Censusing large mammals in Kibale National Park: evaluation of the intensity of sampling required to determine change

Monitoring programmes are essential for management of large mammal populations because they can detect population change. It is vital that we have the means to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas. Kibale National Park is a stronghold for large mammal conservation in Uganda. Past wildlife surveys in Kibale focused on specific taxa or areas, but our large mammal survey covered the entire protected area and we evaluated the intensity of sampling required to determine population change. Using line transect sampling, we found that the distribution of large mammals was nonrandom and related to habitat‐type. However, confidence intervals of population estimates revealed that much more intensive sampling was required to detect changes in population density at a time scale reasonable for management. For many species, populations would have to decline by 40–60% for this method to detect population change. Post‐stratification decreased confidence intervals of density estimates slightly, increasing our ability to detect change. However, confidence intervals of estimates were still too large to detect a meaningful population change on a time scale that would allow management to take action. Most incidences of illegal activity were about 5 km from the park boundary; however, animal densities were not lower in this area.     

Absence of lower genital tract lesions among women of reproductive age infected with Schistosoma mansoni: A cross-sectional study using a colposcope in Western Kenya

BackgroundFemale genital schistosomiasis (FGS) constitutes four different lesions known to be caused by Schistosoma haematobium ova deposited in the genital tract. Schistosoma mansoni ova may also be found in the genital tract. However, it is not known if S. mansoni causes lower genital tract lesions characteristic of FGS.MethodologyThis study was conducted in 8 villages along the shores of Lake Victoria, western Kenya. Stool and urine samples, collected from women of reproductive age on three consecutive days, were analysed for S. mansoni and S. haematobium infection. S. mansoni positive and S. haematobium negative willing participants, aged 18–50 years were invited to answer a questionnaire (demographics, symptoms), undergo a gynaecological examination and cytology specimen collection by an FGS expert.Principal findingsGynaecologic investigations were conducted in 147 S. mansoni-positive women who had a mean infection intensity of 253.3 epg (95% CI: 194.8–311.9 epg). Nearly 90% of them used Lake Victoria as their main water source. None were found to have cervicovaginal grainy sandy patches or rubbery papules. Homogenous yellow patches were found in 12/147 (8.2%) women. Women with homogenous yellow patches were significantly older (47 years) than the rest (34 years, p = 0.001). No association was found between intensity of S. mansoni infection and homogenous yellow patches (p = 0.70) or abnormal blood vessels (p = 0.14). S. mansoni infection intensity was not associated with genital itch, bloody or malodorous vaginal discharge.ConclusionS. mansoni infection was neither associated with lower genital tract lesions nor symptoms typically found in women with FGS.     

Trends in the Output of First-order Basins at Turkey Lakes Watershed, 1982–96

In 1981, we began to monitor the stream flow and chemistry of 13 first-order basins at the Turkey Lakes Watershed, with the objective of measuring the response of an undisturbed forested ecosystem to acid deposition. There was no trend in total annual precipitation received by the watershed, but the average annual water yield (percentage of annual precipitation) declined over the observation period. The proportion of runoff occurring in different seasons also changed, decreasing in the winter and increasing in the spring. In most streams the concentration of SO₄ ²⁻ has decreased coincident with the decline in precipitation inputs. Recovery of the basins from acid deposition (as evidenced by increased pH, increased alkalinity, and decreasing base cation fluxes) has not been uniform. Basins that do not show signs of recovery are characterized by deeper flowpaths and greater potential neutralizing capacity, which minimizes the impacts of acid deposition. Basins that are dominated by shallow flowpaths and lower levels of potential neutralizing capacity are showing some signs of recovery, but their recovery is not complete and it is possible that cation depletion may prevent or retard it. Received 5 October 1999; accepted 9 May 2001.     

Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya

BackgroundAnthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning.MethodsAnthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves.ResultsCattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax.ConclusionThese modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya.We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data.