Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ebola Virus Disease at Sub-National Level during the 2014 West Africa Epidemic: Model Scrutiny and Data Meagreness

Background

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 27,443 individuals and killed 11,207, based on data until 24 June, 2015, released by the World Health Organization (WHO). This outbreak has been characterised by extensive geographic spread across the affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and by localized hotspots within these countries. The rapid recognition and quantitative assessment of localised areas of higher transmission can inform the optimal deployment of public health resources.

Methods

A variety of mathematical models have been used to estimate the evolution of this epidemic, and some have pointed out the importance of the spatial heterogeneity apparent from incidence maps. However, little is known about the district-level transmission. Given that many response decisions are taken at sub-national level, the current study aimed to investigate the spatial heterogeneity by using a different modelling framework, built on publicly available data at district level. Furthermore, we assessed whether this model could quantify the effect of intervention measures and provide predictions at a local level to guide public health action. We used a two-stage modelling approach: a) a flexible spatiotemporal growth model across all affected districts and b) a deterministic SEIR compartmental model per district whenever deemed appropriate.

Findings

Our estimates show substantial differences in the evolution of the outbreak in the various regions of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, illustrating the importance of monitoring the outbreak at district level. We also provide an estimate of the time-dependent district-specific effective reproduction number, as a quantitative measure to compare transmission between different districts and give input for informed decisions on control measures and resource allocation. Prediction and assessing the impact of control measures proved to be difficult without more accurate data. In conclusion, this study provides us a useful tool at district level for public health, and illustrates the importance of collecting and sharing data.     

Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health Services and Implications for the Provision of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Results of a Systematic Literature Review

Background

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is a critical HIV prevention tool. Since 2007, sub-Saharan African countries with the highest prevalence of HIV have been mobilizing resources to make VMMC available. While implementers initially targeted adult men, demand has been highest for boys under age 18. It is important to understand how male adolescents can best be served by quality VMMC services.

Methods and Findings

A systematic literature review was performed to synthesize the evidence on best practices in adolescent health service delivery specific to males in sub-Saharan Africa. PubMed, Scopus, and JSTOR databases were searched for literature published between January 1990 and March 2014. The review revealed a general absence of health services addressing the specific needs of male adolescents, resulting in knowledge gaps that could diminish the benefits of VMMC programming for this population. Articles focused specifically on VMMC contained little information on the adolescent subgroup. The review revealed barriers to and gaps in sexual and reproductive health and VMMC service provision to adolescents, including structural factors, imposed feelings of shame, endorsement of traditional gender roles, negative interactions with providers, violations of privacy, fear of pain associated with the VMMC procedure, and a desire for elements of traditional non-medical circumcision methods to be integrated into medical procedures. Factors linked to effective adolescent-focused services included the engagement of parents and the community, an adolescent-friendly service environment, and VMMC counseling messages sufficiently understood by young males.

Conclusions

VMMC presents an opportune time for early involvement of male adolescents in HIV prevention and sexual and reproductive health programming. However, more research is needed to determine how to align VMMC services with the unique needs of this population.     

Paucity of HPV-Related Head and Neck Cancers (HNC) in Nigeria

IntroductionThe burden of HPV-related Head and Neck Cancers (HNC) has been rising in the U.S. and other developed countries but this trend has not been reported in Africa. Objective of study was to evaluate the prevalence of HPV infection in HNC cancer cases seen between 1990 and 2011 at the tertiary health care institutions in Nigeria.MethodsWe retrieved 149 head and neck cancer formalin fixed, paraffin embedded tumor specimens diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 from four teaching hospitals in Nigeria. One hundred and twenty-three blocks (83%) contained appropriate HNC for analysis while DNA extraction was successful in 60% (90/149). PCR amplification was successful in 33% (49/149) and Linear Array genotyping for HPV was successful in 11% (17/149) of these cases. These were in tumors from the larynx (6), cervical lymph nodes (3), nasal cavity (2), parotid (1), palate (1), maxillary sinus (1) and mandible (1). Two cases were non-specific and none were from the oropharynx. Histologically, 41% (7/17) of the successfully genotyped blocks were squamous cell carcinomas (larynx 6, maxillary sinus 1).

Results and Conclusion

We were unable to detect HPV in any of the HNC samples in our study. Our result may suggest that there is a low prevalence of HPV-related HNC among the adult population in Nigeria. Our results provide a benchmark to compare future incidence of HPV -related HNC in this community in future. We had significant analytical challenges from possible poor tissue processing and urge that future studies should prospectively collect samples and ensure high quality sample processing.     

A comprehensive approach to the molecular determinants of lifespan using a Boolean model of geroconversion

Altered molecular responses to insulin and growth factors (GF) are responsible for late‐life shortening diseases such as type‐2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cancers. We have built a network of the signaling pathways that control S‐phase entry and a specific type of senescence called geroconversion. We have translated this network into a Boolean model to study possible cell phenotype outcomes under diverse molecular signaling conditions. In the context of insulin resistance, the model was able to reproduce the variations of the senescence level observed in tissues related to T2DM's main morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, by calibrating the pharmacodynamics of mTOR inhibitors, we have been able to reproduce the dose‐dependent effect of rapamycin on liver degeneration and lifespan expansion in wild‐type and HER2–neu mice. Using the model, we have finally performed an in silico prospective screen of the risk–benefit ratio of rapamycin dosage for healthy lifespan expansion strategies. We present here a comprehensive prognostic and predictive systems biology tool for human aging.     

Crop plants with improved culture and quality traits for food,feed and other uses

The large French research project GENIUS (2012–2019, https://www6.inra.genius-project_eng/) provides a good showcase of current genome editing techniques applied to crop plants. It addresses a large variety of agricultural species (rice, wheat, maize, tomato, potato, oilseed rape, poplar, apple and rose) together with some models (Arabidopsis, Brachypodium, Physcomitrella). Using targeted mutagenesis as its work horse, the project is limited to proof of concept under confined conditions. It mainly covers traits linked to crop culture, such as disease resistance to viruses and fungi, flowering time, plant architecture, tolerance to salinity and plant reproduction but also addresses traits improving the quality of agricultural products for industrial purposes. Examples include virus resistant tomato, early flowering apple and low-amylose starch potato. The wide range of traits illustrates the potential of genome editing towards a more sustainable agriculture through the reduction of pesticides and to the emergence of innovative bio-economy sectors based on custom tailored quality traits.