Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito‐borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid‐century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.     

Neural processing as causal inference

Perception is about making sense, that is, understanding what events in the outside world caused the sensory observations. Consistent with this intuition, many aspects of human behavior confronting noise and ambiguity are well explained by principles of causal inference. Extending these insights, recent studies have applied the same powerful set of tools to perceptual processing at the neural level. According to these approaches, microscopic neural structures solve elementary probabilistic tasks and can be combined to construct hierarchical predictive models of the sensory input. This framework suggests that variability in neural responses reflects the inherent uncertainty associated with sensory interpretations and that sensory neurons are active predictors rather than passive filters of their inputs. Causal inference can account parsimoniously and quantitatively for non-linear dynamical properties in single synapses, single neurons and sensory receptive fields.     

Jacob-Henle-Medaille

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Jacob-Henle-Medaille     

Dechorionation as a tool to improve the fish embryo toxicity test (FET) with the zebrafish (Danio rerio)

Prior to hatching, the zebrafish embryo is surrounded by an acellular envelope, the chorion. Despite repeated speculations, it could not be clarified unequivocally whether the chorion represents an effective barrier and, thus, protects the embryo from exposure to distinct chemicals. Potentially, there is a risk of generating false negative results in developmental toxicity studies due to limited permeability of the chorion for some compounds. The simplest way to exclude this is to remove the chorion and expose the “naked” embryo. In the context of ecotoxicity testing, standardized protocols do not exist for fish embryo dechorionation, and survival rates of dechorionated embryos have usually not been subjected to statistical analysis. Since reproducibly high survival rates are of fundamental importance for chemical toxicity assessment, the present study was designed to develop and optimize a dechorionation procedure. With appropriate modifications of the fish embryo test protocol, embryos can be dechorionated at 24 h post-fertilization (hpf) with survival rates of ≥ 90%. However, for fish embryo tests with dechorionated embryos, the standard positive control test substance, 3,4-dichloroaniline, should be replaced by another compound, e.g., acetone, since 3,4-dichloroaniline exerts its effects during the first 24 h of development. Dechorionation of younger stages (< 24 hpf) is generally possible, however with lower survival rates. The effect of dechorionation was demonstrated with the cationic polymer Luviquat HM 552, which is blocked by the chorion non-dechorionated embryos due to its molecular weight of ~ 400,000 Dalton, but becomes strongly toxic after dechorionation.     

Endemic dengue associated with the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages and localized density-dependent transmission

Dengue is one of the most important infectious diseases of humans and has spread throughout much of the tropical and subtropical world. Despite this widespread dispersal, the determinants of dengue transmission in endemic populations are not well understood, although essential for virus control. To address this issue we performed a phylogeographic analysis of 751 complete genome sequences of dengue 1 virus (DENV-1) sampled from both rural (Dong Thap) and urban (Ho Chi Minh City) populations in southern Viet Nam during the period 2003-2008. We show that DENV-1 in Viet Nam exhibits strong spatial clustering, with likely importation from Cambodia on multiple occasions. Notably, multiple lineages of DENV-1 co-circulated in Ho Chi Minh City. That these lineages emerged at approximately the same time and dispersed over similar spatial regions suggests that they are of broadly equivalent fitness. We also observed an important relationship between the density of the human host population and the dispersion rate of dengue, such that DENV-1 tends to move from urban to rural populations, and that densely populated regions within Ho Chi Minh City act as major transmission foci. Despite these fluid dynamics, the dispersion rates of DENV-1 are relatively low, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City where the virus moves less than an average of 20 km/year. These low rates suggest a major role for mosquito-mediated dispersal, such that DENV-1 does not need to move great distances to infect a new host when there are abundant susceptibles, and imply that control measures should be directed toward the most densely populated urban environments.