Spatial distribution and prediction of seed production by Eucalyptus microcarpa in a fragmented landscape

Woodlands worldwide have been greatly modified by clearing for agriculture, and their conservation and restoration requires understanding of tree recruitment processes. Seed production is one possible point of recruitment failure, and one that the spatial arrangement of trees may affect. We sampled 118 Eucalyptus microcarpa (Myrtaceae) trees to compare and analyse the determinants of seed production in this dominant tree of modified, fragmented temperate grassy woodlands, which extend over much of southeastern Australia. Fecundity was estimated as the seed crop measured on leaf mass and whole tree bases and was compared between categories of tree configuration. We also modelled fecundity using boosted regression trees, a new and flexible tool. Fecundity on a leaf mass basis was predominantly influenced by environmental factors (topographic ‘wetness’, slope, soil type), rather than by local tree density and configuration. Fewer seed per unit leaf mass were produced on flat and topographically wet sites, reflecting poor tolerance of waterlogging by E. microcarpa. By contrast, whole tree fecundity was little influenced by environmental factors. Local tree density and configuration did influence whole tree fecundity, which was high in solitary and woodland‐spaced trees and reduced under high local density. We found little evidence for reduced fecundity of E. microcarpa in solitary trees. This points to the importance of scattered trees as sources of seed for tree recruitment and for natural regeneration of landscape level tree cover. Considerable uncertainty remains in modelled seed supply, and may be reduced with sampling across multiple years and greater environmental and spatial domains.