Validation and Calibration of a Computer Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection

Background

Computer simulation models can project long-term patient outcomes and inform health policy. We internally validated and then calibrated a model of HIV disease in children before initiation of antiretroviral therapy to provide a framework against which to compare the impact of pediatric HIV treatment strategies.

Methods

We developed a patient-level (Monte Carlo) model of HIV progression among untreated children <5 years of age, using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model framework: the CEPAC-Pediatric model. We populated the model with data on opportunistic infection and mortality risks from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA), with mean CD4% at birth (42%) and mean CD4% decline (1.4%/month) from the Women and Infants’ Transmission Study (WITS). We internally validated the model by varying WITS-derived CD4% data, comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves from IeDEA, and identifying best-fitting parameter sets as those with a root-mean square error (RMSE) <0.01. We then calibrated the model to other African settings by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. Model-generated survival curves for children aged 0-60 months were compared, again using RMSE, to UNAIDS data from >1,300 untreated, HIV-infected African children.

Results

In internal validation analyses, model-generated survival curves fit IeDEA data well; modeled and observed survival at 16 months of age were 91.2% and 91.1%, respectively. RMSE varied widely with variations in CD4% parameters; the best fitting parameter set (RMSE = 0.00423) resulted when CD4% was 45% at birth and declined by 6%/month (ages 0-3 months) and 0.3%/month (ages >3 months). In calibration analyses, increases in IeDEA-derived mortality risks were necessary to fit UNAIDS survival data.

Conclusions

The CEPAC-Pediatric model performed well in internal validation analyses. Increases in modeled mortality risks required to match UNAIDS data highlight the importance of pre-enrollment mortality in many pediatric cohort studies.     

In vitro study on the alterations of brain tubulin structure and assembly affected by magnetite nanoparticles

In recent decades, considerable efforts have been made to understand the mechanism of memory, cognition, and relevant neurodegenerative diseases in the human brain. Several studies have shown the importance of microtubule proteins in the memory mechanism and memory dysfunction. Microtubules possess dynamicity, which is essential for functions of neuronal networks. Microtubule-associated proteins, i.e., tau, play vital roles in microtubule stability. On the other hand, the ferromagnetic mineral magnetite (Fe₃O₄) has been detected in the normal human brain, and elevated levels of magnetite are also observed in the brains of Alzheimer’s disease patients. Therefore, we propose that a relationship between microtubule organization in axons and brain magnetite nanoparticles is possible. In this study we found alterations of microtubule polymerization in the presence of increasing concentrations of magnetite through transmission electron microscopy images and a turbidimetry method. Structural changes of microtubule and tau protein, as an essential microtubule-associated protein for tubulin assembly, were detected via circular dichroism spectroscopy, intrinsic fluorescence, and 8-anilino-1-naphthalenesulfonic acid fluorometry. We predicted three possible binding sites on tau protein and one possible binding site on tubulin dimer for magnetite nanoparticles. Magnetite also causes the morphology of PC12 cells to change abnormally and cell viability to decrease. Finally, we suggest that magnetite changes microtubule dynamics and polymerization through two paths: (1) changing the secondary and tertiary structure of tubulin and (2) binding to either tubulin dimer or tau protein and preventing tau–tubulin interaction.     

Assessment of changes in growth traits,oxidative stress parameters,and enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant defense mechanisms in Lepidium draba plant under osmotic stress induced by polyethylene glycol

Protoplasma - Lepidium draba is a weed with the medicinal properties which few researches have been done on it. In this study, some traits, related to the osmotic stress, in 14-day-old L. draba...     

Coxsackievirus A24 variant uses sialic acid-containing O-linked glycoconjugates as cellular receptors on human ocular cells

Coxsackievirus A24 variant (CVA24v) is a main causative agent of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC), which is a highly contagious eye infection. Previously it has been suggested that CVA24v uses sialic acid-containing glycoconjugates as attachment receptors on corneal cells, but the nature of these receptors is poorly described. Here, we set out to characterize and identify the cellular components serving as receptors for CVA24v. Binding and infection experiments using corneal cells treated with deglycosylating enzymes or metabolic inhibitors of de novo glycosylation suggested that the receptor(s) used by CVA24v are constituted by sialylated O-linked glycans that are linked to one or more cell surface proteins but not to lipids. CVA24v bound better to mouse L929 cells overexpressing human P-selectin glycoprotein ligand-1 (PSGL-1) than to mock-transfected cells, suggesting that PSGL-1 is a candidate receptor for CVA24v. Finally, binding competition experiments using a library of mono- and oligosaccharides mimicking known PSGL-1 glycans suggested that CVA24v binds to Neu5Acα2,3Gal disaccharides (Neu5Ac is N-acetylneuraminic acid). These results provide further insights into the early steps of the CVA24v life cycle.     

Implications of the noncoding RNAs in rheumatoid arthritis pathogenesis

Epigenetics refers to a set of regulatory mechanisms that affect gene expression, while the original sequence of the DNA remains unchanged. Because the advance of noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs), the role of microRNAs (miRNAs) has been gradually highlighted in the regulation of numerous cellular processes. A bulk of studies has identified that ncRNAs might be divided into several subtypes. On the one hand, investigations have disclosed the role of these molecules in normal physiological conditions of the cells. On the other hand, there is sufficient evidence that ncRNAs participate in the pathogenesis of diseases. Through this review article, we attempted to gain a comprehensive understanding of the role of ncRNAs, long ncRNAs, miRNAs, and other subtypes in pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Research demonstrated aberrant expression of several miRNAs in various cell and tissue types of patients with RA in comparison to the healthy individuals as well as in animal studies. Furthermore, plausible molecular mechanisms of alterations in ncRNAs expression has been discussed in causing the disease state. These alterations seem promising to be used as biomarkers in RA diagnosis. Alternately, they might be targeted by drugs to interrupt inflammation and other disease complications to treat patients with RA.     

The Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease and the Population Attributable Fraction of Its Risk Factors in Tehran: A 10-Year Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Data on incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) is scarce in the Middle East and little is known about the contribution of known risk factors in this area.

Methods

The incidence of CHD and the effect of modifiable risk factors were explored in 2889 men and 3803 women aged 30–74 years in the population based cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, during 1999–2010. Average population attributable fraction (aPAF) was calculated for any risk factor using direct method based on regression model.

Results

The crude incidence rate in men was about twice that in women (11.9 vs. 6.5 per 1000 person-years). The aPAF of hypertension, diabetes, high total cholesterol and low-HDL cholesterol was 9.4%, 6.7%, 7.3% and 6.1% in men and 17%, 16.6%, 12% and 4.6% in women respectively. This index was 7.0% for smoking in men. High risk age contributed to 42% and 22% of risk in men and women respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence in this population of Iran was comparable to those in the US in the seventies. Well known modifiable risk factors explained about 40% and 50% of CHD burden in men and women respectively. Aging, as a reflection of unmeasured or unknown risk factors, bears the most burden of CHD, especially in men; indicating more age-related health care is required.     

Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in People with and without Diabetes Mellitus: A Middle Eastern Cohort Study

Aims/Hypothesis

To investigate secular trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors during a decade of follow-up in a Middle Eastern cohort, and to compare observed trends between diabetic and non-diabetic populations.

Methods

In a population of 6181 participants (2622 males and 3559 females), diabetes status and CVD risk factors were evaluated in 4 study phases from 1999–2011. 1045 subjects had type 2 diabetes mellitus at baseline and 5136 participants were diabetes-free. To examine the trends of CVD risk factors, generalized estimation equation models were constructed. The interaction between the diabetes status and each phase of the study was checked in a separate model.

Results

During the follow-up period diabetic females significantly gained better control of their blood pressure, serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol and general and central obesity measures compared to non-diabetic counterparts, although 60% of them had high BP and 64% had high serum LDL-C levels till the end of the study. Diabetic males however, experienced significantly better control on their serum LDL-C and general and central obesity measures compared to their non-diabetic controls; but 24% of them were still smoker, 63% had high BP and 60% had high serum LDL-C levels at the end of the follow-up (all Ps _interaction <0.05). Use of lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications increased consistently in both diabetic and non-diabetic populations.

Conclusions/Interpretation

Although CVD risk factors have been controlled to some extent among diabetic population in Iran, still high numbers of people with diabetes have uncontrolled CVD risk factors that prompt more attention.     

Not all are lost: interrupted laboratory monitoring, early death, and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in a large South African treatment program

Background

Many HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings are plagued by high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU). Most studies have not distinguished between those who briefly interrupt, but return to care, and those more chronically lost to follow-up.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 11,397 adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 71 Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference/Catholic Relief Services HIV treatment clinics between January 2004 and December 2008. We distinguished among patients with early death, within the first 7 months on ART; patients with interruptions in laboratory monitoring (ILM), defined as missing visits in the first 7 months on ART, but returning to care by 12 months; and those LTFU, defined as missing all follow-up visits in the first 12 months on ART. We used multilevel logistic regression models to determine patient and clinic-level characteristics associated with these outcomes.

Results

In the first year on ART, 60% of patients remained in care, 30% missed laboratory visits, and 10% suffered early death. Of the 3,194 patients who missed laboratory visits, 40% had ILM, resuming care by 12 months. After 12 months on ART, patients with ILM had a 30% increase in detectable viremia compared to those who remained in care. Risk of LTFU decreased with increasing enrollment year, and was lowest for patients who enrolled in 2008 compared to 2004 [OR 0.49, 95%CI 0.39–0.62].

Conclusions

In a large community-based cohort in South Africa, nearly 30% of patients miss follow-up visits for CD4 monitoring in the first year after starting ART. Of those, 40% have ILM but return to clinic with worse virologic outcomes than those who remain in care. The risk of chronic LTFU decreased with enrollment year. As ART availability increases, interruptions in care may become more common, and should be accounted for in addressing program LTFU.