Estimation and inference of R0 of an infectious pathogen by a removal method

The basic reproductive ratio, R0, is a central quantity in the investigation and management of infectious pathogens. The standard model for describing stochastic epidemics is the continuous time epidemic birth-and-death process. The incidence data used to fit this model tend to be collected in discrete units (days, weeks, etc.), which makes model fitting, and estimation of R0 difficult. Discrete time epidemic models better match the time scale of data collection but make simplistic assumptions about the stochastic epidemic process. By investigating the nature of the assumptions of a discrete time epidemic model, we derive a bias corrected maximum likelihood estimate of R0 based on the chain binomial model. The resulting 'removal' estimators provide estimates of R0 and the initial susceptible population size from time series of infectious case counts. We illustrate the performance of the estimators on both simulated data and real epidemics. Lastly, we discuss methods to address data collected with observation error.     

The AMPA receptor subunits GluR-A and GluR-B reciprocally modulate spinal synaptic plasticity and inflammatory pain

Ca(2+)-permeable AMPA receptors are densely expressed in the spinal dorsal horn, but their functional significance in pain processing is not understood. By disrupting the genes encoding GluR-A or GluR-B, we generated mice exhibiting increased or decreased numbers of Ca(2+)-permeable AMPA receptors, respectively. Here, we demonstrate that AMPA receptors are critical determinants of nociceptive plasticity and inflammatory pain. A reduction in the number of Ca(2+)-permeable AMPA receptors and density of AMPA channel currents in spinal neurons of GluR-A-deficient mice is accompanied by a loss of nociceptive plasticity in vitro and a reduction in acute inflammatory hyperalgesia in vivo. In contrast, an increase in spinal Ca(2+)-permeable AMPA receptors in GluR-B-deficient mice facilitated nociceptive plasticity and enhanced long-lasting inflammatory hyperalgesia. Thus, AMPA receptors are not mere determinants of fast synaptic transmission underlying basal pain sensitivity as previously thought, but are critically involved in activity-dependent changes in synaptic processing of nociceptive inputs.     

Development and evaluation of 4-(pyrrolidin-3-yl)benzonitrile derivatives as inhibitors of lysine specific demethylase 1

As part of our ongoing efforts to develop reversible inhibitors of LSD1, we identified a series of 4-(pyrrolidin-3-yl)benzonitrile derivatives that act as successful scaffold-hops of the literature inhibitor GSK-690. The most active compound, 21g, demonstrated a K_d value of 22 nM and a biochemical IC₅₀ of 57 nM. In addition, this compound displayed improved selectivity over the hERG ion channel compared to GSK-690, and no activity against the related enzymes MAO-A and B. In human THP-1 acute myeloid leukaemia cells, 21g was found to increase the expression of the surrogate cellular biomarker CD86. This work further demonstrates the versatility of scaffold-hopping as a method to develop structurally diverse, potent inhibitors of LSD1.     

The design and synthesis of indazole and pyrazolopyridine based glucokinase activators for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Glucokinase activators represent a promising potential treatment for patients with Type 2 diabetes. Herein, we report the identification and optimization of a series of novel indazole and pyrazolopyridine based activators leading to the identification of 4-(6-(azetidine-1-carbonyl)-5-fluoropyridin-3-yloxy)-2-ethyl-N-(5-methylpyrazin-2-yl)-2H-indazole-6-carboxamide (42) as a potent activator with favorable preclinical pharmacokinetic properties and in vivo efficacy.