Dynamic prediction: A challenge for biostatisticians,but greatly needed by patients,physicians and the public

Prognosis is usually expressed in terms of the probability that a patient will or will not have experienced an event of interest t years after diagnosis of a disease. This quantity, however, is of little informative value for a patient who is still event-free after a number of years. Such a patient would be much more interested in the conditional probability of being event-free in the upcoming t years, given that he/she did not experience the event in the s years after diagnosis, called “conditional survival.” It is the simplest form of a dynamic prediction and can be dealt with using straightforward extensions of standard time-to-event analyses in clinical cohort studies. For a healthy individual, a related problem with further complications is the so-called “age-conditional probability of developing cancer” in the next t years. Here, the competing risk of dying from other diseases has to be taken into account. For both situations, the hazard function provides the central dynamic concept, which can be further extended in a natural way to build dynamic prediction models that incorporate both baseline and time-dependent characteristics. Such models are able to exploit the most current information accumulating over time in order to accurately predict the further course or development of a disease. In this article, the biostatistical challenges as well as the relevance and importance of dynamic prediction are illustrated using studies of multiple myeloma, a hematologic malignancy with a formerly rather poor prognosis which has improved over the last few years.     

Social bonds affect anti-predator behaviour in a tolerant species of macaque, Macaca nigra

Enduring positive social bonds between individuals are crucial for humans' health and well being. Similar bonds can be found in a wide range of taxa, revealing the evolutionary origins of humans' social bonds. Evidence suggests that these strong social bonds can function to buffer the negative effects of living in groups, but it is not known whether they also function to minimize predation risk. Here, we show that crested macaques (Macaca nigra) react more strongly to playbacks of recruitment alarm calls (i.e. calls signalling the presence of a predator and eliciting cooperative mobbing behaviour) if they were produced by an individual with whom they share a strong social bond. Dominance relationships between caller and listener had no effect on the reaction of the listener. Thus, strong social bonds may improve the coordination and efficiency of cooperative defence against predators, and therefore increase chances of survival. This result broadens our understanding of the evolution and function of social bonds by highlighting their importance in the anti-predator context.     

Choreography for nucleosomes: the conformational freedom of the nucleosomal filament and its limitations

Eukaryotic DNA is organized into nucleosomes by coiling around core particles of histones, forming a nucleosomal filament. The significance for the conformation of the filament of the DNA entry/exit angle (α) at the nucleosome, the angle of rotation (β) of nucleosomes around their interconnecting DNA (linker DNA) and the length of the linker DNA, has been studied by means of wire models with straight linkers. It is shown that variations in α and β endow the filament with an outstanding conformational freedom when α is increased beyond 60–90°, owing to the ability of the filament to change between forward right-handed and backward left-handed coiling. A wealth of different helical and looped conformations are formed in response to repeated β sequences, and helical conformations are shown to be able to contract to a high density and to associate pairwise into different types of double fibers. Filaments with random β sequences are characterized by relatively stable loop clusters connected by segments of higher flexibility. Displacement of core particles along the DNA in such fibers, combined with limited twisting of the linkers, can generate the β sequence necessary for compaction into a regular helix, thus providing a model for heterochromatinization.     

Production of a New Thiopeptide Antibiotic,TP-1161, by a Marine Nocardiopsis Species

Twenty-seven marine sediment- and sponge-derived actinomycetes with a preference for or dependence on seawater for growth were classified at the genus level using molecular taxonomy. Their potential to produce bioactive secondary metabolites was analyzed by PCR screening for genes involved in polyketide and nonribosomal peptide antibiotic synthesis. Using microwell cultures, conditions for the production of antibacterial and antifungal compounds were identified for 15 of the 27 isolates subjected to this screening. Nine of the 15 active extracts were also active against multiresistant Gram-positive bacterial and/or fungal indicator organisms, including vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium and multidrug-resistant Candida albicans. Activity-guided fractionation of fermentation extracts of isolate TFS65-07, showing strong antibacterial activity and classified as a Nocardiopsis species, allowed the identification and purification of the active compound. Structure elucidation revealed this compound to be a new thiopeptide antibiotic with a rare aminoacetone moiety. The in vitro antibacterial activity of this thiopeptide, designated TP-1161, against a panel of bacterial strains was determined.Natural products remain the most prolific source of new antimicrobials, and the chemical diversity of natural compounds is still unmatched by combinatorial chemistry approaches (9, 31). While the latter has been successfully applied for lead optimization, it basically failed to deliver genuinely new pharmacophores, especially in the field of antimicrobials (31), mainly due to limitations in the structural variety of compounds represented in combinatorial libraries.Most of the antibiotics in clinical use today have been developed from compounds isolated from bacteria and fungi, with members of the actinobacteria being the dominant source (34). Traditionally, most of these antimicrobials have been isolated from soil-derived actinomycetes of the genus Streptomyces. However, isolation strategies in recent years have been directed to unexploited environments like marine sources (40). Bioprospecting efforts focusing on the isolation and screening of actinobacteria from ocean habitats (25, 27) have added new biodiversity to the order Actinomycetales and revealed a range of novel natural products of pharmacological value. The existence of marine actinobacterial species physiologically and phylogenetically distinct from their terrestrial relatives is now widely accepted, and new taxonomic groups of marine actinomycetes have been described for at least six different families within the order Actinomycetales (12). Apart from being phylogenetically distinct from their terrestrial relatives, marine isolates have been shown to possess specific physiological adaptations (e.g., to high salinity/osmolarity and pressure) to their maritime surroundings and many were found to produce novel and chemically diverse secondary metabolites (10, 13, 35).Most streptomycetes and other filamentous actinomycetes possess numerous gene clusters for the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites (2, 32), and genome sequence studies have shown that large portions of their genomes are devoted to secondary metabolite biosynthesis. Twenty gene clusters coding for known or predicted secondary metabolites were identified in the 8.7-Mb genome of Streptomyces coelicolor A3(2) (2), and 6.4% of the 8.7-Mb genome of Streptomyces avermitilis is dedicated to gene clusters for secondary metabolite biosynthesis (32). The marine actinomycete Salinispora allocates nearly 10% of its 5.2-Mb genome to 17 diverse biosynthetic loci, including polyketide synthases (PKSs), nonribosomal peptide synthetases (NRPSs), and several hybrid clusters (4, 43). Many medicinally important natural products, including antibacterials and antifungals, are synthesized by these multimodular assembly lines (14), and genome mining for secondary metabolite gene clusters has become a common tool to assess the genetic capability of bacteria to produce novel bioactive compounds. However, even for well-studied model antibiotic producers like S. coelicolor A3(2), discrepancies between the number of known metabolites on the one hand and the number of pathways identified from genomic data on the other hand are tremendous (2). These discrepancies can only be explained by the facts that most gene clusters for secondary metabolites are silenced under standard laboratory cultivation conditions and that an expression or upregulation of these pathways is only triggered in response to certain environmental signals. It has been shown that by cultivating bacteria under a range of conditions, it is possible to obtain products of many of these “orphan” biosynthetic pathways (4). Using the OSMAC (one strain-many compounds) approach, Bode et al. were able to isolate more than 100 compounds comprising 25 structural classes from only six microorganisms (4).In this study, marine sediment-derived actinomycete isolates were analyzed for the production of antimicrobial secondary metabolites by using microwell plate fermentations and a range of media and conditions. This approach led to the isolation of a new thiopeptide antibiotic, designated TP-1161, produced by a marine sediment-derived Nocardiopsis isolate. Here we report the isolation and structural and biological characterization of TP-1161.     

Abnormal Epidermal Keratinization in the repeated epilation mutant mouse

Repeated epilation (Er) is a radiation-induced, autosomal, incomplete dominant mutation in mice which is expressed in heterozygotes but is lethal in the homozygous condition. Many effects of the mutation occur in skin: the epidermis in Er/Er mice is adhesive (oral and nasal orifices fuse, limbs adhere to the body wall), hyperplastic, and fails to undergo terminal differentiation. Skin from fetal +/+, Er/+ and Er/Er mice at ages pre- and postkeratinization examined by light, scanning, and transmission electron microscopy showed marked abnormalities in tissue architecture, differentiation, and cell structure; light and dark basal epidermal cells were separated by wide intercellular spaces, joined by few desmosomes, and contained phagolysomes. The numbers of spinous, granular, and superficial layers were highly variable within any given region and among various regions of the body. In some areas, 2-8 layers of granular cells, containing large or diminutive keratohyalin granules, extended to the epidermal surface; in others, the granular layers were covered by several layers of partially keratinized or nonkeratinized cells. In rare instances, a single or small group of cornified cells was present among the granular layers but was not associated with the epidermal surface. Both the granular and nonkeratinized/partially keratinized upper epidermal layers Er/Er skin gave positive immunofluorescence with antiserum to the histidine-rich, basic protein, filaggrin. Proteins in epidermal extracts from +/+, Er/+ and Er/Er mice were separated and identified by radio- and immunolabeling techniques. The Er/Er extract was missing a 26.5- kdalton protein and had an altered ratio of bands in the keratin region. The 26.5-kdalton band was histidine-rich and cross-reacted with the antiserum to rat filaggrin. Several high molecular weight bands present in both Er/Er and +/+ extracts also reacted with the antiserum. These are presumed to be the precursors of filaggrin and to account for the immunofluorescence om Er/Er epidermis even though the product protein is absent. The morphologic and biochemical data indicated that the genetic defect has a general and profound influence on epidermal differentiation, including alteration of two proteins (filaggrin and keratin) important in normal terminal differentiation, tissue architecture, and cytology. Identification of epidermal abnormalities at early stages of development (prekeratinization) and defective structure of other tissues and gross anatomy suggest that the mutation is responsible for a defect in same regulatory step important in many processes of differentiation and development.     

Structure of tetanus toxin. Demonstration and separation of a specific enzyme converting intracellular tetanus toxin to the extracellular form.

Protease activity has been demonstrated in culture supernatants of Clostridium tetani at various stages of fermentation. Gel chromatography of the concentrated filtrates revealed the presence of three enzymatically active fractions eluting at separate positions off the column. The smallest protease was found to "nick" the single chain intracellular tetanus toxin, producing the extracellular, two-chain structure of the molecule. As little as 3 ng of active protease were sufficient to cleave 50 microgram of intracellular tetanus toxin, suggesting that this enzyme is responsible for the observed structural change of the toxin molecule during its release into the culture medium. By comparison, the second protease, eluting at an intermediate position, exhibited only marginal activity towards intracellular toxin. The third, largest, enzyme was not active under the conditions of the assay. However, the latter protease effectively hydrolyzed low molecular weight histidyl peptides, and it is concluded that this enzyme is similar to the one described by Miller, P.A. Gray, C.T., and Eaton, M.D. (1960) J. Bacteriol. 79, 95-102. The properties of the partially purified enzymes, including their differential behavior towards a number of protease inhibitors, are reported.     

Developmental capacity of ferret embryos by nuclear transfer using G0/G1-phase fetal fibroblasts

With the ultimate goal of establishing experimental protocols necessary for cloning ferrets, the present study has established parameters for the reconstruction of ferret embryos by nuclear transfer (NT) using G0/G1-phase donor fetal fibroblasts. Cumulus-oocyte complexes were harvested from superovulated ferrets and cultured in maturation medium for 24 h. Matured oocytes were then enucleated and injected with the fibroblast nuclei derived from 14-16-h serum-starved cells. Reconstructed embryos were then activated by a combination of electric pulses and chemical stimulations. Subsequently, the reconstructed and activated embryos were either cultured in vitro or transferred to pseudopregnant ferrets to evaluate their developmental capacity in vitro and in vivo. Our results demonstrated that 56.3% of reconstructed embryos (n = 187) cleaved, while 26.0% and 17.6% developed to morula and blastocyst phases in vitro, respectively. The blastocysts derived from NT embryos demonstrated normal morphology by differentially staining as compared to normal blastocysts developed in vivo following fertilization. In vivo developmental studies at 21 days posttransplantation demonstrated 8.8% of reconstructed embryos (n = 91) implanted into the uterine lining of recipients, while 3.3% formed fetuses. However, reconstructed embryos (n = 387) failed to develop to term (42 days). These results demonstrate donor nuclei of G0/G1-phase fetal fibroblast cells can be reprogrammed to support the development of reconstructed ferret embryos in vitro and in vivo; however, a significant third-trimester block occurs preventing full-term development.