Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of COVID-19 exit strategies in an individual-based transmission model

Many countries are currently dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic and are searching for an exit strategy such that life in society can return to normal. To support this search, computational models are used to predict the spread of the virus and to assess the efficacy of policy measures before actual implementation. The model output has to be interpreted carefully though, as computational models are subject to uncertainties. These can stem from, e.g., limited knowledge about input parameters values or from the intrinsic stochastic nature of some computational models. They lead to uncertainties in the model predictions, raising the question what distribution of values the model produces for key indicators of the severity of the epidemic. Here we show how to tackle this question using techniques for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. We assess the uncertainties and sensitivities of four exit strategies implemented in an agent-based transmission model with geographical stratification. The exit strategies are termed Flattening the Curve, Contact Tracing, Intermittent Lockdown and Phased Opening. We consider two key indicators of the ability of exit strategies to avoid catastrophic health care overload: the maximum number of prevalent cases in intensive care (IC), and the total number of IC patient-days in excess of IC bed capacity. Our results show that uncertainties not directly related to the exit strategies are secondary, although they should still be considered in comprehensive analysis intended to inform policy makers. The sensitivity analysis discloses the crucial role of the intervention uptake by the population and of the capability to trace infected individuals. Finally, we explore the existence of a safe operating space. For Intermittent Lockdown we find only a small region in the model parameter space where the key indicators of the model stay within safe bounds, whereas this region is larger for the other exit strategies.     

2-Hydroxy Arachidonic Acid: A New Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug

Background

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are a family of COX1 and COX2 inhibitors used to reduce the synthesis of pro-inflammatory mediators. In addition, inflammation often leads to a harmful generation of nitric oxide. Efforts are being done in discovering safer NSAIDs molecules capable of inhibiting the synthesis of pro-inflammatory lipid mediators and nitric oxide to reduce the side effects associated with long term therapies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The analogue of arachidonic acid (AA), 2-hydroxy-arachidonic acid (2OAA), was designed to inhibit the activities of COX1 and COX2 and it was predicted to have similar binding energies as AA for the catalytic sites of COX1 and COX2. The interaction of AA and 2OAA with COX1 and COX2 was investigated calculating the free energy of binding and the Fukui function. Toxicity was determined in mouse microglial BV-2 cells. COX1 and COX2 (PGH2 production) activities were measured in vitro. COX1 and COX2 expression in human macrophage-like U937 cells were carried out by Western blot, immunocytochemistry and RT-PCR analysis. NO production (Griess method) and iNOS (Western blot) were determined in mouse microglial BV-2 cells. The comparative efficacy of 2OAA, ibuprofen and cortisone in lowering TNF-α serum levels was determined in C57BL6/J mice challenged with LPS. We show that the presence of the –OH group reduces the likelihood of 2OAA being subjected to H* abstraction in COX, without altering significantly the free energy of binding. The 2OAA inhibited COX1 and COX2 activities and the expression of COX2 in human U937 derived macrophages challenged with LPS. In addition, 2OAA inhibited iNOS expression and the production of NO in BV-2 microglial cells. Finally, oral administration of 2OAA decreased the plasma TNF-α levels in vivo.

Conclusion/Significance

These findings demonstrate the potential of 2OAA as a NSAID.     

Endoplasmic reticulum export sites and Golgi bodies behave as single mobile secretory units in plant cells

In contrast with animals, plant cells contain multiple mobile Golgi stacks distributed over the entire cytoplasm. However, the distribution and dynamics of protein export sites on the plant endoplasmic reticulum (ER) surface have yet to be characterized. A widely accepted model for ER-to-Golgi transport is based on the sequential action of COPII and COPI coat complexes. The COPII complex assembles by the ordered recruitment of cytosolic components on the ER membrane. Here, we have visualized two early components of the COPII machinery, the small GTPase Sar1p and its GTP exchanging factor Sec12p in live tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) leaf epidermal cells. By in vivo confocal laser scanning microscopy and fluorescence recovery after photobleaching experiments, we show that Sar1p cycles on mobile punctate structures that track with the Golgi bodies in close proximity but contain regions that are physically separated from the Golgi bodies. By contrast, Sec12p is uniformly distributed along the ER network and does not accumulate in these structures, consistent with the fact that Sec12p does not become part of a COPII vesicle. We propose that punctate accumulation of Sar1p represents ER export sites (ERES). The sites may represent a combination of Sar1p-coated ER membranes, nascent COPII membranes, and COPII vectors in transit, which have yet to lose their coats. ERES can be induced by overproducing Golgi membrane proteins but not soluble bulk-flow cargos. Few punctate Sar1p loci were observed that are independent of Golgi bodies, and these may be nascent ERES. The vast majority of ERES form secretory units that move along the surface of the ER together with the Golgi bodies, but movement does not influence the rate of cargo transport between these two organelles. Moreover, we could demonstrate using the drug brefeldin A that formation of ERES is strictly dependent on a functional retrograde transport route from the Golgi apparatus.     

Different respiratory syncytial virus and Quillaja saponin formulations induce murine peritoneal cells to express different proinflammatory cytokine profiles

The recognition of a pathogen or a vaccine antigen formulation by cells in the innate immune system leads to production of proinflammatory cytokines, which will determine the ensuing acquired immune response quantitatively and qualitatively. Tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, interleukin (IL)-1 and IL-6 are the first set of cytokines produced upon such an encounter, which have roles both in protective immunity and immunopathogenesis evident with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). RSV antigens in different physical adjuvant-vaccine formulations were analysed for their capacity to provoke cultured murine peritoneal cells to produce these three proinflammatory cytokines. RSV immunostimulating complex (ISCOM), i.e. both antigen and adjuvant are incorporated in the same particle, induced high levels of IL-1alpha being of the same magnitude or higher than those of live RSV and lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Live virus and LPS induced higher levels of IL-6 and TNF-alpha than ISCOM and so did non-adjuvanted UV-inactivated RSV but only at high doses. ISCOM-Matrix, i.e. ISCOM without antigens, admixed as a separate entity to inactivated RSV, downregulated or blocked the cytokine response to the inactivated RSV in contrast to ISCOM. Kinetic studies showed that ISCOM induced cytokine production first detected at hours 1, 2, 4 for TNF-alpha, IL-6 and IL-1alpha respectively, which was earlier than for the other antigen formulations containing corresponding doses of antigen and/or Quillaja adjuvant. Peak values for production of TNF-alpha and IL-6 were at 8 h and for IL-1alpha at 72 h following stimulation with ISCOM. The delayed appearance of IL-1alpha may reflect the cell-bound nature of this cytokine.     

Chaperone protein 14-3-3 and protein kinase A increase the relative abundance of low agonist sensitivity human alpha 4 beta 2 nicotinic acetylcholine receptors in Xenopus oocytes

Alpha4 and beta2 nicotinic acetylcholine (nACh) receptor subunits expressed heterologously in Xenopus oocytes assemble into a mixture of receptors with high and low agonist sensitivity whose relative abundance is influenced by the heteropentamer subunit ratio. We have found that inhibition of protein kinase A by KT5720 decreased maximal [3H]cytisine binding and acetylcholine (ACh)-induced current responses, and increased the relative proportion of alpha4beta2 receptors with high agonist sensitivity. Mutation of serine 467, a putative protein kinase A substrate in a chaperone protein binding motif within the large cytoplasmic domain of the alpha4 subunit, to alanine or asparate decreased or increased, respectively, maximal [3H]cytisine binding and ACh response amplitude. Expression of alpha4S467A mutant subunits decreased steady levels of alpha4 and the relative proportion of alpha4beta2 receptors with low agonist sensitivity, whilst expression of alpha4S467D increased steady levels of alpha4 and alpha4beta2 receptors with low agonist sensitivity. Difopein, an inhibitor of chaperone 14-3-3 proteins, decreased [3H]cytisine binding and ACh responses and increased the proportion of alpha4beta2 with high sensitivity to activation by ACh. Thus, post-translational modification affecting steady-state levels of alpha4 subunits provides a possible means for physiologically relevant, chaperone-mediated variation in the relative proportion of high and low agonist sensitivity alpha4beta2 nACh receptors.     

Abnormal Calcium Handling and Exaggerated Cardiac Dysfunction in Mice with Defective Vitamin D Signaling

Aim

Altered vitamin D signaling is associated with cardiac dysfunction, but the pathogenic mechanism is not clearly understood. We examine the mechanism and the role of vitamin D signaling in the development of cardiac dysfunction.

Methods and Results

We analyzed 1α-hydroxylase (1α-OHase) knockout (1α-OHase^−/−) mice, which lack 1α-OH enzymes that convert the inactive form to hormonally active form of vitamin D. 1α-OHase^−/− mice showed modest cardiac hypertrophy at baseline. Induction of pressure overload by transverse aortic constriction (TAC) demonstrated exaggerated cardiac dysfunction in 1α-OHase^−/− mice compared to their WT littermates with a significant increase in fibrosis and expression of inflammatory cytokines. Analysis of calcium (Ca²⁺) transient demonstrated profound Ca²⁺ handling abnormalities in 1α-OHase^−/− mouse cardiomyocytes (CMs), and treatment with paricalcitol (PC), an activated vitamin D₃ analog, significantly attenuated defective Ca²⁺ handling in 1α-OHase^−/− CMs. We further delineated the effect of vitamin D deficiency condition to TAC by first correcting the vitamin D deficiency in 1α-OHase^−/− mice, followed then by either a daily maintenance dose of vitamin D or vehicle (to achieve vitamin D deficiency) at the time of sham or TAC. In mice treated with vitamin D, there was a significant attenuation of TAC-induced cardiac hypertrophy, interstitial fibrosis, inflammatory markers, Ca²⁺ handling abnormalities and cardiac function compared to the vehicle treated animals.

Conclusions

Our results provide insight into the mechanism of cardiac dysfunction, which is associated with severely defective Ca²⁺ handling and defective vitamin D signaling in 1α-OHase^−/− mice.     

Antibody Complementarity-Determining Regions (CDRs): A Bridge between Adaptive and Innate Immunity

Background

It has been documented that, independently from the specificity of the native antibody (Ab) for a given antigen (Ag), complementarity determining regions (CDR)-related peptides may display differential antimicrobial, antiviral and antitumor activities.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study we demonstrate that a synthetic peptide with sequence identical to V_HCDR3 of a mouse monoclonal Ab (mAb) specific for difucosyl human blood group A is easily taken up by macrophages with subsequent stimulation of: i) proinflammatory cytokine production; ii) PI3K-Akt pathway and iii) TLR-4 expression. Significantly, V_HCDR3 exerts therapeutic effect against systemic candidiasis without possessing direct candidacidal properties.

Conclusions/Significance

These results open a new scenario about the possibility that, beyond the half life of immunoglobulins, Ab fragments may effectively influence the antiinfective cellular immune response in a way reminiscent of regulatory peptides of innate immunity.     

Antiviral activity of benzimidazole derivatives. II. Antiviral activity of 2-phenylbenzimidazole derivatives

Seventy-six 2-phenylbenzimidazole derivatives were synthesized and evaluated in cell-based assays for cytotoxicity and antiviral activity against a panel of 10 RNA and DNA viruses. The most commonly affected viruses were, in decreasing order, CVB-2, BVDV, Sb-1, HSV-1, and YFV, while HIV-1 and VSV were not affected, and RSV, VV and Reo-1 were only susceptible to a few compounds. Thirty-nine compounds exhibited high activity (EC₅₀ = 0.1–10 μM) against at least one virus, and four of them were outstanding for their high and selective activity against VV (24, EC₅₀ = 0.1 μM) and BVDV (50, 51, and 53 with EC₅₀ = 1.5, 0.8, and 1.0 μM, respectively). The last compounds inhibited at low micromolar concentrations the NS5B RdRp of BVDV and also of HCV, the latter sharing structural similarity with the former. The considered compounds represent attractive leads for the development of antiviral agents against poxviruses, pestiviruses and even HCV, which are important human and veterinary pathogens.     

Protein expression changes induced in murine peritoneal macrophages by Group B Streptococcus

Protein expression changes induced in thioglycolate‐elicited peritoneal murine macrophages (MΦ) by infection with type III Group B Streptococcus (GBS) are described. Proteins from control MΦ and MΦ incubated 2 h with live or heat‐inactivated GBS were separated by 2‐DE. Proteins whose expression was significantly different in infected MΦ, as compared with control cells, were identified by MS/MS analysis. Changes in the expression level of proteins involved in both positive and negative modulation of phagocytic functions, stress response and cell death were induced in MΦ by GBS infection. In particular, expression of enzymes playing a key role in production of reactive oxygen species was lowered in GBS‐infected MΦ. Significant alterations in the expression of some metabolic enzymes were also observed, most of the glycolytic and of the pentose‐cycle enzymes being down‐regulated in MΦ infected with live GBS. Finally, evidence was obtained that GBS infection affects the expression of enzymes or enzyme subunits involved in ATP synthesis and in adenine nucleotides interconversion processes.     

Synthesis and biological evaluation of new active For‐Met‐Leu‐Phe‐OMe analogues containing para‐substituted Phe residues

In the present study, we report synthesis and biological evaluation of the N‐Boc‐protected tripeptides 4a–l and N‐For protected tripeptides 5a–l as new For‐Met‐Leu‐Phe‐OMe (fMLF‐OMe) analogues. All the new ligands are characterized by the C‐terminal Phe residue variously substituted at position 4 of the aromatic ring. The agonism of 5a–l and the antagonism of 4a–l (chemotaxis, superoxide anion production, lysozyme release as well as receptor binding affinity) have been examined on human neutrophils. No synthesized compounds has higher activity than the standard fMLF‐OMe tripeptide to stimulate chemotaxis, although compounds 5a and 5c with ‐CH₃ and ‐C(CH₃)₃, respectively, in position 4 on the aromatic ring, are better than the standard tripeptide to stimulate the production of superoxide anion, in higher concentration. Compounds 4f and 4i , containing ‐F and ‐I in position 4, respectively, on the aromatic ring of phenylalanine, exhibit significant chemotactic antagonism. The influence of the different substitution at the position 4 on the aromatic ring of phenylalanine is discussed. Copyright © 2012 European Peptide Society and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.