Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models: a palaeoecological perspective

Aim We assess the realism of bioclimate envelope model projections for anticipated future climates by validating ecosystem reconstructions for the late Quaternary with fossil and pollen data. Specifically, we ask: (1) do climate conditions with no modern analogue negatively affect the accuracy of ecosystem reconstructions? (2) are bioclimate envelope model projections biased towards under‐predicting forested ecosystems? (3) given a palaeoecological perspective, are potential habitat projections for the 21st century within model capabilities? Location Western North America. Methods We used an ensemble classifier modelling approach (RandomForest) to spatially project the climate space of modern ecosystem classes throughout the Holocene (at 6000, 9000, 11,000, 14,000, 16,000, and 21,000 YBP) using palaeoclimate surfaces generated by two general circulation models (GFDL and CCM1). The degree of novel arrangement of climate variables was quantified with the multivariate Mahalanobis distance to the nearest modern climatic equivalent. Model projections were validated against biome classifications inferred from 1460 palaeoecological records. Results Model accuracy assessed against independent palaeoecology data is generally low for the present day, increases for 6000 YBP, and then rapidly declines towards the last glacial maximum, primarily due to the under‐prediction of forested biomes. Misclassifications were closely correlated with the degree of climate dissimilarity from the present day. For future projections, no‐analogue climates unexpectedly emerged in the coastal Pacific Northwest but were absent throughout the rest of the study area. Main conclusions Bioclimate envelope models could approximately reconstruct ecosystem distributions for the mid‐ to late‐Holocene but proved unreliable in the Late Pleistocene. We attribute this failure to a combination of no‐analogue climates and a potential lack of niche conservatism in tree species. However, climate dissimilarities in future projections are comparatively minor (similar to those of the mid‐Holocene), and we conclude that no‐analogue climates should not compromise the accuracy of model predictions for the next century.     

Critical role of acrolein in secondary injury following ex vivo spinal cord trauma

The pathophysiology of spinal cord injury (SCI) is characterized by the initial, primary injury followed by secondary injury processes in which oxidative stress is a critical component. Secondary injury processes not only exacerbate pathology at the site of primary injury, but also result in spreading of injuries to the adjacent, otherwise healthy tissue. The lipid peroxidation byproduct acrolein has been implicated as one potential mediator of secondary injury. To further and rigorously elucidate the role of acrolein in secondary injury, a unique ex vivo model is utilized to isolate the detrimental effects of mechanical injury from toxins such as acrolein that are produced endogenously following SCI. We demonstrate that (i) acrolein-Lys adducts are capable of diffusing from compressed tissue to adjacent, otherwise uninjured tissue; (ii) secondary injury by itself produces significant membrane damage and increased superoxide production; and (iii) these injuries are significantly attenuated by the acrolein scavenger hydralazine. Furthermore, hydralazine treatment results in significantly less membrane damage 2 h following compression injury, but not immediately after. These findings support our hypothesis that, following SCI, acrolein is increased to pathologic concentrations, contributes significantly to secondary injury, and thus represents a novel target for scavenging to promote improved recovery.     

Associations between candidate gene markers at a quantitative trait locus on equine chromosome 4 responsible for osteochondrosis dissecans in fetlock joints of South German Coldblood horses

A previously accomplished whole-genome scan for osteochondrosis (OC) and OC dissecans (OCD) in South German Coldblood horses using 250 microsatellite markers identified putative quantitative trait loci (QTL). A chromosome-wide significant QTL for fetlock OCD was found on Equus caballus chromosome (ECA) 4q at a relative position of 70.0-73.3 cM. The aim of this study was to analyze associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate genes for OC in this region. The association analysis included 32 affected and 64 unaffected horses. Three SNPs located in intron 8, intron 9, and 3'-untranslated region (UTR) of the acyloxyacyl hydrolase (AOAH) gene on ECA4q were significantly associated with OCD in fetlock joints. In order to control for systematic environmental and quantitative genetic effects, we employed a linear animal model. The association of the SNP (AJ543065:g.703A>G) in the 3'-UTR of exon 21 was confirmed in the animal model analysis and a significant additive genetic effect for fetlock OCD of 0.42 (P = 0.002) and a dominance effect of -0.32 (P = 0.03) was estimated. This is the first report on a marker in population-wide linkage disequilibrium with equine OCD in fetlock joints.     

Effect of interferon-beta and atorvastatin on Th1/Th2 cytokines in multiple sclerosis

Beneficial effects by both interferon-beta and statin treatment in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) may be linked to interference with the Th1/Th2 cytokine balance. We determined patterns of Th1/Th2 cytokines (interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-2, IL-6, IL-12p70, tumor-necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and interferon-gamma, and IL-4, IL-5 and IL-10, respectively) in the serum of patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with 250microg interferon-beta 1b or with interferon-beta plus 40mg atorvastatin. In treatment na?ve patients with MS, a trend for lower TNF-alpha serum levels compared to controls was detected (P=0.08). Interferon-beta treatment increased TNF-alpha levels, while a trend for lowering of IL-5 serum levels was found (P=0.07). Addition of atorvastatin raised IL-12p70 serum levels (P<0.05). Mean levels of two Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-10) showed a non-significant increase after addition of atorvastatin. We conclude that interferon-beta and atorvastatin exert divergent action on Th1/Th2 serum cytokines levels in MS. Supplemental atorvastatin might promote a Th1-type response by raising IL-12p70. Further studies are required to support a Th2 cytokine shift by atorvastatin in patients with MS.     

fMRI evidence for word association and situated simulation in conceptual processing.

The LASS theory proposes that Language and Situated Simulation both play central roles in conceptual processing. Depending on stimuli and task conditions, different mixtures of language and simulation occur. When a word is processed in a conceptual task, it first activates other linguistic forms, such as word associates. More slowly, the word activates a situated simulation to represent its meaning in neural systems for perception, action, and mental states. An fMRI experiment tested the LASS account. In a first scanning session, participants performed the property generation task to provide a measure of conceptual processing. In a second scanning session a week later, participants performed two localizer tasks measuring word association and situated simulation. Conjunction analyses supported predictions of the LASS theory. Activations early in conceptual processing overlapped with activations for word association. Activations late in conceptual processing overlapped with activations for situation generation. These results, along with others in the literature, indicate that conceptual processing uses multiple representations, not one. Furthermore, researchers must be careful drawing conclusions about conceptual processing, given that different paradigms are likely to produce different mixtures of language and simulation. Whereas some paradigms produce high levels of linguistic processing and low levels of simulation, other paradigms produce the opposite pattern.     

RAPD and ISSR markers indicate diminished gene flow due to recent fragmentation of Polylepis australis woodlands in central Argentina

Two Polylepis australis BITT. populations differing in size were examined with the aim of determining future sampling strategies; assessing levels of genetic diversity and checking whether trees of different ages might vary in their genetic structure due to the effects of fragmentation. RADP and ISSR gave similar values of diversity. A re-sampling technique showed that for P. australis, 10 trees and 20 markers were enough to produce an unbiased estimator of heterozygosity. AMOVA suggested differences in allele frequencies between young and old trees in the small population (p = 0.052), but not in a large population (p = 0.864); suggesting that gene flow between the areas diminished in relatively recent times. This assumption is supported by the fact that allele frequencies among both woodlands were significantly different between the young (p < 0.0001), but not the older trees (p = 0.87).     

Hormonal and metabolic responses to nesting activities in the green turtle, Chelonia mydas

We examined the association between green turtle nesting activities and plasma profiles of hormones that are widely implicated in aspects of heightened metabolism and energy regulation; epinephrine (EPI), norepinephrine (NE) and corticosterone. In conjunction, we examined plasma profiles of glucose and lactate to infer metabolic processes associated with green turtle nesting behaviour. Finally, because these hormones are also involved in mediating behaviour and physiology associated with stressful situations, we examined the effect of a stressor encountered during nesting, physical disturbance, on hormone levels. Plasma profiles of epinephrine, norepinephrine and corticosterone were not significantly altered across different stages of nesting. Plasma glucose and lactate both exhibited significant increases related to nesting activity; glucose increased dramatically during the emergence stage of nesting before stabilizing, and lactate levels continued to increase throughout the nesting process. There was no significant association between plasma hormones and glucose. For female turtles that abandoned nesting activities due to competition for nest space, there was no significant difference in plasma levels of epinephrine, norepinephrine and corticosterone compared to females that persisted with nesting activities. Overall, while distinct metabolic changes took place in nesting females, there was little association in profiles of hormones typically considered important for regulating heightened metabolism and nesting activity. This disassociation could arise because hormonal action may be altered in breeding female green turtles to facilitate reproductive processes.