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Risk is by no means a simple concept. Natural variability and definitional problems with the concept of probability complicate the measurement and use of risk as an analytical tool. Variability requires that risk assessment methods separate natural from total risk when attempting to estimate anthropogenic risk. Failure to do so results in the over estimation of anthropogenic risk and the eventual loss of credibility for risk assessment methodologies. The common frequentist approach to probability is not consistent with anything but a modelling approach to risk assessment. When combined with its ability to account for natural variability, incorporate laboratory-assay data and offer complete statistical and experimental control, modelling is a promising approach to risk assessment. Modelling, however, is not without its drawbacks. Initialization bias can result in the over, or under, estimation of both natural and anthropogenic risk. Furthermore, model estimates are time dependent. The convergence of natural and anthropogenic risk poses problems for modelling-based risk assessment and requires clear statements as to the importance of the time dimension in risk assessment. When combined, the drawbacks to modelling-based risk assessment argue that risk should never be stated as a scalar quantity. Instead, modelling-based risk assessment should provide estimates of the complete range of risk measures (total, natural, and anthropogenic) as well as indications of convergence time. Only then can the modelling-based approach be viewed as the most appropriate means of carrying out scientifically credible risk assessment.  相似文献   
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We have used in vitro DNA replication systems from human HeLa cells and monkey CV-1 cells to replicate a UV-damaged simian virus 40-based shuttle vector plasmid, pZ189. We found that replication of the plasmid was inhibited in a UV fluence-dependent manner, but even at UV fluences which caused damage to essentially all of the plasmid molecules some molecules became completely replicated. This replication was accompanied by an increase (up to 15-fold) in the frequency of mutations detected in the supF gene of the plasmid. These mutations were predominantly G:C-->A:T transitions similar to those observed in vivo. Treatment of the UV-irradiated plasmid DNA with Escherichia coli photolyase to reverse pyrimidine cyclobutane dimers (the predominant UV-induced photoproduct) before replication prevented the UV-induced inhibition of replication and reduced the frequency of mutations in supF to background levels. Therefore, the presence of pyrimidine cyclobutane dimers in the plasmid template appears to be responsible for both inhibition of replication and mutation induction. Further analysis of the replication of the UV-damaged plasmid revealed that closed circular replication products were sensitive to T4 endonuclease V (a pyrimidine cyclobutane dimer-specific endonuclease) and that this sensitivity was abolished by treatment of the replicated DNA with E. coli photolyase after replication but before T4 endonuclease treatment. These results demonstrate that these closed circular replication products contain pyrimidine cyclobutane dimers. Density labeling experiments revealed that the majority of plasmid DNA synthesized in vitro in the presence of bromodeoxyuridine triphosphate was hybrid density whether or not the plasmid was treated with UV radiation before replication; therefore, replication of UV-damaged templates appears to occur by the normal semiconservative mechanism. All of these data suggest that replication of UV-damaged templates occurs in vitro as it does in vivo and that this replication results in mutation fixation.  相似文献   
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Ten isolates of six species of ectomycorrhizal fungi were grown in vitro at nine concentrations of three sodium salts (NaCl, Na2SO4, Na3C6H5O7) for 4 weeks. Colony diamater, biomass and protein content of fungi were evaluated. Isolates of Pisolithus tinctorius and Suillus luteus were more tolerant of NaCl and Na2SO4 than of Na3C6H5O7. Fungi in the genera Cenococcum, Laccaria, and Thelephora were highly intolerant of Na3C6H5O7 and Na2SO4 in vitro. Biomass and protein content of fungi generally declined with increasing substrate salinity in solution culture. In situ ectomycorrhizal colonization by Laccara laccata and P. tinctorius and the dry weight of Pinus taeda seedlings were significantly reduced by 80 mM NaCl after 14 weeks. Only select ectomycorrhizal fungi appear capable of growth and symbiosis in saline soils.  相似文献   
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Abstract. Cell proliferation and cell death in mouse epidermis are altered by topical application of benzo[ a ]pyrene (BaP), a procarcinogen, which yields metabolites that can form DNA adducts. The mitotic rate, nuclear abnormalities, labelling index, grain density, necrosis and apoptosis were compared in the epidermis of TSG- p53 null ( p53 -/-) and C57BL wild-type (wt) mice after weekly treatments with BaP to determine whether the absence of the p53 gene altered cytokinetic responses to DNA damaging agents in vivo . Acetone alone or 64 μg BaP in 50 μl acetone was applied to the clipped dorsum of mice once, or in four consecutive weekly treatments. Indices of cell proliferation and cell death were the same in both wt and p53 -/- mice treated only with acetone. One application of BaP depressed mitosis and slowed the rate of DNA synthesis in both genotypes. After four applications of BaP the number of keratinocytes in S phase increased substantially, while there was no further slowing in the rate of S phase in the wt and p53 -/- mice. Cell proliferation rates and numbers of cells with nuclear abnormalities were higher and there were fewer apoptotic cells and apoptotic bodies in the p53 -/- mice than in the wt mice. Numbers of 'sunburn'cells were similar in both types.  相似文献   
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Exposure of dormant seed to cold smoke derived from burnt native vegetation had a positive influence on germination in one or more seed provenances in 45 out of 94 species of native Western Australian plants that are normally hard to germinate. When tested under controlled conditions some species showed earlier germination in smoke treatments than controls; in others smoke-treated seeds continued to germinate for several weeks after controls had achieved full germination. In the remainder, treated and control seeds germinated to similar time schedules. A group of 23 species which responded positively had previously been recorded as extremely difficult or impossible to germinate using conventional techniques. These included members of the genera Geleznowia (Rutaceae), Hibbertia (Dilleniaceae), Stirlingia (Proteaceae), Verticordia (Myrtaceae), Actinostrobus (Cupressaceae) and Pimelea (Thymelaeaceae). Both large- and small-seeded species were encountered amongst the positively responding taxa, which encompassed representatives of 15 families and 26 genera of dicotyledons, 5 families and 8 genera of monocotyledons and the gymnosperm Actinostrobus acuminatus. Sowing seeds on smoke-fumigated filter papers or watering with aqueous eluates of smoke elicited similar degrees of stimulation of germination, as did exposure to gaseous smoke in a readily germinating species Anigozanthos manglesii (Haemodoraceae) and the normally intractable species Lysinema ciliatum (Epacridaceae). Exposing recently burnt and unburnt natural bushland sites to smoke, smoked water or smoked dry sand elicited a significant germination response in 15 species. Over one third of the species sampled in the burnt site exhibited germination additional to that caused by the fire. Data are discussed in relation to previous germination studies on Australian and other taxa.  相似文献   
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