Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change

The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006–2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896–2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.     

Oligopeptide Signaling through TbGPR89 Drives Trypanosome Quorum Sensing

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A theoretical investigation into the direct and indirect effects of state on the risk of predation

As well as there being a direct physical effect of the state (for example fat reserves, or size) of an animal on the risk of being caught by a predator, state also has an effect on predation risk indirectly through changes in behaviour. We present a mathematical model which looks at these two components of the effect of state on predation risk. We focus on two different models, (i) where the animal must achieve a fixed state and its fitness depends on the time at which this state is reached and (ii) where the animal must survive until a fixed time and its fitness depends on its final state. We investigate conditions under which the indirect effect of increased state is to increase or decrease predation risk, and give some numerical illustrations. Under certain conditions in the fixed-state model, the indirect effect of state is to increase predation risk, whereas under certain conditions in the fixed-time model the indirect effect of state is to decrease predation risk. We discuss the implications of our results for empirical investigations into the effect of state on predation risk.     

Alternative roles for putative ice-binding residues in type I antifreeze protein

Two sets of variants of type I antifreeze protein have been synthesized to investigate the role of Leu and Asn in the activity of this 37-residue alpha-helix. Leu and Asn flank the central two of four regularly spaced ice-binding Thr in the i-1 and i + 3 positions, respectively. All three residues project from the same side of the helix to form the protein's putative ice-adsorption site and are considered in some models to act together as an "ice-binding motif". Replacement of Asn by residues with shorter side chains resulted in either a small loss (Ala) or gain (Thr) of antifreeze activity. However, substitution of Asn by its slightly larger homologue (Gln) abolished thermal hysteresis activity. The Gln-containing peptide was very soluble, largely monomeric, and fully helical. Of the three variants in which Leu was replaced by Ala, two of the three were more active than their Leu-containing counterparts, but all three variants began to precipitate as the peptide concentration increased. None of the seven variants tested showed dramatic differences in ice crystal morphology from that established by the wild type. These results are consistent with a primary role for Leu in preventing peptide aggregation at the antifreeze protein concentrations (10 mg/mL) normally present in fish serum. Similarly the role for Asn may have more to do with enhancing the solubility of these rather hydrophobic peptides than of making a stereospecific hydrogen-bonding match to the ice lattice as traditionally thought. Nevertheless, the dramatic loss of activity in the Asn-to-Gln replacement demonstrates the steric restriction on residues in or near the ice-binding site of the peptide.     

The effect of foraging parameters on the probability that a dive is successful

In this paper, we investigate the foraging decisions of an animal that dives to obtain its food. It might seem reasonable to use the probability that the diver is successful in any dive as an indicator of habitat quality. We use a dynamic model of optimal prey choice to show that this interpretation of diving success is not generally valid. In particular, we show that diving success is not directly proportional to the overall rate of gain that can be achieved in an environment. Furthermore, some environmental factors can have a non-monotonic effect on the probability of success. For example, as the travel time to the foraging area increases, the probability of success may first increase and then decrease. We point out that the same conclusions are likely to apply in the context of mate choice, i.e. the probability of getting a mate may not be an indicator of the quality of the environment in terms of reproductive success.     

Credible threats and promises

We consider various implications of information about the other player in two-player evolutionary games. A simple model of desertion shows that information about the partner's behaviour can be disadvantageous, and highlights the idea of credible threats. We then discuss the general issue of whether the partner can convince the focal player that it will behave in a specific way, i.e. whether the focal player can make credible threats or promises. We show that when desertion decisions depend on reserves, a player can manipulate its reserves so as to create a credible threat of desertion. We then extend previous work on the evolution of trust and commitment, discussing conditions under which it is advantageous to assume that a partner will behave in a certain way even though it is not in its best interest.     

A self-consistent approach to paternity and parental effort

We review the relationship between optimal parental effort and paternity, and emphasize the need for a self-consistent approach. A fundamental consistency condition is what we refer to as the conservation of paternity. Every offspring has exactly one father. If a male has a paternity of less than unity, then another male or other males must have gained the lost paternity. Our approach also emphasizes that paternity emerges as the result of interactions between males and females. From this viewpoint, if paternity changes it is because some aspect of the interaction changes, and the correlation between effort and paternity depends on the aspect that has changed. This has implications for comparative analyses of paternity. The conclusions that are drawn about the correlation between effort and paternity within a population depend on, for example, the types of male in the population and how their abilities are correlated. It is easy to construct models that predict negative correlations between effort and paternity.