Application of the backstepping method to the prediction of increase or decrease of infected population

Background

In mathematical epidemiology, age-structured epidemic models have usually been formulated as the boundary-value problems of the partial differential equations. On the other hand, in engineering, the backstepping method has recently been developed and widely studied by many authors.

Methods

Using the backstepping method, we obtained a boundary feedback control which plays the role of the threshold criteria for the prediction of increase or decrease of newly infected population. Under an assumption that the period of infectiousness is same for all infected individuals (that is, the recovery rate is given by the Dirac delta function multiplied by a sufficiently large positive constant), the prediction method is simplified to the comparison of the numbers of reported cases at the current and previous time steps.

Results

Our prediction method was applied to the reported cases per sentinel of influenza in Japan from 2006 to 2015 and its accuracy was 0.81 (404 correct predictions to the total 500 predictions). It was higher than that of the ARIMA models with different orders of the autoregressive part, differencing and moving-average process. In addition, a proposed method for the estimation of the number of reported cases, which is consistent with our prediction method, was better than that of the best-fitted ARIMA model ARIMA(1,1,0) in the sense of mean square error.

Conclusions

Our prediction method based on the backstepping method can be simplified to the comparison of the numbers of reported cases of the current and previous time steps. In spite of its simplicity, it can provide a good prediction for the spread of influenza in Japan.

     

Environmental DNA as a ‘Snapshot’ of Fish Distribution: A Case Study of Japanese Jack Mackerel in Maizuru Bay,Sea of Japan

Recent studies in streams and ponds have demonstrated that the distribution and biomass of aquatic organisms can be estimated by detection and quantification of environmental DNA (eDNA). In more open systems such as seas, it is not evident whether eDNA can represent the distribution and biomass of aquatic organisms because various environmental factors (e.g., water flow) are expected to affect eDNA distribution and concentration. To test the relationships between the distribution of fish and eDNA, we conducted a grid survey in Maizuru Bay, Sea of Japan, and sampled surface and bottom waters while monitoring biomass of the Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) using echo sounder technology. A linear model showed a high R² value (0.665) without outlier data points, and the association between estimated eDNA concentrations from the surface water samples and echo intensity was significantly positive, suggesting that the estimated spatial variation in eDNA concentration can reflect the local biomass of the jack mackerel. We also found that a best-fit model included echo intensity obtained within 10–150 m from water sampling sites, indicating that the estimated eDNA concentration most likely reflects fish biomass within 150 m in the bay. Although eDNA from a wholesale fish market partially affected eDNA concentration, we conclude that eDNA generally provides a ‘snapshot’ of fish distribution and biomass in a large area. Further studies in which dynamics of eDNA under field conditions (e.g., patterns of release, degradation, and diffusion of eDNA) are taken into account will provide a better estimate of fish distribution and biomass based on eDNA.     

A Combination of Mitochondrial Oxidative Stress and Excess Fat/Calorie Intake Accelerates Steatohepatitis by Enhancing Hepatic CC Chemokine Production in Mice

Mitochondrial oxidative stress is considered as a key accelerator of fibrosis in various organs including the liver. However, the production of oxidative stress and progression of liver fibrosis may merely represent the independent consequences of hepatocellular injury caused by the primary disease. Because of a lack of appropriate experimental models to evaluate the sole effects of oxidative stress, it is virtually unknown whether this stress is causatively linked to the progression of liver fibrosis. Here, we examined the direct effects of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) on the progression of high fat/calorie diet-induced steatohepatitis using Tet-mev-1 mice, in which a mutated succinate dehydrogenase transgene impairs the mitochondrial electron transport and generates an excess amount of ROS in response to doxycycline administration. Wild type and Tet-mev-1 mice that had been continuously given doxycycline-containing water were subsequently fed either normal chow or a cholesterol-free high-fat/high-sucrose diet for 4 months at approximately 1 or 2 years of age. Histopathological examinations indicated that neither the mitochondrial ROS induced in Tet-mev-1 mice nor the feeding of wild type animals with high-fat/high-sucrose diet alone caused significant liver fibrosis. Only when the Tet-mev-1 mice were fed a high-fat/high-sucrose diet, it induced lipid peroxidation in hepatocytes and enhanced hepatic CC chemokine expression. These events were accompanied by increased infiltration of CCR5-positive cells and activation of myofibroblasts, resulting in extensive liver fibrosis. Interestingly, this combinatorial effect of mitochondrial ROS and excess fat/calorie intake on liver fibrosis was observed only in 2-year-old Tet-mev-1 mice, not in the 1-year-old animals. Collectively, these results indicate that mitochondrial ROS in combination with excess fat/calorie intake accelerates liver fibrosis by enhancing CC chemokine production in aged animals. We have provided a good experimental model to explore how high fat/calorie intake increases the susceptibility to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in aged individuals who have impaired mitochondrial adaptation.     

Anti‐barnacle Activity of Isocyanides Derived from Amino Acids

Creation of new potent antifouling active compounds is important for the development of environmentally friendly antifouling agents. Fifteen isocyanide congeners derived from proteinogenic amino acids were synthesized, and the antifouling activity and toxicity of these compounds against cypris larvae of the barnacle Balanus amphitrite were investigated. All synthesized amino acid‐isocyanides exhibited potent anti‐barnacle activity with EC₅₀ values of 0.07 – 10.34 μg/ml after 120 h exposure without significant toxicity. In addition, seven compounds showed more than 95% settlement inhibition of the cypris larvae at 10 μg/ml after 120 h exposure without any mortality observed. Considering their structure, these amino acid‐isocyanides would eventually be biodegraded to their original nontoxic amino acids. These should be useful for further research focused on the development of environmentally friendly antifoulants.     

Prognostic Significance of Promoter DNA Hypermethylation of cysteine dioxygenase 1 (CDO1) Gene in Primary Breast Cancer

Using pharmacological unmasking microarray, we identified promoter DNA methylation of cysteine dioxygenase 1 (CDO1) gene in human cancer. In this study, we assessed the clinicopathological significance of CDO1 methylation in primary breast cancer (BC) with no prior chemotherapy. The CDO1 DNA methylation was quantified by TaqMan methylation specific PCR (Q-MSP) in 7 BC cell lines and 172 primary BC patients with no prior chemotherapy. Promoter DNA of the CDO1 gene was hypermethylated in 6 BC cell lines except SK-BR3, and CDO1 gene expression was all silenced at mRNA level in the 7 BC cell lines. Quantification of CDO1 methylation was developed using Q-MSP, and assessed in primary BC. Among the clinicopathologic factors, CDO1 methylation level was not statistically significantly associated with any prognostic factors. The log-rank plot analysis elucidated that the higher methylation the tumors harbored, the poorer prognosis the patients exhibited. Using the median value of 58.0 as a cut-off one, disease specific survival in BC patients with CDO1 hypermethylation showed significantly poorer prognosis than those with hypomethylation (p = 0.004). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model identified that CDO1 hypermethylation was prognostic factor as well as Ki-67 and hormone receptor status. The most intriguingly, CDO1 hypermethylation was of robust prognostic relevance in triple negative BC (p = 0.007). Promoter DNA methylation of CDO1 gene was robust prognostic indicator in primary BC patients with no prior chemotherapy. Prognostic relevance of the CDO1 promoter DNA methylation is worthy of being paid attention in triple negative BC cancer.     

Dapagliflozin,a Sodium-Glucose Co-Transporter 2 Inhibitor,Acutely Reduces Energy Expenditure in BAT via Neural Signals in Mice

Selective sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) treatment promotes urinary glucose excretion, thereby reducing blood glucose as well as body weight. However, only limited body weight reductions are achieved with SGLT2i treatment. Hyperphagia is reportedly one of the causes of this limited weight loss. However, the effects of SGLT2i treatment on systemic energy expenditure have not been fully elucidated. Herein, we investigated the acute effects of dapagliflozin, a SGLT2i, on systemic energy expenditure in mice. Eighteen hours after dapagliflozin treatment oxygen consumption and brown adipose tissue (BAT) expression of ucp1, a thermogenesis-related gene, were significantly decreased as compared to those after vehicle treatment. In addition, dapagliflozin significantly suppressed norepinephrine (NE) turnover in BAT and c-fos expression in the rostral raphe pallidus nucleus (rRPa) which contains the sympathetic premotor neurons responsible for thermogenesis. These findings indicate that the dapagliflozin-mediated acute decrease in energy expenditure involves a reduction in BAT thermogenesis via decreased sympathetic nerve activity from the rRPa. Furthermore, common hepatic branch vagotomy abolished the reductions in ucp1 expression and NE contents in BAT and c-fos expression in the rRPa. In addition, alterations in hepatic carbohydrate metabolism, such as decreases in glycogen contents and upregulation of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, manifested prior to the suppression of BAT thermogenesis, e.g. 6 hours after dapagliflozin treatment. Collectively, these results suggest that SGLT2i treatment acutely suppresses energy expenditure in BAT via regulation of an inter-organ neural network consisting of the common hepatic vagal branch and sympathetic nerves.