Statistical power analysis of a 2-year field study and design of experiments to evaluate non-target effects of genetically modified Bacillius thuringiensis corn

Abstract 1. A 2‐year field study was conducted in 2000 and 2001 at a farm in Monmouth, Illinois to evaluate the effect of MON 863, a transgenic corn event that expresses the Cry3Bb1 protein for control of corn rootworms, on diverse groups of arthropod populations in a corn ecosystem. 2. The field study employed a split‐plot design with MON 863 and conventional corn as the main plots and several insecticide treatments as subplots; each main plot was replicated four times (i.e. n = 4 block replications for each corn variety). A large number of arthropod taxa were trapped, taxonomically characterised, and counted in all plots. A mixed linear repeated‐measures model was used for analysis of each taxon collected to determine if there was an effect of MON 863 or insecticide regime on that taxonomic group. 3. This report describes the results of a power analysis to determine the ability of the study design to detect an effect of MON 863 corn on the abundance of different groups of arthropods. A 50% difference in average taxon abundance between MON 863 and conventional corn plots was the criterion used in assessing the power. 4. A statistical power analysis of the taxonomic group comparisons made in the 2‐year field study (with independent assignment of treatments each year) showed that only about 28% (22 of 56) of the statistical comparisons made with single years of data achieved ≥80% power to detect a 50% difference in population density. When data from both years of the study were analysed jointly, this level of power was obtained for 86% (24 of 28) the comparisons made. 5. Graphical examination of the mean abundance and coefficient of variation (CV) for different taxa indicated that high abundance (> 5 trap captures per plot per sampling period) and low CV (< 100%) contributed to high statistical power (> 80%). Taxa with extremely low abundance (mean trap captures < 1 individual per plot per sampling period) generally had high CV (> 100%), and statistical comparisons for those taxa had lower power (< 80%). 6. The relevance of these findings for designing field studies on the effects of genetically modified crops on non‐target arthropods with desired levels of power is discussed.     

Genome Structure and Evolution of Naegleria and its Relatives

In the 4 yr since the molecular biology of DNA in Naegleria was last reviewed several major advances have been made, and these are reviewed here: isolation and characterization of mitochondrial and ribosomal DNAs; enumeration of chromosomal DNAs by pulsed field gel electrophoresis; sequence analysis of differentially expressed genes; phylogenetic placement of the genus Naegleria among the eukarayotes and Naegleria species within the genus.     

Survival of Strains of Soft Rot Coliform Bacteria on Microthreads Exposed in the Laboratory and in the Open Air

Survival of 5 strains of the plant pathogen, Erwinia carotovora var. atroseptica and 3 strains of the plant pathogen E. carotovora var. carotovora , grown in a liquid tryptone medium and held as 'captive'aerosols on gossamer microthreads, was determined under different atmospheric conditions in a controlled environment room and in the open air. Although these bacteria lost viability more quickly than a robust reference strain of Escherichia coli , sufficient numbers survived for 15 min or more to indicate that airborne spread of viable propagules could take place, especially under cool humid atmospheric conditions. Cells of one strain of each organism extracted from rotted potato tuber tissue were shown to behave rather like those cultured in the tryptone medium.     

Impacts of birds of prey on gamebirds in the UK: a review

The influence of predators on the distribution, density and dynamics of their prey species has long been of interest to ecologists and wildlife managers. Where the prey population is also utilized by humans, conflicts may arise through competition for a limited resource. Because gamebird shooting in the UK provides employment, recreation and income, the impact of birds of prey on gamebird populations has been the subject of intense debate for many years. Various approaches have been used to assess the impacts that raptors have on gamebird populations. Here we review the applicability and limitations of the methods used and assess the scientific evidence for population-level and economic impacts of raptors on gamebird populations in the UK. Raptors may, in some situations, take large numbers of gamebirds and may be an important proximate cause of mortality, although few studies have addressed the impacts of raptors on either breeding or pre-shooting densities. Two exceptions are studies of Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus , Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus predation on Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus on moorland in Scotland and Sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus predation on Grey Partridge Perdix perdix on farmland in England. Both these studies suggested that raptors could have population-level impacts when their gamebird prey was already at low density. Studies on predation of captively bred gamebirds suggest that numbers taken by raptors at release pens vary considerably and in a few cases raptors have been documented killing relatively large numbers. On the whole, however, it appears that raptors account for a relatively small proportion of mortality among released birds and the impact on subsequent shooting bags is unknown. We summarize important gaps in current knowledge and recommend specific areas for future research.     

Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter

Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive, long‐term studies. Here, using counts of waders (Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe, we present the largest‐scale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the ‘weighted centroids’ of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km, generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge, this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study, but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year‐to‐year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature, but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range, suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms, assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature, but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that, with warming temperatures, hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers, but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas.