Are Random Trading Strategies More Successful than Technical Ones?

In this paper we explore the specific role of randomness in financial markets, inspired by the beneficial role of noise in many physical systems and in previous applications to complex socio-economic systems. After a short introduction, we study the performance of some of the most used trading strategies in predicting the dynamics of financial markets for different international stock exchange indexes, with the goal of comparing them to the performance of a completely random strategy. In this respect, historical data for FTSE-UK, FTSE-MIB, DAX, and S & P500 indexes are taken into account for a period of about 15–20 years (since their creation until today).     

Effective population size as a driver for divergence of an antimicrobial peptide (Hymenoptaecin) in two common European bumblebee species

Social insects are the target of numerous pathogens. This is because the high density of closely‐related individuals frequently interacting with each other enhances the transmission and establishment of pathogens. This high selective pressure results in the rapid evolution of immune genes, which might be counteracted by a reduced effective population size (N_e) lowering the effectiveness of selection. We tested the effect of N_e on the evolutionary rate of an important immune gene for the antimicrobial peptide Hymenoptaecin in two common central European bumblebee species: Bombus terrestris and Bombus lapidarius. Both species are similar in their biology and are expected to be under similar selective pressures because pathogen prevalence does not differ between species. However, previous studies indicated a higher N_e in B. terrestris compared to B. lapidarius. We found high intraspecific variability in the coding sequence but low variability for silent polymorphisms in B. lapidarius. Estimates of long‐ and short‐term N_e were three‐ to four‐fold higher N_e in B. terrestris, although the species did not differ in census population sizes. The difference in N_e might result in less efficient selection and suboptimal adaptation of immune genes (e.g. hymenoptaecin) in B. lapidarius, and thus this species might become less resistant and more tolerant, turning into a superspreader of diseases.     

In utero origin of sex-related differences in future cardiovascular disease

Background

There are sex differences in the risk of development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). According to the developmental origins of health and disease paradigm (DOHaD), CVD originates in fetal life. This study examines fetal sex differences in cardiovascular development in utero.

Methods

In 1028 pregnant women, we assessed fetal circulation using pulsed wave Doppler examinations between 28 and 34 weeks gestation. To test associations between fetal sex and fetal circulation measurements, linear regression models were used adjusting for fetal size, gestational age, and fetal heart rate.

Results

A higher pulsatility index in the ductus venosus was observed in male fetuses compared to female fetuses (difference 0.02, 95 % CI 0.01; 0.05) with a lower E/A ratio of the tricuspid (difference ?0.01, 95 % CI ?0.03; ?0.00) and mitral (difference ?0.02, 95 % CI ?0.03; ?0.01) valves. This was mainly determined by differences in the E wave of the tricuspid and mitral valves (differences ?1.02, 95 % CI ?1.81; ?0.24 and ?1.28, 95 % CI ?2.11; ?0.46, respectively). Also in males, a lower peak systolic velocity was seen in the pulmonary artery (difference ?1.33, 95 % CI ?2.63; ?0.03) with a similar lower trend regarding peak systolic velocity in the ascending aorta.

Conclusions

Male fetuses exhibit an increased preload and reduced afterload conditions compared to females. While it is difficult to relate these measurements to exact cardiac function, our findings strongly suggest that the known differences in cardiovascular performance between the sexes already start in utero.

     

Regulation of rat ovarian cell growth and steroid secretion

A cultured rat ovarian cell line (31 A-F(2)) was used to study the effect of growth factors (epidermal growth factor [EGF] and fibroblast growth factor [FGF]), a survival factor (ovarian growth factor [OGF]), a hormone (insulin), and an iron-binding protein (transferring) on cell proliferation and steroid production under defined culture conditions. EGF and insulin were shown to be mitogenic (half-maximal response at 0.12 nM and 0.11 muM, respectively) for 31A-F(2) cells incubated in serum-free medium. EGF induced up to three doublings in the cell population, whereas insulin induced an average of one cell population doubling. FGF, OGF, and transferrin were found not to have any prominent effect on cell division when incubated individually with 31A-F(2) cells in serum-free medium. However, a combination of EGF, OGF, insulin, and transferrin stimulated cell division to the same approximate extent as cells incubated in the presence of 5 percent fetal calf serum. EGF or insulin did not significantly affect total cell cholesterol levels (relative to cells incubated in serum-free medium) when incubated individually with 31A-F(2) cells. However, cell cholesterol levels were increased by the addition of OGF (250 percent), FGF (370 percent), or a combination of insulin and EGF (320 percent). Progesterone secretion from 31A-F(2) cells was enhanced by EGF (25 percent), FGF (80 percent), and insulin (115 percent). However, the addition of a mitogenic mixture of EGF, OGF, insulin, and transferrin suppressed progesterone secretion 150 percent) below that of control cultures. These studies have permitted us to determine that EGF and insulin are mitogenic factors that are required for the growth of 31A-F(2) cells and that OGF and transferrin are positive cofactors that enhance growth. Also, additional data suggest that cholesterol and progesterone production in 31A-F(2) cells can be regulated by peptide growth factors and the hormone insulin.     

Molecular evolution of mammalian lactate dehydrogenase-A genes and pseudogenes: association of a mouse processed pseudogene with a B1 repetitive sequence

A mouse genomic clone containing a lactate dehydrogenase-A (LDH-A) processed pseudogene and a B1 repetitive element was isolated, and a nucleotide sequence of approximately 3 kb was determined. The pseudogene and B1 element are flanked by perfect 13-bp repeats, and the B1 sequence starts at 14 nucleotides 3' to the presumptive polyadenylation signal of the pseudogene. The nucleotide sequences of the LDH-A genes and processed pseudogenes from mouse, rat, and human were compared, and a phylogenetic tree was constructed. The rate and pattern of nucleotide substitutions in the LDH-A pseudogenes are similar to previously reported results (Li et al. 1984). The average rate of nucleotide substitutions in the LDH-A pseudogenes is 4.3 X 10(- 9)/site/year. The substitutions of C----T and G----A are most frequent, and A----G substitutions are relatively high. The rate of synonymous substitutions in the LDH-A genes is 5.3 X 10(-9), which is not significantly higher than the average rate of 4.7 X 10(-9) for 35 mammalian genes. The rate of nonsynonymous substitutions in the LDH-A genes is 0.20 X 10(-9), which is considerably lower than the average rate of 0.88 X 10(-9) for 35 mammalian genes. Thus, the mammalian LDH-A gene appears to be highly conserved in evolution.      

Genbank accession #: AF 124983

Plant Molecular Biology -     

Mechanisms of the antinociceptive action of (?) Epicatechin obtained from the hydroalcoholic fraction of Combretum leprosum Mart & Eic in rodents

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The mechanisms of the antinociceptive activity of () epicatechin (EPI), a compound isolated from the hydroalcoholic fraction of Combreum leprosum Mart & Eicher. METHODS: were assessed in the model of chemical nociception induced by glutamate (20 mumol/paw). To evaluate the mechanisms involved, the animals , male Swiss mice (25-30 g), received EPI (50 mg/kg p.o.) after pretreatment with naloxone (2 mg/kg s.c. opioid antagonist), glibenclamide (2 mg/kg s.c. antagonist K + channels sensitive to ATP), ketanserin (0.3 mg/kg s.c. antagonist of receptor 5-HT2A), yoimbine (0.15 mg/kg s.c. alpha2 adrenergic receptor antagonist), pindolol (1 mg/kg s.c. 5-HT1a/1b receptor antagonist), atropine (0.1 mg/kg s.c. muscarinic antagonist) and caffeine (3 mg/kg s.c. adenosine receptor antagonist), ondansetron (0.5 mg/kg s.c. for 5-HT3 receptor) and L-arginine (600 mg/kg i.p.). RESULTS: The antinociceptive effect of EPI was reversed by pretreatment with naloxone and glibenclamide, ketanserin, yoimbine, atropine and pindolol, which demonstrates the involvement of opioid receptors and potassium channels sensitive to ATP, the serotoninergic (receptor 5HT1A and 5HT2A), adrenergic (receptor alpha 2) and cholinergic (muscarinic receptor) systems in the activities that were observed. The effects of EPI, however, were not reversed by pretreatment with caffeine, L-arginine or ondansetron, which shows that there is no involvement of 5HT3 receptors or the purinergic and nitrergic systems in the antinociceptive effect of EPI. In the Open Field and Rotarod test, EPI had no significant effect, which shows that there was no central nervous system depressant or muscle relaxant effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the antinociceptive activity of EPI in the glutamate model involves the participation of the opioid system, serotonin, adrenergic and cholinergic.     

Right and left ventricular function after chronic pulmonary artery banding in rats assessed with biventricular pressure-volume loops

In many patients with congenital heart disease, the right ventricle (RV) is subjected to abnormal loading conditions. To better understand the state of compensated RV hypertrophy, which could eventually progress to decompensation, we studied the effects of RV pressure overload in rats. In the present study, we report the biventricular adaptation to 6 wk of pulmonary artery banding (PAB). PAB resulted in an RV pressure overload to approximately 60% of systemic level and a twofold increase in RV mass (P < 0.01). Systemic hemodynamic parameters were not altered, and overt signs of heart failure were absent. Load-independent measures of ventricular function (end-systolic pressure-volume relation, preload recruitable stroke work relation, maximum first time derivative of pressure divided by end-diastolic volume), assessed by means of pressure-volume (PV) loops, demonstrated a two- to threefold increase in RV contractility under baseline conditions in PAB rats. RV contractility increased in response to dobutamine stimulation (2.5 microg.kg(-1).min(-1)) both in PAB and sham-operated rats in a similar fashion, indicating preserved RV contractile reserve in PAB rats. Left ventricular (LV) contractility at baseline was unaffected in PAB rats, although LV volume in PAB rats was slightly decreased. LV contractility increased in response to dobutamine (2.5 microg.kg(-1).min(-1)), both in PAB and sham rats, whereas the response to a higher dose of dobutamine (5 microg.kg(-1).min(-1)) was blunted in PAB rats. RV pressure overload (6 wk) in rats resulted in a state of compensated RV hypertrophy with preserved RV contractile reserve, whereas LV contractile state at baseline was not affected. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the feasibility of performing biventricular PV-loop measurements in rats.     

Evolutionary Establishment of Moral and Double Moral Standards through Spatial Interactions

Situations where individuals have to contribute to joint efforts or share scarce resources are ubiquitous. Yet, without proper mechanisms to ensure cooperation, the evolutionary pressure to maximize individual success tends to create a tragedy of the commons (such as over-fishing or the destruction of our environment). This contribution addresses a number of related puzzles of human behavior with an evolutionary game theoretical approach as it has been successfully used to explain the behavior of other biological species many times, from bacteria to vertebrates. Our agent-based model distinguishes individuals applying four different behavioral strategies: non-cooperative individuals (“defectors”), cooperative individuals abstaining from punishment efforts (called “cooperators” or “second-order free-riders”), cooperators who punish non-cooperative behavior (“moralists”), and defectors, who punish other defectors despite being non-cooperative themselves (“immoralists”). By considering spatial interactions with neighboring individuals, our model reveals several interesting effects: First, moralists can fully eliminate cooperators. This spreading of punishing behavior requires a segregation of behavioral strategies and solves the “second-order free-rider problem”. Second, the system behavior changes its character significantly even after very long times (“who laughs last laughs best effect”). Third, the presence of a number of defectors can largely accelerate the victory of moralists over non-punishing cooperators. Fourth, in order to succeed, moralists may profit from immoralists in a way that appears like an “unholy collaboration”. Our findings suggest that the consideration of punishment strategies allows one to understand the establishment and spreading of “moral behavior” by means of game-theoretical concepts. This demonstrates that quantitative biological modeling approaches are powerful even in domains that have been addressed with non-mathematical concepts so far. The complex dynamics of certain social behaviors become understandable as the result of an evolutionary competition between different behavioral strategies.     

How wealth accumulation can promote cooperation

Explaining the emergence and stability of cooperation has been a central challenge in biology, economics and sociology. Unfortunately, the mechanisms known to promote it either require elaborate strategies or hold only under restrictive conditions. Here, we report the emergence, survival, and frequent domination of cooperation in a world characterized by selfishness and a strong temptation to defect, when individuals can accumulate wealth. In particular, we study games with local adaptation such as the prisoner's dilemma, to which we add heterogeneity in payoffs. In our model, agents accumulate wealth and invest some of it in their interactions. The larger the investment, the more can potentially be gained or lost, so that present gains affect future payoffs. We find that cooperation survives for a far wider range of parameters than without wealth accumulation and, even more strikingly, that it often dominates defection. This is in stark contrast to the traditional evolutionary prisoner's dilemma in particular, in which cooperation rarely survives and almost never thrives. With the inequality we introduce, on the contrary, cooperators do better than defectors, even without any strategic behavior or exogenously imposed strategies. These results have important consequences for our understanding of the type of social and economic arrangements that are optimal and efficient.