The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment?

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution.     

Stochastic processes are key determinants of short-term evolution in influenza a virus

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus is central to its surveillance and control. While immune-driven antigenic drift is a key determinant of viral evolution across epidemic seasons, the evolutionary processes shaping influenza virus diversity within seasons are less clear. Here we show with a phylogenetic analysis of 413 complete genomes of human H3N2 influenza A viruses collected between 1997 and 2005 from New York State, United States, that genetic diversity is both abundant and largely generated through the seasonal importation of multiple divergent clades of the same subtype. These clades cocirculated within New York State, allowing frequent reassortment and generating genome-wide diversity. However, relatively low levels of positive selection and genetic diversity were observed at amino acid sites considered important in antigenic drift. These results indicate that adaptive evolution occurs only sporadically in influenza A virus; rather, the stochastic processes of viral migration and clade reassortment play a vital role in shaping short-term evolutionary dynamics. Thus, predicting future patterns of influenza virus evolution for vaccine strain selection is inherently complex and requires intensive surveillance, whole-genome sequencing, and phenotypic analysis.     

A versatile multivariate image analysis pipeline reveals features of Xenopus extract spindles

Imaging datasets are rich in quantitative information. However, few cell biologists possess the tools necessary to analyze them. Here, we present a large dataset of Xenopus extract spindle images together with an analysis pipeline designed to assess spindle morphology across a range of experimental conditions. Our analysis of different spindle types illustrates how kinetochore microtubules amplify spindle microtubule density. Extract mixing experiments reveal that some spindle features titrate, while others undergo switch-like transitions, and multivariate analysis shows the pleiotropic morphological effects of modulating the levels of TPX2, a key spindle assembly factor. We also apply our pipeline to analyze nuclear morphology in human cell culture, showing the general utility of the segmentation approach. Our analyses provide new insight into the diversity of spindle types and suggest areas for future study. The approaches outlined can be applied by other researchers studying spindle morphology and adapted with minimal modification to other experimental systems.     

Persistence thresholds for phocine distemper virus infection in harbour seal Phoca vitulina metapopulations

1. This paper explores the concept of the critical community size for persistence of infection in wildlife populations. We use as a case study the 1988 epidemic of phocine distemper virus in the North Sea population of harbour seals, Phoca vitulina .
2. We summarize the available data on this epidemic and use it to parameterize a stochastic compartmental model for an infection spreading through a spatial array of patches coupled by nearest-neighbour mixing, with replacement of susceptibles occurring as a discrete annual event.
3. A combination of analytical and simulation techniques is used to show that the high levels of transmission between different seal subpopulations, combined with the small annual birth cohort, act to make persistence of infection impossible in this harbour seal population at realistic population levels. The well known mechanisms by which metapopulation structures may act to promote persistence can be seen to have an effect only at weaker levels of spatial coupling, and higher levels of host recruitment, than those empirically observed.     

Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales.

A key issue in metapopulation dynamics is the relative impact of internal patch dynamics and coupling between patches. This problem can be addressed by analysing large spatiotemporal data sets, recording the local and global dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of measles meta-populations in a large spatiotemporal case notification data set, collected during the pre-vaccination era in England and Wales. Specifically, we use generalized linear statistical models to quantify the relative importance of local influences (birth rate and population size) and regional coupling on local epidemic dynamics. Apart from the proportional effect of local population size on case totals, the models indicate patterns of local and regional dynamic influences which depend on the current state of epidemics. Birth rate and geographic coupling are not associated with the size of major epidemics. By contrast, minor epidemics--and especially the incidence of local extinction of infection--are influenced both by birth rate and geographical coupling. Birth rate at a lag of four years provides the best fit, reflecting the delayed recruitment of susceptibles to school cohorts. A hierarchical index of spatial coupling to large centres provides the best spatial model. The model also indicates that minor epidemics and extinction patterns are more strongly influenced by this regional effect than the local impact of birth rate.     

Cities and villages: infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation

An important issue in the dynamics of directly transmitted microparasites is the relationship between infection probability and host density. We use models and extensive spatio-temporal data for the incidence of measles to examine evidence for spatial heterogeneity in transmission probability, in terms of urban–rural hierarchies in infection rate. Pre-vaccination measles data for England and Wales show strong evidence for urban–rural heterogeneities in infection rate – the proportion of urban cases rises significantly before major epidemics. The model shows that this effect is consistent with a higher infection rate in large cities, though small towns have epidemic characteristics intermediate between town and country. Surprisingly, urban and rural areas of the same population size have a similar propensity for local extinction of infection. A spatial map of urban–rural correlations reveals complex regional patterns of synchronization of towns and cities. The hierarchical heterogeneities in infection persist into the vaccine era; their implications for disease persistence and control are discussed.     

Modification of biological responses to interleukin-1 by agents that perturb signal transduction pathways.

In this study we have examined the effect of agents known to perturb certain signal transduction pathways on the biological responses of target cells to stimulation with interleukin-1 (IL-1). In the murine thymoma cell line EL4, IL-1 stimulation results in the secretion of interleukin-2 (IL-2), which was subsequently measured by proliferation of an IL-2-dependent cell line. Agents that elevated intracellular cAMP blocked or partially blocked IL-1 induction of IL-2 secretion, whereas agents that activated protein kinase C (PKC) resulted in a synergistic enhancement. Both pertussis and cholera toxins also inhibited IL-1-induced IL-2 secretion, although probably by acting at different levels. IL-1 simulation of human and murine fibroblasts resulted in release of prostaglandin E2. This response was inhibitable by pertussis toxin but not by cholera toxin, whereas co-stimulation of the fibroblasts with IL-1 and phorbol ester resulted in a synergistic response. Murine fibroblasts could also be stimulated to proliferate by IL-1, and this response was also inhibitable by pertussis toxin. These findings are consistent with coupling of the IL-1 receptor to a signalling pathway via a pertussis toxin substrate.     

Gastrointestinal nematode parasites and the stability and productivity of intensive ruminant grazing systems

This paper uses mathematical models, describing the transmission dynamics of directly transmitted gastrointestinal nematode parasites of sheep and cattle, to examine the impact of these parasites on the stability and productivity of ruminant grazing systems. Current models of the ecology of grass growth under grazing, and the epidemiology of trichostrongylid nematode parasites of ruminants, are combined in a formulation that captures the general features of the plant - (ruminant) herbivore - parasite interaction. The simplest case, in which herbivore numbers are constant and not food limited (the norm for many agricultural systems) is considered in detail. The effect of gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing herbivore feeding rates is shown to act as a potential density-dependent constraint on the parasite's infection rate. The process is manifested in the model as a progressive linearization of the relation between herbivore feeding rate and plant density at the parasite equilibrium. This effect acts to stabilize the dynamics of the model grazing system and significantly affects its predictions about the impact of parasite control and the pattern of host productivity. Model predictions are discussed in the light of relevant field observations, and areas for future research are identified.