Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose

Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8–29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52–0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25–0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37–0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23–0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses.

There are two widely used COVID-19 vaccination strategies; administering the two doses three to four weeks apart or delaying the administration of the second dose. A modelling study calibrated to COVID-19 spread and vaccination in the US shows that delaying the second dose can maximize the benefits of vaccination programs under certain conditions.     

The Evolution of Tuberculosis Virulence

The evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis presents several challenges for public health. HIV and resistance to antimycobacterial medications have evolutionary implications for how Mycobacterium tuberculosis will evolve, as these factors influence the host environment and transmission dynamics of tuberculosis strains. We present an evolutionary invasion analysis of tuberculosis that characterizes the direction of tuberculosis evolution in the context of different natural and human-driven selective pressures, including changes in tuberculosis treatment and HIV prevalence. We find that the evolution of tuberculosis virulence can be affected by treatment success rates, the relative transmissibility of emerging strains, the rate of reactivation from latency among hosts, and the life expectancy of hosts. We find that the virulence of tuberculosis strains may also increase as a consequence of rising HIV prevalence, requiring faster case detection strategies in areas where the epidemics of HIV and tuberculosis collide.     

Atypical B cells are part of an alternative lineage of B cells that participates in responses to vaccination and infection in humans

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PfSPZ-CVac efficacy against malaria increases from 0% to 75% when administered in the absence of erythrocyte stage parasitemia: A randomized,placebo-controlled trial with controlled human malaria infection

PfSPZ-CVac combines ‘PfSPZ Challenge’, which consists of infectious Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites (PfSPZ), with concurrent antimalarial chemoprophylaxis. In a previously-published PfSPZ-CVac study, three doses of 5.12x10⁴ PfSPZ-CVac given 28 days apart had 100% vaccine efficacy (VE) against controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) 10 weeks after the last immunization, while the same dose given as three injections five days apart had 63% VE. Here, we conducted a dose escalation trial of similarly condensed schedules. Of the groups proceeding to CHMI, the first study group received three direct venous inoculations (DVIs) of a dose of 5.12x10⁴ PfSPZ-CVac seven days apart and the next full dose group received three DVIs of a higher dose of 1.024x10⁵ PfSPZ-CVac five days apart. CHMI (3.2x10³ PfSPZ Challenge) was performed by DVI 10 weeks after the last vaccination. In both CHMI groups, transient parasitemia occurred starting seven days after each vaccination. For the seven-day interval group, the second and third vaccinations were therefore administered coincident with parasitemia from the prior vaccination. Parasitemia was associated with systemic symptoms which were severe in 25% of subjects. VE in the seven-day group was 0% (7/7 infected) and in the higher-dose, five-day group was 75% (2/8 infected). Thus, the same dose of PfSPZ-CVac previously associated with 63% VE when given on a five-day schedule in the prior study had zero VE here when given on a seven-day schedule, while a double dose given on a five-day schedule here achieved 75% VE. The relative contributions of the five-day schedule and/or the higher dose to improved VE warrant further investigation. It is notable that administration of PfSPZ-CVac on a schedule where vaccine administration coincided with blood-stage parasitemia was associated with an absence of sterile protective immunity.Clinical trials registration: {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT02773979","term_id":"NCT02773979"}}NCT02773979.     

Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND:Estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vary widely in different population settings. We sought to estimate and compare the COVID-19 CFR in Canada and the United States while adjusting for 2 potential biases in crude CFR.METHODS:We used the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada and the US from Jan. 31 to Apr. 22, 2020. We applied a statistical method to minimize bias in the crude CFR by accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death, while considering reporting rates of COVID-19 cases less than 50% (95% confidence interval 10%–50%).RESULTS:Using data for confirmed cases in Canada, we estimated the crude CFR to be 4.9% on Apr. 22, 2020, and the adjusted CFR to be 5.5% (credible interval [CrI] 4.9%–6.4%). After we accounted for various reporting rates less than 50%, the adjusted CFR was estimated at 1.6% (CrI 0.7%–3.1%). The US crude CFR was estimated to be 5.4% on Apr. 20, 2020, with an adjusted CFR of 6.1% (CrI 5.4%–6.9%). With reporting rates of less than 50%, the adjusted CFR for the US was 1.78 (CrI 0.8%–3.6%).INTERPRETATION:Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rate is less than 50%, the adjusted CFR of COVID-19 in Canada is likely to be less than 2%. The CFR estimates for the US were higher than those for Canada, but the adjusted CFR still remained below 2%. Quantification of case reporting can provide a more accurate measure of the virulence and disease burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

The risk of death associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is fundamental to the disease burden imposed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Quantification of this risk can provide critical information on the health and socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and identify population subgroups at highest risk for severe outcomes. The risk of death from a diagnosed infection, often referred to as the case-fatality rate (CFR), is the proportion of people who die from a disease among all those diagnosed with the disease over a certain period.Estimates of the COVID-19 CFR vary in different populations and at different stages of the outbreak, ranging from 0.4% in China¹ to 31.4% in the northwest region of Italy.² From individual-level data for patients in Hubei Province, Mainland China,³ an adjusted CFR of 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.6%–3.8%) was estimated. For the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the age-adjusted CFR was estimated at 2.6% (95% CI 0.9%–6.7%) in all age groups but was substantially higher (13.0%, 95% CI 5.2%–26.0%) among those aged 70 years or older.⁴For ongoing outbreaks and especially during the exponential growth phase, the delay between onset of disease and knowledge of the final outcome may result in biased estimates of the CFR.⁵ Furthermore, underestimation of the number of COVID-19 cases will inflate the CFR. Limited ability to test or recognize mildly or moderately symptomatic people in both the United States and Canada has likely led to substantial underestimation of the rate of infection in affected communities.^6,7Given the importance of the CFR in public health planning, we sought to estimate the CFR for ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks in the US and Canada while accounting for preferential ascertainment of severe cases (leading to underestimation) and the lag time between disease onset and death.     

The challenge of the food sufficiency through salt tolerant crops

This work is focused on deserts, as extreme environments, because the year 2006 has been declared Year of Deserts and Desertification by the United Nations (IYDD Program 2006). The loss of vital resources such as fresh water and soil, and the depletion of biodiversity are emerging hazards, able to transform beneficial situations into extreme environments. Desertification is generated by land degradation: the loss of biological productivity is caused by nature or by human-induced factors and climate change. Nearby the desertification process there is the increasing process of salinisation of soil and water, induced by irrigation itself, or by salt water ingress derived by tsunamis or hurricanes. Increased research on the development of salt-tolerant cultivars could, with appropriate management, result in the broader use of saline soils. Although careful application is necessary, the combination of sand, seawater, sun and salt-tolerant plants presents a valuable opportunity for many developing countries. Cooperation among plant ecologists, plant physiologists, plant breeders, soil scientists, and agricultural engineers could accelerate the development of economic salt tolerant crops. If saline water is available, the introduction of salt tolerant plants in poor regions can improve food or fuel supplies, increase employment, help stem desertification, and contribute to soil reclamation. Contribution to the monograph “Life in Extreme Environments”     

Controlled In Situ Seed-Mediated Growth of Gold and Silver Nanoparticles on an Optical Fiber Platform for Plasmonic Sensing Applications

Plasmonics - This study presents an in situ growth technique to develop highly sensitive plasmonic fiber optic sensors with an excellent control over the plasmonic properties of gold (AuNPs) and...