Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate potential pitfalls of the standard practice of fitting deterministic models to cumulative incidence data. Next, we demonstrate an alternative based on stochastic models fit to raw data from an early phase of 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. We show not only that bias is thereby reduced, but that uncertainty in estimates and forecasts is better quantified and that, critically, lack of model fit is more readily diagnosed. We conclude with a short list of principles to guide the modelling response to future infectious disease outbreaks.     

Frontiers in research on biodiversity and disease

Global losses of biodiversity have galvanised efforts to understand how changes to communities affect ecological processes, including transmission of infectious pathogens. Here, we review recent research on diversity–disease relationships and identify future priorities. Growing evidence from experimental, observational and modelling studies indicates that biodiversity changes alter infection for a range of pathogens and through diverse mechanisms. Drawing upon lessons from the community ecology of free‐living organisms, we illustrate how recent advances from biodiversity research generally can provide necessary theoretical foundations, inform experimental designs, and guide future research at the interface between infectious disease risk and changing ecological communities. Dilution effects are expected when ecological communities are nested and interactions between the pathogen and the most competent host group(s) persist or increase as biodiversity declines. To move beyond polarising debates about the generality of diversity effects and develop a predictive framework, we emphasise the need to identify how the effects of diversity vary with temporal and spatial scale, to explore how realistic patterns of community assembly affect transmission, and to use experimental studies to consider mechanisms beyond simple changes in host richness, including shifts in trophic structure, functional diversity and symbiont composition.     

Range‐wide patterns of migratory connectivity in the western sandpiper Calidris mauri

Understanding the population dynamics of migratory animals and predicting the consequences of environmental change requires knowing how populations are spatially connected between different periods of the annual cycle. We used stable isotopes to examine patterns of migratory connectivity across the range of the western sandpiper Calidris mauri. First, we developed a winter isotope basemap from stable‐hydrogen (δD), ‐carbon (δ¹³C), and ‐nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopes of feathers grown in wintering areas. δD and δ¹⁵N values from wintering individuals varied with the latitude and longitude of capture location, while δ¹³C varied with longitude only. We then tested the ability of the basemap to assign known‐origin individuals. Sixty percent of wintering individuals were correctly assigned to their region of origin out of seven possible regions. Finally, we estimated the winter origins of breeding and migrant individuals and compared the resulting empirical distribution against the distribution that would be expected based on patterns of winter relative abundance. For breeding birds, the distribution of winter origins differed from expected only among males in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (Y‐K) Delta and Nome, Alaska. Males in the Y‐K Delta originated overwhelmingly from western Mexico, while in Nome, there were fewer males from western North America and more from the Baja Peninsula than expected. An unexpectedly high proportion of migrants captured at a stopover site in the interior United States originated from eastern and southern wintering areas, while none originated from western North America. In general, we document substantial mixing between the breeding and wintering populations of both sexes, which will buffer the global population of western sandpipers from the effects of local habitat loss on both breeding and wintering grounds.     

Identification of a biologically active circulating form of rat atrial natriuretic factor

An atrial natriuretic peptide has been isolated from plasma of morphine treated rats by means of glass beads extraction, immunoaffinity chromatography, and reverse phase HPLC. 1.3 micrograms of immunoreactive material was obtained. The biological activity of this material was found comparable to that of ANF (Arg 101 - Tyr 126) on the inhibition of basal aldosterone secretion by rat adrenal zona glomerulosa cells and the displacement curve of iodinated ANF from ANF receptors in a mesenteric artery preparation. Gas phase amino acid sequencing indicated that it is related to ANF (Ser 99 - Tyr 126). These results suggest that the maturation of ANF may require a tryptic-like cleavage after a single Arg residue.     

Notch1 antiapoptotic activity is abrogated by caspase cleavage in dying T lymphocytes

Excessive signaling via the Notch1 receptor inhibits apoptosis in T lymphocytes. Since several antiapoptotic proteins are cleaved by caspases during cell death, we investigated whether Notch1 was a caspase substrate. Results demonstrate that the intracellular domain of Notch1 (NICD) is cleaved into six fragments during apoptosis in Jurkat cells or peripheral T lymphocytes. Notch1 cleavage is prevented by the caspase inhibitors DEVD-fmk and VEID-fmk or by Bcl-2 expression. Caspase-3 and caspase-6 cleave the NICD into six fragments using sites located within the NF-kappaB binding domain, the ankyrin repeats and the transactivation domain. Notch1 cleavage correlates with the loss of HES-1 expression in apoptotic T cells. Notch1 fragments cannot inhibit activation-induced cell death in a T-cell hybridoma, confirming the abrogation of Notch1 antiapoptotic activity by caspases. The ability of the NICD but not the fragments to antagonize Nur77 activity supports a role for this factor in Notch1 antiapoptotic function.     

Problem formulation in the environmental risk assessment for genetically modified plants

Problem formulation is the first step in environmental risk assessment (ERA) where policy goals, scope, assessment endpoints, and methodology are distilled to an explicitly stated problem and approach for analysis. The consistency and utility of ERAs for genetically modified (GM) plants can be improved through rigorous problem formulation (PF), producing an analysis plan that describes relevant exposure scenarios and the potential consequences of these scenarios. A properly executed PF assures the relevance of ERA outcomes for decision-making. Adopting a harmonized approach to problem formulation should bring about greater uniformity in the ERA process for GM plants among regulatory regimes globally. This paper is the product of an international expert group convened by the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Research Foundation.     

Base-pairing potential identified by in vitro selection predicts the kinked RNA backbone observed in the crystal structure of the alfalfa mosaic virus RNA-coat protein complex

The three-dimensional structure of the 3' terminus of alfalfa mosaic virus RNA in complex with an amino-terminal coat protein peptide revealed an unusual RNA fold with inter-AUGC basepairing stabilized by key arginine residues (Guogas, et al., 2004). To probe viral RNA interactions with the full-length coat protein, we have used in vitro genetic selection to characterize potential folding patterns among RNAs isolated from a complex randomized pool. Nitrocellulose filter retention, electrophoretic mobility bandshift analysis, and hydroxyl radical footprinting techniques were used to define binding affinities and to localize the potential RNA-protein interaction sites. Minimized binding sites were identified that included both the randomized domain and a portion of the constant regions of the selected RNAs. The selected RNAs, identified by their ability to bind full-length coat protein, have the potential to form the same unusual inter-AUGC Watson-Crick base pairs observed in the crystal structure, although the primary sequences diverge from the wild-type RNA. A constant feature of both the wild-type RNA and the selected RNAs is a G ribonucleotide in the third position of an AUGC-like repeat. Competitive binding assays showed that substituting adenosine for the constant guanosine in either the wild-type or selected RNAs impaired coat protein binding. These data suggest that the interactions observed in the RNA-peptide structure are likely recapitulated when the full-length protein binds. Further, the results underscore the power of in vitro genetic selection for probing RNA-protein structure and function.