Evaluation of Software for Propagating Uncertainty Through Risk Assessment Models

Quantitative uncertainty analysis has become a common component of risk assessments. In risk assessment models, the most robust method for propagating uncertainty is Monte Carlo simulation. Many software packages available today offer Monte Carlo capabilities while requiring minimal learning time, computational time, and/or computer memory. This paper presents an evalu ation of six software packages in the context of risk assessment: Crystal Ball, @Risk, Analytica, Stella II, PRISM, and Susa-PC. Crystal Ball and @Risk are spreadsheet based programs; Analytica and Stella II are multi-level, influence diagram based programs designed for the construction of complex models; PRISM and Susa-PC are both public-domain programs designed for incorpo rating uncertainty and sensitivity into any model written in Fortran. Each software package was evaluated on the basis of five criteria, with each criterion having several sub-criteria. A ‘User Preferences Table’ was also developed for an additional comparison of the software packages. The evaluations were based on nine weeks of experimentation with the software packages including use of the associated user manuals and test of the software through the use of example problems. The results of these evaluations indicate that Stella II has the most extensive modeling capabilities and can handle linear differential equations. Crystal Ball has the best input scheme for entering uncertain parameters and the best reference materials. @Risk offers a slightly better standard output scheme and requires a little less learning time. Susa-PC has the most options for detailed statistical analysis of the results, such as multiple options for a sensitivity analysis and sophisticated options for inputting correlations. Analytica is a versatile, menu- and graphics-driven package, while PRISM is a more specialized and less user friendly program. When choosing between software packages for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, the choice largely depends on the specifics of the problem being modeled. However, for risk assessment problems that can be implemented on a spreadsheet, Crystal Ball is recommended because it offers the best input options, a good output scheme, adequate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, superior reference materials, and an intuitive spreadsheet basis while requiring very little memory.     

Error reduction in the finite helical axis for knee kinematics

Traditionally the FHA is calculated stepwise between data points (sFHA), requiring down sampling to achieve a sufficiently large step size to minimize error. This paper proposes an alternate FHA calculation approach (rFHA), using a unique reference position to reduce error associated with small rotation angles. This study demonstrated error reduction using the rFHA approach relative to the sFHA approach. Furthermore, the rFHA in the femur is defined at each time point providing a continuous representation of joint motion. These characteristics enable the rFHA to quantify small differences in knee joint motion, providing an excellent measure to quantify knee joint stability.     

Morphological changes in continuously stretched skeletal muscles in sheep

The effects of continuous elongation of skeletal muscles were studied on six sheep who underwent a lengthening osteotomy of the right tibia. Open muscle biopsies were taken from the biceps femoris muscle preoperatively (Group A), after 5 weeks of bone distraction (Group B) and after another 5 weeks without further distraction (Group C). The size and distribution of type 1 (slow-twitch) and type 2 (fast-twitch) muscle fibres were determined from sections stained for myofibrillar ATPase activity. All sections were also evaluated by light microscopy, especially with regard to myopathic changes. The type 2 fibres showed a significant decrease in size from group A to B and from group B to C. The reduction in fibre size from group A to C was 44.2%. The type 1 fibres, on the other hand, showed no significant differences in mean fibre size between the groups. However, there were considerable individual variations in type 1 fibre size between the groups. The distribution of both fibre types was similar in groups A and B (appr. 17% type 1 fibres) whereas the relative number of type 1 fibres was reduced to 12.4% in group C (P less than 0.01). Myopathic changes, i.e. muscle fibre necroses, were not seen in any of the groups. It is concluded that the type 2 fibre atrophy is mainly caused by muscular inactivity during the postoperative period, but an additional effect of continuous stretching of the muscle cannot be excluded.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

The nuclear division and parasexual cycle inPenicillium

The vegetative nuclear division inPenicillium differs from classical mitosis, and a model for the division process is presented. In early divisional stages the interconnected chromosomes are arranged in a ring which breaks, giving rise to a linear configuration which divides by longitudinal splitting. The break may occur with equal probability between each of the chromosomes. At the end of the division process the daughter nuclei regain ring structure. One of the chromosomes is believed to represent a separation center for all the chromosomes. In diploid strains the two haploid genomes show a close somatic association and the nuclear configurations occurring during the divisional cycle are identical to those in the haploids. The double break of the ring structures in diploids will give recombinant nuclei in certain cases. The model explains the available data of the parasexual cycle, and both diploidization and haploidization are believed to represent singlestep processes.     

Physical properties of extruded fish feed with inclusion of different plant (legumes,oilseeds, or cereals) meals

A study was undertaken to evaluate the effect of various ingredients on the physical quality of fish feeds. Eleven fish meal-based diets, formulated to have the same levels of macronutrients, differing in either starch or protein source, were processed in a five section twin-screw extruder. The purified starch, added to reach the nutritional specifications of the diets, was significantly correlated to expansion (r = 0.405, P<0.001), durability (r = 0.276, P=0.012), and hardness (r = 0.494, P<0.001), while such correlations were not seen for the total starch level in the diets. Cellulose, added as filler to reach the same level of NSP in the diets, was negatively correlated to the expansion (r = ?0.603, P<0.001). The specific mechanical energy of the extrusion process was weakly correlated to starch gelatinisation (r = 0.220, P<0.019). The present study showed that traditional parameters and classifications such as chemical composition of plant ingredients are inadequate indicators of processing effects when used in fish diets. The overall conclusion is that processing parameters needed to achieve the desired physical properties of diets, should be based on specific knowledge of each ingredient in the feed.