Causality in Scale Space as an Approach to Change Detection

Kernel density estimation and kernel regression are useful ways to visualize and assess the structure of data. Using these techniques we define a temporal scale space as the vector space spanned by bandwidth and a temporal variable. In this space significance regions that reflect a significant derivative in the kernel smooth similar to those of SiZer (Significant Zero-crossings of derivatives) are indicated. Significance regions are established by hypothesis tests for significant gradient at every point in scale space. Causality is imposed onto the space by restricting to kernels with left-bounded or finite support and shifting kernels forward. We show that these adjustments to the methodology enable early detection of changes in time series constituting live surveillance systems of either count data or unevenly sampled measurements. Warning delays are comparable to standard techniques though comparison shows that other techniques may be better suited for single-scale problems. Our method reliably detects change points even with little to no knowledge about the relevant scale of the problem. Hence the technique will be applicable for a large variety of sources without tailoring. Furthermore this technique enables us to obtain a retrospective reliable interval estimate of the time of a change point rather than a point estimate. We apply the technique to disease outbreak detection based on laboratory confirmed cases for pertussis and influenza as well as blood glucose concentration obtained from patients with diabetes type 1.     

The processing of repetitive extragenic palindromes: the structure of a repetitive extragenic palindrome bound to its associated nuclease

Extragenic sequences in genomes, such as microRNA and CRISPR, are vital players in the cell. Repetitive extragenic palindromic sequences (REPs) are a class of extragenic sequences, which form nucleotide stem-loop structures. REPs are found in many bacterial species at a high copy number and are important in regulation of certain bacterial functions, such as Integration Host Factor recruitment and mRNA turnover. Although a new clade of putative transposases (RAYTs or TnpA_REP) is often associated with an increase in these repeats, it is not clear how these proteins might have directed amplification of REPs. We report here the structure to 2.6 Å of TnpA_REP from Escherichia coli MG1655 bound to a REP. Sequence analysis showed that TnpA_REP is highly related to the IS200/IS605 family, but in contrast to IS200/IS605 transposases, TnpA_REP is a monomer, is auto-inhibited and is active only in manganese. These features suggest that, relative to IS200/IS605 transposases, it has evolved a different mechanism for the movement of discrete segments of DNA and has been severely down-regulated, perhaps to prevent REPs from sweeping through genomes.     

A fossil hominid frontal from Velika Pećina (Croatia) and a consideration of Upper Pleistocene hominids from Yugoslavia

Fossil hominid remains dating to the Upper Pleistocene in Yugoslavia are reviewed. Particular emphasis is placed on the assessment of a hominid frontal from the site of Velika Pe?ina in northwestern Croatia. This specimen represents the earliest absolutely-dated hominid associated with the Upper Paleolithic in Europe. Also the hominid material from the site of Veternica is discussed, and data are presented on the new remains from ?andalja. It is concluded that no Neandertal remains, except for Krapina, have been found in Yugoslavia.     

THE THERMAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE NEST OF THE SOCIABLE WEAVER PHILETAIRUS SOCIUS: SUMMER OBSERVATIONS

Extending a previous study of the thermal significance of the nest of the Sociable Weaver carried out during the winter, we measured temperature and humidity in the matrix and chambers of a large nest of this species in the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park, South Africa, during the austral summer of December 1973. Air temperatures outside the nest ranged from 16 to 33.5°C but temperatures in occupied chambers varied over a range of only 7 or 8°C and remained well within the zone of thermal neutrality for a passerine bird of this size. Compared to outside air temperatures, those within the nest matrix were lower during the day and higher at night. Thus, the nest ameliorates the effects of external temperatures and allows maintenance inside the chambers of a range of temperature favourable to the birds. In winter we found up to five roosting adults per chamber, with some chambers left empty. In the same nest in summer we found no more than two adults per chamber but virtually all chambers were occupied. The principal mechanism for maintaining chambers within the zone of minimal energetic cost is changes in the number of birds in the nest chambers at night. Humidity inside the occupied and unoccupied chambers was somewhat higher in the former but always less than that of outside air in both cases. Air movement through the desiccated nest materials causes uptake by these materials of most of the water vapour introduced by the birds, and this moisture is dissipated to the outside during the day so that the nest remains dry. The highly social and colonial habits of the birds and their year-round occupancy and maintenance of the nest favour a system of opportunistic breeding that may be initiated by rainfall at any season. Larger nests provide the most favourable environment for energy conservation and successful reproduction. Even the largest nests, however, do not prevent predation during the warm season by snakes such as the Cape Cobra, which may consume all the eggs and young in all the chambers of a large nest. The effects of such heavy predation may be offset by the birds' capability for breeding during times too cold for reptile activity. It seems likely that in smaller nests such as those on telephone poles, lack of predation would favour summer breeding while thermal problems would limit breeding success in winter. In larger nests, breeding success may be lower in summer because of predation and higher in winter when reptile predation is lacking and thermal problems are minimized by the nest structure. The large nest not only makes possible the success of the Sociable Weaver in desert areas, but the nest could only exist in such areas and the species' range is thereby restricted. Higher humidity and heavier rainfall would cause fermentation within the nest mass, loss of its thermoregulatory advantages, and ultimately its decomposition and destruction. Therefore, the unique nesting system of the Sociable Weaver appears to be initially self-reinforcing and ultimately self-limiting.