent on host plant genotype; the density of aphids in high CO₂ decreased for two plant genotypes but was unchanged in one. No interaction between aphid genotype and elevated CO₂ was found, nor did we find significant genotype‐by‐genotype interactions. 4. This study suggests that the density of R. padi aphids feeding on tall fescue may decrease under elevated CO₂ for some plant genotypes. The likely impact of genotype‐specific responses on future changes in the genetic structure of plant and insect populations is discussed.     

The Use of Vapour Fixation for the Investigation of Fully Hydrated Living Plant Material

The screening of possible candidates for vapour fixation formicrogravity experiments indicated that the only useful agentswere acrolein and formaldehyde. Acrolein, alone or in combinationwith formaldehyde, gives consistently good preservation of non-vacuolatecells with good cytoplasmic detail. Formaldehyde also producesgood preservation. In highly vacuolate cells plasmolysis occursand is probably unavoidable in vapour fixation. The duration of fixation can be varied considerably withoutgross differences in the fixation image. The identification of a successful inactivation procedure meansthat acrolein vapour fixation has the potential to be appliedin practice. Acrolein, aldehydes, vapour fixation, Arabidopsis thaliana, microgravity, space biology     

Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of ‘very favourable’ regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change.     

2-Methylhopanoids are maximally produced in akinetes of Nostoc punctiforme: geobiological implications

2-Methylhopanes, molecular fossils of 2-methylbacteriohopanepolyol (2-MeBHP) lipids, have been proposed as biomarkers for cyanobacteria, and by extension, oxygenic photosynthesis. However, the robustness of this interpretation is unclear, as 2-methylhopanoids occur in organisms besides cyanobacteria and their physiological functions are unknown. As a first step toward understanding the role of 2-MeBHP in cyanobacteria, we examined the expression and intercellular localization of hopanoids in the three cell types of Nostoc punctiforme : vegetative cells, akinetes, and heterocysts. Cultures in which N. punctiforme had differentiated into akinetes contained approximately 10-fold higher concentrations of 2-methylhopanoids than did cultures that contained only vegetative cells. In contrast, 2-methylhopanoids were only present at very low concentrations in heterocysts. Hopanoid production initially increased threefold in cells starved of nitrogen but returned to levels consistent with vegetative cells within 2 weeks. Vegetative and akinete cell types were separated into cytoplasmic, thylakoid, and outer membrane fractions; the increase in hopanoid expression observed in akinetes was due to a 34-fold enrichment of hopanoid content in their outer membrane relative to vegetative cells. Akinetes formed in response either to low light or phosphorus limitation, exhibited the same 2-methylhopanoid localization and concentration, demonstrating that 2-methylhopanoids are associated with the akinete cell type per se . Because akinetes are resting cells that are not photosynthetically active, 2-methylhopanoids cannot be functionally linked to oxygenic photosynthesis in N.   punctiforme .