Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials,risks and trade‐offs

Afforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO₂/year at 200 US$/tCO₂ in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO₂ cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.     

Half a century of Scots pine forest ecosystem monitoring reveals long‐term effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change

At two forest sites in Germany (Pfaffenwinkel, Pustert) stocked with mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), we investigated changes of topsoil chemistry during the recent 40 years by soil inventories conducted on replicated control plots of fertilization experiments, allowing a statistical analysis. Additionally, we monitored the nutritional status of both stands from 1964 until 2019 and quantified stand growth during the monitoring period by repeated stand inventories. Moreover, we monitored climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and calculated annual climatic water balances from 1991 to 2019. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition between 1964 and 2019 was estimated for the period 1969–2019 by combining annual deposition measurements conducted in 1985–1987 and 2004 with long‐term deposition records from long‐term forest monitoring stations. We investigated interrelations between topsoil chemistry, stand nutrition, stand growth, deposition, and climate trends. At both sites, the onset of the new millennium was a turning point of important biogeochemical processes. Topsoil acidification turned into re‐alkalinization, soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation stopped, and likely turned into SOM depletion. In the new millennium, topsoil stocks of S and plant‐available phosphorus (P) as well as S and P concentrations in Scots pine foliage decreased substantially; yet, age‐referenced stand growth remained at levels far above those expected from yield table data. Tree P and S nutrition as well as climate change (increased temperature and drought stress) have replaced soil acidification as major future challenges for both forests. Understanding of P and S cycling and water fluxes in forest ecosystems, and consideration of these issues in forest management is important for successfully tackling the new challenges. Our study illustrates the importance of long‐term forest monitoring to identify slow, but substantial changes of forest biogeochemistry driven by natural and anthropogenic global change.     

Systematic review and meta-analysis of PIT tagging effects on mortality and growth of juvenile salmonids

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries - A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the appropriate tag:fish size ratio when tagging juvenile salmonids (genera Oncorhynchus,...     

Chloroplasts require glutathione reductase to balance reactive oxygen species and maintain efficient photosynthesis

Thiol‐based redox‐regulation is vital for coordinating chloroplast functions depending on illumination and has been throroughly investigated for thioredoxin‐dependent processes. In parallel, glutathione reductase (GR) maintains a highly reduced glutathione pool, enabling glutathione‐mediated redox buffering. Yet, how the redox cascades of the thioredoxin and glutathione redox machineries integrate metabolic regulation and detoxification of reactive oxygen species remains largely unresolved because null mutants of plastid/mitochondrial GR are embryo‐lethal in Arabidopsis thaliana. To investigate whether maintaining a highly reducing stromal glutathione redox potential (E_GSH) via GR is necessary for functional photosynthesis and plant growth, we created knockout lines of the homologous enzyme in the model moss Physcomitrella patens. In these viable mutant lines, we found decreasing photosynthetic performance and plant growth with increasing light intensities, whereas ascorbate and zeaxanthin/antheraxanthin levels were elevated. By in vivo monitoring stromal E_GSH dynamics, we show that stromal E_GSH is highly reducing in wild‐type and clearly responsive to light, whereas an absence of GR leads to a partial glutathione oxidation, which is not rescued by light. By metabolic labelling, we reveal changing protein abundances in the GR knockout plants, pinpointing the adjustment of chloroplast proteostasis and the induction of plastid protein repair and degradation machineries. Our results indicate that the plastid thioredoxin system is not a functional backup for the plastid glutathione redox systems, whereas GR plays a critical role in maintaining efficient photosynthesis.     

Impacts of predator-mediated interactions along a climatic gradient on the population dynamics of an alpine bird

According to classic theory, species'' population dynamics and distributions are less influenced by species interactions under harsh climatic conditions compared to under more benign climatic conditions. In alpine and boreal ecosystems in Fennoscandia, the cyclic dynamics of rodents strongly affect many other species, including ground-nesting birds such as ptarmigan. According to the ‘alternative prey hypothesis’ (APH), the densities of ground-nesting birds and rodents are positively associated due to predator–prey dynamics and prey-switching. However, it remains unclear how the strength of these predator-mediated interactions change along a climatic harshness gradient in comparison with the effects of climatic variation. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the sensitivity of ptarmigan populations to interannual variation in climate and rodent occurrence across Norway during 2007–2017. Ptarmigan abundance was positively linked with rodent occurrence, consistent with the APH. Moreover, we found that the link between ptarmigan abundance and rodent dynamics was strongest in colder regions. Our study highlights how species interactions play an important role in population dynamics of species at high latitudes and suggests that they can become even more important in the most climatically harsh regions.