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Goldstein DB; Zhivotovsky LA; Nayar K; Linares AR; Cavalli-Sforza LL; Feldman MW 《Molecular biology and evolution》1996,13(9):1213-1218
It has recently been suggested that observed levels of variation at
microsatellite loci can be used to infer patterns of selection in genomes
and to assess demographic history. In order to evaluate the feasibility of
these suggestions it is necessary to know something about how levels of
variation at microsatellite loci are expected to fluctuate due simply to
stochasticity in the processes of mutation and inheritance (genetic
sampling). Here we use recently derived properties of the stepwise mutation
model to place confidence intervals around the variance in repeat score
that is expected at mutation-drift equilibrium and outline a statistical
test for whether an observed value differs significantly from expectation.
We also develop confidence intervals for the time course of the buildup of
variation following a complete elimination of variation, such as might be
caused by a selective sweep or an extreme population bottleneck. We apply
these methods to the variation observed at human Y-specific
microsatellites. Although a number of authors have suggested the
possibility of a very recent sweep, our analyses suggest that a sweep or
extreme bottleneck is unlikely to have occurred anytime during the last
approximately 74,000 years. To generate this result we use a recently
estimated mutation rate for microsatellite loci of 5.6 x 10(-4) along with
the variation observed at autosomal microsatellite loci to estimate the
human effective population size. This estimate is 18,000, implying an
effective number of 4,500 Y chromosomes. One important general conclusion
to emerge from this study is that in order to reject mutation-drift
equilibrium at a set of linked microsatellite loci it is necessary to have
an unreasonably large number of loci unless the observed variance is far
below that expected at mutation-drift equilibrium.
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