Avian nest predation, competition and the decline of British Marsh Tits Parus palustris

Data from long-term schemes monitoring abundance and breeding performance were used to investigate the patterns and causes of decline of the Marsh Tit Parus palustris in Britain. Data from the British Trust for Ornithology's Common Birds Census (CBC) showed that declines have occurred to a similar extent in both woodland and farmland. Novel analyses of CBC data with respect to the corresponding data on the abundance of potential avian nest predators and competitors provided no evidence that increases in the numbers of either group have had a deleterious effect on the species. There were no significant relationships with predator numbers and all significant relationships with potential competitors were positive, suggesting common responses to environmental conditions rather than any negative effects of increases in competitor populations. Further evidence for a lack of any effect of nest predation comes from the absence of any decline in breeding success and, specifically, in nest failure rates, over time: failure rates actually fell during the period of decline. The most likely cause of the decline is the degradation of woodland habitats, and the specific ways in which this may have affected Marsh Tits (as opposed to congeneric species whose populations are healthier) are discussed.