Dealing with Noisy Absences to Optimize Species Distribution Models: An Iterative Ensemble Modelling Approach

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widespread in ecology and conservation biology, but their accuracy can be lowered by non-environmental (noisy) absences that are common in species occurrence data. Here we propose an iterative ensemble modelling (IEM) method to deal with noisy absences and hence improve the predictive reliability of ensemble modelling of species distributions. In the IEM approach, outputs of a classical ensemble model (EM) were used to update the raw occurrence data. The revised data was then used as input for a new EM run. This process was iterated until the predictions stabilized. The outputs of the iterative method were compared to those of the classical EM using virtual species. The IEM process tended to converge rapidly. It increased the consensus between predictions provided by the different methods as well as between those provided by different learning data sets. Comparing IEM and EM showed that for high levels of non-environmental absences, iterations significantly increased prediction reliability measured by the Kappa and TSS indices, as well as the percentage of well-predicted sites. Compared to EM, IEM also reduced biases in estimates of species prevalence. Compared to the classical EM method, IEM improves the reliability of species predictions. It particularly deals with noisy absences that are replaced in the data matrices by simulated presences during the iterative modelling process. IEM thus constitutes a promising way to increase the accuracy of EM predictions of difficult-to-detect species, as well as of species that are not in equilibrium with their environment.     

Evaluating the Ribosomal Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) as a Candidate Dinoflagellate Barcode Marker

Background

DNA barcoding offers an efficient way to determine species identification and to measure biodiversity. For dinoflagellates, an ancient alveolate group of about 2000 described extant species, DNA barcoding studies have revealed large amounts of unrecognized species diversity, most of which is not represented in culture collections. To date, two mitochondrial gene markers, Cytochrome Oxidase I (COI) and Cytochrome b oxidase (COB), have been used to assess DNA barcoding in dinoflagellates, and both failed to amplify all taxa and suffered from low resolution. Nevertheless, both genes yielded many examples of morphospecies showing cryptic speciation and morphologically distinct named species being genetically similar, highlighting the need for a common marker. For example, a large number of cultured Symbiodinium strains have neither taxonomic identification, nor a common measure of diversity that can be used to compare this genus to other dinoflagellates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Internal Transcribed Spacer units 1 and 2 (ITS) of the rDNA operon, as a high resolution marker for distinguishing species dinoflagellates in culture. In our study, from 78 different species, the ITS barcode clearly differentiated species from genera and could identify 96% of strains to a known species or sub-genus grouping. 8.3% showed evidence of being cryptic species. A quarter of strains identified had no previous species identification. The greatest levels of hidden biodiversity came from Scrippsiella and the Pfiesteriaceae family, whilst Heterocapsa strains showed a high level of mismatch to their given species name.

Conclusions/Significance

The ITS marker was successful in confirming species, revealing hidden diversity in culture collections. This marker, however, may have limited use for environmental barcoding due to paralogues, the potential for unidentifiable chimaeras and priming across taxa. In these cases ITS would serve well in combination with other markers or for specific taxon studies.     

MED12 alterations in both human benign and malignant uterine soft tissue tumors

The relationship between benign uterine leiomyomas and their malignant counterparts, i.e. leiomyosarcomas and smooth muscle tumors of uncertain malignant potential (STUMP), is still poorly understood. The idea that a leiomyosarcoma could derive from a leiomyoma is still controversial. Recently MED12 mutations have been reported in uterine leiomyomas. In this study we asked whether such mutations could also be involved in leiomyosarcomas and STUMP oncogenesis. For this purpose we examined 33 uterine mesenchymal tumors by sequencing the hot-spot mutation region of MED12. We determined that MED12 is altered in 66.6% of typical leiomyomas as previously reported but also in 11% of STUMP and 20% of leiomyosarcomas. The mutated allele is predominantly expressed in leiomyomas and STUMP. Interestingly all classical leiomyomas exhibit MED12 protein expression while 40% of atypical leiomyomas, 50% of STUMP and 80% of leiomyosarcomas (among them the two mutated ones) do not express MED12. All these tumors without protein expression exhibit complex genomic profiles. No mutations and no expression loss were identified in an additional series of 38 non-uterine leiomyosarcomas. MED12 mutations are not exclusive to leiomyomas but seem to be specific to uterine malignancies. A previous study has suggested that MED12 mutations in leiomyomas could lead to Wnt/β-catenin pathway activation however our immunohistochemistry results show that there is no association between MED12 status and β-catenin nuclear/cytoplasmic localization. Collectively, our results show that subgroups of benign and malignant tumors share a common genetics. We propose here that MED12 alterations could be implicated in the development of smooth muscle tumor and that its expression could be inhibited in malignant tumors.     

Microarray analyses of inflammation response of human dermal fibroblasts to different strains of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto

In Lyme borreliosis, the skin is the key site of bacterial inoculation by the infected tick, and of cutaneous manifestations, erythema migrans and acrodermatitis chronica atrophicans. We explored the role of fibroblasts, the resident cells of the dermis, in the development of the disease. Using microarray experiments, we compared the inflammation of fibroblasts induced by three strains of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto isolated from different environments and stages of Lyme disease: N40 (tick), Pbre (erythema migrans) and 1408 (acrodermatitis chronica atrophicans). The three strains exhibited a similar profile of inflammation with strong induction of chemokines (CXCL1 and IL-8) and IL-6 cytokine mainly involved in the chemoattraction of immune cells. Molecules such as TNF-alpha and NF-κB factors, metalloproteinases (MMP-1, -3 and -12) and superoxide dismutase (SOD2), also described in inflammatory and cellular events, were up-regulated. In addition, we showed that tick salivary gland extracts induce a cytotoxic effect on fibroblasts and that OspC, essential in the transmission of Borrelia to the vertebrate host, was not responsible for the secretion of inflammatory molecules by fibroblasts. Tick saliva components could facilitate the early transmission of the disease to the site of injury creating a feeding pit. Later in the development of the disease, Borrelia would intensively multiply in the skin and further disseminate to distant organs.     

Genetic Markers Enhance Coronary Risk Prediction in Men: The MORGAM Prospective Cohorts

Background

More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design.

Methods

Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5–18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived.

Results

Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50–59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events.

Conclusions

Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.     

Interaction between coastal and oceanic ecosystems of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean through predator-prey relationship studies

The Western and Central Pacific Ocean sustains the highest tuna production in the world. This province is also characterized by many islands and a complex bathymetry that induces specific current circulation patterns with the potential to create a high degree of interaction between coastal and oceanic ecosystems. Based on a large dataset of oceanic predator stomach contents, our study used generalized linear models to explore the coastal-oceanic system interaction by analyzing predator-prey relationship. We show that reef organisms are a frequent prey of oceanic predators. Predator species such as albacore (Thunnus alalunga) and yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) frequently consume reef prey with higher probability of consumption closer to land and in the western part of the Pacific Ocean. For surface-caught-predators consuming reef prey, this prey type represents about one third of the diet of predators smaller than 50 cm. The proportion decreases with increasing fish size. For predators caught at depth and consuming reef prey, the proportion varies with predator species but generally represents less than 10%. The annual consumption of reef prey by the yellowfin tuna population was estimated at 0.8 ± 0.40 CV million tonnes or 2.17 × 10(12)± 0.40 CV individuals. This represents 6.1% ± 0.17 CV in weight of their diet. Our analyses identify some of the patterns of coastal-oceanic ecosystem interactions at a large scale and provides an estimate of annual consumption of reef prey by oceanic predators.     

Activation of an NLRP3 inflammasome restricts Mycobacterium kansasii infection

Mycobacterium kansasii has emerged as an important nontuberculous mycobacterium pathogen, whose incidence and prevalence have been increasing in the last decade. M. kansasii can cause pulmonary tuberculosis clinically and radiographically indistinguishable from that caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Unlike the widely-studied M. tuberculosis, little is known about the innate immune response against M. kansasii infection. Although inflammasome activation plays an important role in host defense against bacterial infection, its role against atypical mycobacteria remains poorly understood. In this report, the role of inflammasome activity in THP-1 macrophages against M. kansasii infection was studied. Results indicated that viable, but not heat-killed, M. kansasii induced caspase-1-dependent IL-1β secretion in macrophages. The underlying mechanism was found to be through activation of an inflammasome containing the NLR (Nod-like receptor) family member NLRP3 and the adaptor protein ASC (apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD). Further, potassium efflux, lysosomal acidification, ROS production and cathepsin B release played a role in M. kansasii-induced inflammasome activation. Finally, the secreted IL-1β derived from caspase-1 activation was shown to restrict intracellular M. kansasii. These findings demonstrate a biological role for the NLRP3 inflammasome in host defense against M. kansasii.     

Tolerance of an Expanding Subarctic Shrub,Betula glandulosa,to Simulated Caribou Browsing

Densification of the shrub layer has been reported in many subarctic regions, raising questions about the implication for large herbivores and their resources. Shrubs can tolerate browsing and their level of tolerance could be affected by browsing and soils productivity, eventually modifying resource availability for the caribou. Our objective was to assess the compensatory growth potential of a subarctic shrub, Betula glandulosa Michx., in relation with caribou browsing and nutriment availability for the plants. We used a simulated browsing (0, 25 and 75% of available shoots) and nitrogen-fertilisation (0 and 10 g m⁻²) experiment to test two main hypotheses linking tolerance to resource availability, the Compensatory Continuum Hypothesis and the Growth Rate Hypothesis as well as the predictions from the Limiting Resource Model. We seek to explicitly integrate the relative browsing pressure in our predictions since the amount of tissues removed could affect the capacity of long-lived plants to compensate. Birches fully compensated for moderate browsing with an overall leaf biomass similar to unbrowsed birches but undercompensated under heavy browsing pressure. The main mechanism explaining compensation appears to be the conversion of short shoots into long shoots. The leaf area increased under heavy browsing pressure but only led to undercompensation. Fertilisation for two consecutive years did not influence the response of birch, thus we conclude that our results support the LRM hypothesis of equal tolerance under both high and low nitrogen availability. Our results highlight that the potential for compensatory growth in dwarf birch is surpassed under heavy browsing pressure independently of the fertilisation regime. In the context of the worldwide decline in caribou herds, the reduction in browsing pressure could act synergistically with global climate change to promote the current shrub expansion reported in subarctic regions.