Community screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Plasmodium falciparum</Emphasis> with artemether-lumefantrine to reduce malaria disease burden: a modelling and simulation analysis

Background

Asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium falciparum serve as a reservoir of parasites for malaria transmission. Identification and treatment of asymptomatic carriers within a region may reduce the parasite reservoir and influence malaria transmission in that area.

Methods

Using computer simulation, this analysis explored the impact of community screening campaigns (CSC) followed by systematic treatment of P. falciparum asymptomatic carriers (AC) with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) on disease transmission. The model created by Okell et al (originally designed to explore the impact of the introduction of treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy on malaria endemicity) was modified to represent CSC and treatment of AC with AL, with the addition of malaria vector seasonality. The age grouping, relative distribution of age in a region, and degree of heterogeneity in disease transmission were maintained. The number and frequency of CSC and their relative timing were explored in terms of their effect on malaria incidence. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the factors with the greatest impact on the model predictions.

Results

The simulation showed that the intervention that had the largest effect was performed in an area with high endemicity (entomological inoculation rate, EIR > 200); however, the rate of infection returned to its normal level in the subsequent year, unless the intervention was repeated. In areas with low disease burden (EIR < 10), the reduction was sustained for over three years after a single intervention. Three CSC scheduled in close succession (monthly intervals) at the start of the dry season had the greatest impact on the success of the intervention.

Conclusions

Community screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers with AL may reduce malaria transmission significantly. The initial level of disease intensity has the greatest impact on the potential magnitude and duration of malaria reduction. When combined with other interventions (e.g. long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, rapid diagnostic tests, prompt diagnosis and treatment, and, where appropriate, indoor residual spraying) the effect of this intervention can be sustained for many years, and it could become a tool to accelerate the reduction in transmission intensity to pre-elimination levels. Repeated interventions at least every other year may help to prolong the effect. The use of an effective diagnostic tool and a highly effective ACT, such as AL, is also vital. The modelling supports the evaluation of this approach in a prospective clinical trial to reduce the pool of infective vectors for malaria transmission in an area with marked seasonality.

     

APOBEC3G Variants and Protection against HIV-1 Infection in Burkina Faso

Studies on host factors, particularly the APOBEC3G gene, have previously found an association with AIDS progression in some populations and against some HIV-1 strains but not others. Our study had two main objectives: firstly, to screen a population from Burkina Faso for three variants of APOBEC3G previously described, and secondly to analyze the effect of these three variants and their haplotypes on HIV-1 infection with Circulating Recombinant Forms (CRFs) present in Burkina Faso. This case control study involved 708 seropositive and seronegative individuals. Genotyping was done by the TaqMan allelic discrimination method. Minor allele frequencies of rs6001417 (p<0.05), rs8177832 (P<0.05), and rs35228531 (P<0.001) were higher in seronegative subjects. The rs6001417 and rs8177832 SNPs were associated with HIV-1 infection in an additive model (P<0.01). Furthermore the SNP rs35228531 was also associated with HIV-1 infection in a dominant model (P<0.001). Odds ratio analysis of genotypes and alleles of the different APOBEC3G variants showed that there is a strong association between the minor genetic variants, genotype of the three SNPs, and HIV-1 status. Haplotype analysis demonstrated that rs6001417, rs8177832, and rs35228531 are in linkage disequilibrium. The haplotype GGT from the rs6001417, rs8177832 and rs35228531 respectively has a protective effect OR = 0.54 [0.43–0.68] with P<0.001. There was also associations between the haplotypes GGC OR = 1.6 [1.1;-2.3] P<0.05, and CGC OR = 5.21 [2.4–11.3] P<0.001, which increase the risk of infection by HIV-1 from almost two (2) to five (5) fold. This study demonstrates an association of rs6001417, rs8177832, and rs35228531 of APOBEC3G with HIV-1 infection in a population from Burkina Faso.     

Socio-Environmental Factors Associated with the Risk of Contracting Buruli Ulcer in Tiassalé, South C?te d’Ivoire: A Case-Control Study

Background

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a cutaneous infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. The exact mode of transmission remains elusive; yet, some studies identified environmental, socio-sanitary, and behavioral risk factors. The purpose of this study was to assess the association of such factors to contracting BU in Tiassalé, south Côte d’Ivoire.

Methodology

A case-control study was conducted in 2012. Cases were BU patients diagnosed according to clinical definition put forth by the World Health Organization, readily confirmed by IS2404 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis prior to our study and recruited at one of the health centers of the district. Two controls were matched for each control, by age group (to the nearest 5 years), sex, and living community. Participants were interviewed after providing oral witnessed consent, assessing behavioral, environmental, and socio-sanitary factors.

Principal Findings

A total of 51 incident and prevalent cases and 102 controls were enrolled. Sex ratio (male:female) was 0.9. Median age was 25 years (range: 5–70 years). Regular contact with unprotected surface water (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 6.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.1–19.7) and absence of protective equipment during agricultural activities (aOR = 18.5, 95% CI = 5.2–66.7) were identified as the main factors associated with the risk of contracting BU. Etiologic fractions among exposed to both factors were 84.9% and 94.6%, respectively. Good knowledge about the risks that may result in BU (aOR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.1–0.8) and perception about the disease causes (aOR = 0.1, 95% CI = 0.02–0.3) showed protection against BU with a respective preventive fraction of 70% and 90%.

Conclusions/Significance

Main risk factors identified in this study were the contact with unprotected water bodies through daily activities and the absence of protective equipment during agricultural activities. An effective strategy to reduce the incidence of BU should involve compliance with protective equipment during agricultural activities and avoidance of contact with surface water and community capacity building through training and sensitization.     

Effectiveness of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) treatments when SMC is implemented at scale: Case–control studies in 5 countries

BackgroundSeasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has shown high protective efficacy against clinical malaria and severe malaria in a series of clinical trials. We evaluated the effectiveness of SMC treatments against clinical malaria when delivered at scale through national malaria control programmes in 2015 and 2016.Methods and findingsCase–control studies were carried out in Mali and The Gambia in 2015, and in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Nigeria, and The Gambia in 2016. Children aged 3–59 months presenting at selected health facilities with microscopically confirmed clinical malaria were recruited as cases. Two controls per case were recruited concurrently (on or shortly after the day the case was detected) from the neighbourhood in which the case lived. The primary exposure was the time since the most recent course of SMC treatment, determined from SMC recipient cards, caregiver recall, and administrative records. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) associated with receipt of SMC within the previous 28 days, and SMC 29 to 42 days ago, compared with no SMC in the past 42 days. These ORs, which are equivalent to incidence rate ratios, were used to calculate the percentage reduction in clinical malaria incidence in the corresponding time periods. Results from individual countries were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. In total, 2,126 cases and 4,252 controls were included in the analysis. Across the 7 studies, the mean age ranged from 1.7 to 2.4 years and from 2.1 to 2.8 years among controls and cases, respectively; 42.2%–50.9% and 38.9%–46.9% of controls and cases, respectively, were male. In all 7 individual case–control studies, a high degree of personal protection from SMC against clinical malaria was observed, ranging from 73% in Mali in 2016 to 98% in Mali in 2015. The overall OR for SMC within 28 days was 0.12 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.21; p < 0.001), indicating a protective effectiveness of 88% (95% CI: 79%, 94%). Effectiveness against clinical malaria for SMC 29–42 days ago was 61% (95% CI: 47%, 72%). Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to cases with parasite density in excess of 5,000 parasites per microlitre: Protective effectiveness 90% (95% CI: 79%, 96%; P<0.001), and 59% (95% CI: 34%, 74%; P<0.001) for SMC 0–28 days and 29–42 days ago, respectively. Potential limitations include the possibility of residual confounding due to an association between exposure to malaria and access to SMC, or differences in access to SMC between patients attending a clinic and community controls; however, neighbourhood matching of cases and controls, and covariate adjustment, attempted to control for these aspects, and the observed decline in protection over time, consistent with expected trends, argues against a major bias from these sources.ConclusionsSMC administered as part of routine national malaria control activities provided a very high level of personal protection against clinical malaria over 28 days post-treatment, similar to the efficacy observed in clinical trials. The case–control design used in this study can be used at intervals to ensure SMC treatments remain effective.

Using case-control studies, Matthew Cairns and colleagues investigate the effectiveness of seasonal malaria chemoprevention against clinical malaria in children in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Nigeria and The Gambia.     

Cocoa agroforestry is less resilient to sub‐optimal and extreme climate than cocoa in full sun

Cocoa agroforestry is perceived as potential adaptation strategy to sub‐optimal or adverse environmental conditions such as drought. We tested this strategy over wet, dry and extremely dry periods comparing cocoa in full sun with agroforestry systems: shaded by (i) a leguminous tree species, Albizia ferruginea and (ii) Antiaris toxicaria, the most common shade tree species in the region. We monitored micro‐climate, sap flux density, throughfall, and soil water content from November 2014 to March 2016 at the forest‐savannah transition zone of Ghana with climate and drought events during the study period serving as proxy for projected future climatic conditions in marginal cocoa cultivation areas of West Africa. Combined transpiration of cocoa and shade trees was significantly higher than cocoa in full sun during wet and dry periods. During wet period, transpiration rate of cocoa plants shaded by A. ferruginea was significantly lower than cocoa under A. toxicaria and full sun. During the extreme drought of 2015/16, all cocoa plants under A. ferruginea died. Cocoa plants under A. toxicaria suffered 77% mortality and massive stress with significantly reduced sap flux density of 115 g cm^?2 day^?1, whereas cocoa in full sun maintained higher sap flux density of 170 g cm^?2 day^?1. Moreover, cocoa sap flux recovery after the extreme drought was significantly higher in full sun (163 g cm^?2 day^?1) than under A. toxicaria (37 g cm^?2 day^?1). Soil water content in full sun was higher than in shaded systems suggesting that cocoa mortality in the shaded systems was linked to strong competition for soil water. The present results have major implications for cocoa cultivation under climate change. Promoting shade cocoa agroforestry as drought resilient system especially under climate change needs to be carefully reconsidered as shade tree species such as the recommended leguminous A. ferruginea constitute major risk to cocoa functioning under extended severe drought.     

Mapping suitability for Buruli ulcer at fine spatial scales across Africa: A modelling study

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a disabling and stigmatising neglected tropical disease (NTD). Its distribution and burden are unknown because of underdiagnosis and underreporting. It is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, an environmental pathogen whose environmental niche and transmission routes are not fully understood. The main control strategy is active surveillance to promote early treatment and thus limit morbidity, but these activities are mostly restricted to well-known endemic areas. A better understanding of environmental suitability for the bacterium and disease could inform targeted surveillance, and advance understanding of the ecology and burden of BU. We used previously compiled point-level datasets of BU and M. ulcerans occurrence, evidence for BU occurrence within national and sub-national areas, and a suite of relevant environmental covariates in a distribution modelling framework. We fitted relationships between BU and M. ulcerans occurrence and environmental predictors by applying regression and machine learning based algorithms, combined in an ensemble model to characterise the optimal ecological niche for the disease and bacterium across Africa at a resolution of 5km x 5km. Proximity to waterbodies was the strongest predictor of suitability for BU, followed potential evapotranspiration. The strongest predictors of suitability for M. ulcerans were deforestation and potential evapotranspiration. We identified patchy foci of suitability throughout West and Central Africa, including areas with no previous evidence of the disease. Predicted suitability for M. ulcerans was wider but overlapping with that of BU. The estimated population living in areas predicted suitable for the bacterium and disease was 46.1 million.These maps could be used to inform burden estimations and case searches which would generate a more complete understanding of the spatial distribution of BU in Africa, and may guide control programmes to identify cases beyond the well-known endemic areas.