Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome

Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.     

Dog’s Discrimination of Human Selfish and Generous Attitudes: The Role of Individual Recognition,Experience, and Experimenters’ Gender

Discrimination of and memory for others’ generous and selfish behaviors could be adaptive abilities in social animals. Dogs have seemingly expressed such skills in both direct and indirect interactions with humans. However, recent studies suggest that their capacity may rely on cues other than people’s individual characteristics, such as the place where the person stands. Thus, the conditions under which dogs recognize individual humans when solving cooperative tasks still remains unclear. With the aim of contributing to this problem, we made dogs interact with two human experimenters, one generous (pointed towards the food, gave ostensive cues, and allowed the dog to eat it) and the other selfish (pointed towards the food, but ate it before the dog could have it). Then subjects could choose between them (studies 1-3). In study 1, dogs took several training trials to learn the discrimination between the generous and the selfish experimenters when both were of the same gender. In study 2, the discrimination was learned faster when the experimenters were of different gender as evidenced both by dogs’ latencies to approach the bowl in training trials as well as by their choices in preference tests. Nevertheless, dogs did not get confused by gender when the experimenters were changed in between the training and the choice phase in study 3. We conclude that dogs spontaneously used human gender as a cue to discriminate between more and less cooperative experimenters. They also relied on some other personal feature which let them avoid being confused by gender when demonstrators were changed. We discuss these results in terms of dogs’ ability to recognize individuals and the potential advantage of this skill for their lives in human environments.     

Mortality Prediction in the Oldest Old with Five Different Equations to Estimate Glomerular Filtration Rate: The Health and Anemia Population-based Study

Background

Kidney function declines considerably with age, but little is known about its clinical significance in the oldest-old.

Objectives

To study the association between reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated according to five equations with mortality in the oldest-old.

Design

Prospective population-based study.

Setting

Municipality of Biella, Piedmont, Italy.

Participants

700 subjects aged 85 and older participating in the “Health and Anemia” Study in 2007–2008.

Measurements

GFR was estimated using five creatinine-based equations: the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), MAYO Clinic, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Berlin Initiative Study-1 (BIS-1). Survival analysis was used to study mortality in subjects with reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73m²) compared to subjects with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73m².

Results

Prevalence of reduced GFR was 90.7% with the C-G, 48.1% with MDRD, 23.3% with MAYO, 53.6% with CKD-EPI and 84.4% with BIS-1. After adjustment for confounders, two-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with reduced eGFR using BIS-1 and C-G equations (adjusted HRs: 2.88 and 3.30, respectively). Five-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m² using MAYO, CKD-EPI and, in a graduated fashion in reduced eGFR categories, MDRD. After 5 years, oldest old with an eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73m² showed a significantly higher risk of death whichever equation was used (adjusted HRs between 2.04 and 2.70).

Conclusion

In the oldest old, prevalence of reduced eGFR varies noticeably depending on the equation used. In this population, risk of mortality was significantly higher for reduced GFR estimated with the BIS-1 and C-G equations over the short term. Though after five years the MDRD appeared on the whole a more consistent predictor, differences in mortality prediction among equations over the long term were less apparent. Noteworthy, subjects with a severely reduced GFR were consistently at higher risk of death regardless of the equation used to estimate GFR.     

Identification of Genes Transcriptionally Responsive to the Loss of MLL Fusions in MLL-Rearranged Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Introduction

MLL-rearranged acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in infants (<1 year) is characterized by high relapse rates and a dismal prognosis. To facilitate the discovery of novel therapeutic targets, we here searched for genes directly influenced by the repression of various MLL fusions.

Methods

For this, we performed gene expression profiling after siRNA-mediated repression of MLL-AF4, MLL-ENL, and AF4-MLL in MLL-rearranged ALL cell line models. The obtained results were compared with various already established gene signatures including those consisting of known MLL-AF4 target genes, or those associated with primary MLL-rearranged infant ALL samples.

Results

Genes that were down-regulated in response to the repression of MLL-AF4 and MLL-ENL appeared characteristically expressed in primary MLL-rearranged infant ALL samples, and often represented known MLL-AF4 targets genes. Genes that were up-regulated in response to the repression of MLL-AF4 and MLL-ENL often represented genes typically silenced by promoter hypermethylation in MLL-rearranged infant ALL. Genes that were affected in response to the repression of AF4-MLL showed significant enrichment in gene expression profiles associated with AF4-MLL expressing t(4;11)+ infant ALL patient samples.

Conclusion

We conclude that the here identified genes readily responsive to the loss of MLL fusion expression potentially represent attractive therapeutic targets and may provide additional insights in MLL-rearranged acute leukemias.     

The Effects of 1α, 25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 and Transforming Growth Factor-β3 on Bone Development in an Ex Vivo Organotypic Culture System of Embryonic Chick Femora

Transforming growth factor-beta3 (TGF-β3) and 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D₃ (1α,25 (OH) ₂D₃) are essential factors in chondrogenesis and osteogenesis respectively. These factors also play a fundamental role in the developmental processes and the maintenance of skeletal integrity, but their respective direct effects on these processes are not fully understood. Using an organotypic bone rudiment culture system the current study has examined the direct roles the osteotropic factors 1α,25 (OH)₂D₃ and TGF-β3 exert on the development and modulation of the three dimensional structure of the embryonic femur. Isolated embryonic chick femurs (E11) were organotypically cultured for 10 days in basal media, or basal media supplemented with either 1α,25 (OH) ₂D₃ (25 nM) or TGF-β3 (5 ng/mL & 15 ng/mL). Analyses of the femurs were undertaken using micro-computed tomography (μCT), histology and immunohistochemistry. 1α,25 (OH)2D3 supplemented cultures enhanced osteogenesis directly in the developing femurs with elevated levels of osteogenic markers such as type 1 collagen. In marked contrast organotypic femur cultures supplemented with TGF-β3 (5 ng/mL & 15 ng/mL) demonstrated enhanced chondrogenesis with a reduction in osteogenesis. These studies demonstrate the efficacy of the ex vivo organotypic embryonic femur culture employed to elucidate the direct roles of these molecules, 1α,25 (OH) ₂D₃ and TGF-β3 on the structural development of embryonic bone within a three dimensional framework. We conclude that 1α,25(OH)₂D and TGF-β3 modify directly the various cell populations in bone rudiment organotypic cultures effecting tissue metabolism resulting in significant changes in embryonic bone growth and modulation. Understanding the roles of osteotropic agents in the process of skeletal development is integral to developing new strategies for the recapitulation of bone tissue in later life.     

Improving Child Oral Health: Cost Analysis of a National Nursery Toothbrushing Programme

Dental caries is one of the most common diseases of childhood. The aim of this study was to compare the cost of providing the Scotland-wide nursery toothbrushing programme with associated National Health Service (NHS) cost savings from improvements in the dental health of five-year-old children: through avoided dental extractions, fillings and potential treatments for decay.

Methods

Estimated costs of the nursery toothbrushing programme in 2011/12 were requested from all Scottish Health Boards. Unit costs of a filled, extracted and decayed primary tooth were calculated using verifiable sources of information. Total costs associated with dental treatments were estimated for the period from 1999/00 to 2009/10. These costs were based on the unit costs above and using the data of the National Dental Inspection Programme and then extrapolated to the population level. Expected cost savings were calculated for each of the subsequent years in comparison with the 2001/02 dental treatment costs. Population standardised analysis of hypothetical cohorts of 1000 children per deprivation category was performed.

Results

The estimated cost of the nursery toothbrushing programme in Scotland was £1,762,621 per year. The estimated cost of dental treatments in the baseline year 2001/02 was £8,766,297, while in 2009/10 it was £4,035,200. In 2002/03 the costs of dental treatments increased by £213,380 (2.4%). In the following years the costs decreased dramatically with the estimated annual savings ranging from £1,217,255 in 2003/04 (13.9% of costs in 2001/02) to £4,731,097 in 2009/10 (54.0%). Population standardised analysis by deprivation groups showed that the largest decrease in modelled costs was for the most deprived cohort of children.

Conclusions

The NHS costs associated with the dental treatments for five-year-old children decreased over time. In the eighth year of the toothbrushing programme the expected savings were more than two and a half times the costs of the programme implementation.     

A Simulation Study Comparing Epidemic Dynamics on Exponential Random Graph and Edge-Triangle Configuration Type Contact Network Models

We compare two broad types of empirically grounded random network models in terms of their abilities to capture both network features and simulated Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics. The types of network models are exponential random graph models (ERGMs) and extensions of the configuration model. We use three kinds of empirical contact networks, chosen to provide both variety and realistic patterns of human contact: a highly clustered network, a bipartite network and a snowball sampled network of a “hidden population”. In the case of the snowball sampled network we present a novel method for fitting an edge-triangle model. In our results, ERGMs consistently capture clustering as well or better than configuration-type models, but the latter models better capture the node degree distribution. Despite the additional computational requirements to fit ERGMs to empirical networks, the use of ERGMs provides only a slight improvement in the ability of the models to recreate epidemic features of the empirical network in simulated SIR epidemics. Generally, SIR epidemic results from using configuration-type models fall between those from a random network model (i.e., an Erdős-Rényi model) and an ERGM. The addition of subgraphs of size four to edge-triangle type models does improve agreement with the empirical network for smaller densities in clustered networks. Additional subgraphs do not make a noticeable difference in our example, although we would expect the ability to model cliques to be helpful for contact networks exhibiting household structure.