A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting

Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area.     

Omega-3 Eicosapentaenoic Acid Decreases CD133 Colon Cancer Stem-Like Cell Marker Expression While Increasing Sensitivity to Chemotherapy

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related death in the western world. In vitro and in vivo experiments showed that omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFAs) can attenuate the proliferation of cancer cells, including colon cancer, and increase the efficacy of various anticancer drugs. However, these studies address the effects of n-3 PUFAs on the bulk of the tumor cells and not on the undifferentiated colon cancer stem-like cells (CSLCs) that are responsible for tumor formation and maintenance. CSLCs have also been linked to the acquisition of chemotherapy resistance and to tumor relapse. Colon CSLCs have been immunophenotyped using several antibodies against cellular markers including CD133, CD44, EpCAM, and ALDH. Anti-CD133 has been used to isolate a population of colon cancer cells that retains stem cells properties (CSLCs) from both established cell lines and primary cell cultures. We demonstrated that the n-3 PUFA, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), was actively incorporated into the membrane lipids of COLO 320 DM cells. 25 uM EPA decreased the cell number of the overall population of cancer cells, but not of the CD133 (+) CSLCs. Also, we observed that EPA induced down-regulation of CD133 expression and up-regulation of colonic epithelium differentiation markers, Cytokeratin 20 (CK20) and Mucin 2 (MUC2). Finally, we demonstrated that EPA increased the sensitivity of COLO 320 DM cells (total population) to both standard-of-care chemotherapies (5-Fluorouracil and oxaliplatin), whereas EPA increased the sensitivity of the CD133 (+) CSLCs to only 5-Fluorouracil.     

Reduced Crowding and Poor Contour Detection in Schizophrenia Are Consistent with Weak Surround Inhibition

Background

Detection of visual contours (strings of small oriented elements) is markedly poor in schizophrenia. This has previously been attributed to an inability to group local information across space into a global percept. Here, we show that this failure actually originates from a combination of poor encoding of local orientation and abnormal processing of visual context.

Methods

We measured the ability of observers with schizophrenia to localise contours embedded in backgrounds of differently oriented elements (either randomly oriented, near-parallel or near-perpendicular to the contour). In addition, we measured patients’ ability to process local orientation information (i.e., report the orientation of an individual element) for both isolated and crowded elements (i.e., presented with nearby distractors).

Results

While patients are poor at detecting contours amongst randomly oriented elements, they are proportionally less disrupted (compared to unaffected controls) when contour and surrounding elements have similar orientations (near-parallel condition). In addition, patients are poor at reporting the orientation of an individual element but, again, are less prone to interference from nearby distractors, a phenomenon known as visual crowding.

Conclusions

We suggest that patients’ poor performance at contour perception arises not as a consequence of an “integration deficit” but from a combination of reduced sensitivity to local orientation and abnormalities in contextual processing. We propose that this is a consequence of abnormal gain control, a phenomenon that has been implicated in orientation-selectivity as well as surround suppression.     

A Luminex Assay Detects Amyloid β Oligomers in Alzheimer’s Disease Cerebrospinal Fluid

Amyloid beta (aβ) protein assembles into larger protein aggregates during the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and there is increasing evidence that soluble aβ oligomers are a critical pathologic species. Diagnostic evaluations rely on the measurement of increased tau and decreased aβ42 in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from AD patients and evidence for oligomeric aβ in patient CSF is conflicting. In this study, we have adapted a monoclonal single antibody sandwich ELISA assay to a Luminex platform and found that this assay can detect oligomerized aβ42 and sAPPα fragments. We evaluated oligomeric aβ reactivity in 20 patients with AD relative to 19 age matched controls and compared these values with a commercially available Alzbio3 kit that detects tau, phosphorylated tau and aβ42 on the same diagnostic platform. We found that CSF samples of patients with AD had elevated aβ oligomers compared to control subjects (p < 0.05) and the ratio of aβ oligomers to aβ42 was also significantly elevated (p < 0.0001). Further research to develop high sensitivity analytical platforms and rigorous methods of developing stable assay standards will be needed before the analysis of oligomeric aβ becomes a routine diagnostic assay for the evaluation of late onset AD patients.     

Increased Production of IL-4 and IL-12p40 from Bronchoalveolar Lavage Cells Are Biomarkers of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the Sputum

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) causes 1.45 million deaths annually world wide, the majority of which occur in the developing world. Active TB disease represents immune failure to control latent infection from airborne spread. Acid-fast bacillus (AFB) seen on sputum smear is a biomarker for contagiousness.

Methods

We enrolled 73 tuberculosis patients with extensive infiltrates into a research study using bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) to sample lung immune cells and assay BAL cell cytokine production. All patients had sputum culture demonstrating Mycobacterium tuberculosis and 59/73 (81%) had AFB identified by microscopy of the sputum. Compared with smear negative patients, smear positive patients at presentation had a higher proportion with smoking history, a higher proportion with temperature >38.5⁰ C, higher BAL cells/ml, lower percent lymphocytes in BAL, higher IL-4 and IL-12p40 in BAL cell supernatants. There was no correlation between AFB smear and other BAL or serum cytokines. Increasing IL-4 was associated with BAL PMN and negatively associated with BAL lymphocytes. Each 10-fold increase in BAL IL-4 and IL-12p40 increased the odds of AFB smear positivity by 7.4 and 2.2-fold, respectively, in a multi-variable logistic model.

Conclusion

Increasing IL-4 and IL-12p40 production by BAL cells are biomarkers for AFB in sputum of patients who present with radiographically advanced TB. They likely reflect less effective immune control of pathways for controlling TB, leading to patients with increased infectiousness.     

Neonatal environment exerts a sustained influence on the development of the intestinal microbiota and metabolic phenotype

The postnatal environment, including factors such as weaning and acquisition of the gut microbiota, has been causally linked to the development of later immunological diseases such as allergy and autoimmunity, and has also been associated with a predisposition to metabolic disorders. We show that the very early-life environment influences the development of both the gut microbiota and host metabolic phenotype in a porcine model of human infants. Farm piglets were nursed by their mothers for 1 day, before removal to highly controlled, individual isolators where they received formula milk until weaning at 21 days. The experiment was repeated, to create two batches, which differed only in minor environmental fluctuations during the first day. At day 1 after birth, metabolic profiling of serum by ¹H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy demonstrated significant, systemic, inter-batch variation which persisted until weaning. However, the urinary metabolic profiles demonstrated that significant inter-batch effects on 3-hydroxyisovalerate, trimethylamine-N-oxide and mannitol persisted beyond weaning to at least 35 days. Batch effects were linked to significant differences in the composition of colonic microbiota at 35 days, determined by 16 S pyrosequencing. Different weaning diets modulated both the microbiota and metabolic phenotype independently of the persistent batch effects. We demonstrate that the environment during the first day of life influences development of the microbiota and metabolic phenotype and thus should be taken into account when interrogating experimental outcomes. In addition, we suggest that intervention at this early time could provide ‘metabolic rescue'' for at-risk infants who have undergone aberrant patterns of initial intestinal colonisation.     

HPV Serology Testing Confirms High HPV Immunisation Coverage in England

Background

Reported human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in England is high, particularly in girls offered routine immunisation at age 12 years. Serological surveillance can be used to validate reported coverage and explore variations within it and changes in serological markers over time.

Methods

Residual serum specimens collected from females aged 15–19 years in 2010–2011 were tested for anti-HPV16 and HPV18 IgG by ELISA. Based on these results, females were classified as follows: seronegative, probable natural infection, probable vaccine-induced seropositivity, or possible natural infection/possible vaccine-induced seropositivity. The proportion of females with vaccine-induced seropositivity was compared to the reported vaccination coverage.

Results

Of 2146 specimens tested, 1380 (64%) were seropositive for both types HPV16 and HPV18 and 159 (7.4%) positive for only one HPV type. The IgG concentrations were far higher for those positive for both HPV types than those positive for only one HPV type. 1320 (62%) females were considered to have probable vaccine-induced seropositivity. Among vaccine-induced seropositives, antibody concentrations declined with increasing age at vaccination and increasing time since vaccination.

Conclusions

The proportion of females with vaccine-induced seropositivity was closest to the reported 3-dose coverage in those offered the vaccination at younger ages, with a greater discrepancy in the older females. This suggests either some under-reporting of immunisations of older females and/or that partial vaccination (i.e. one- or two-doses) has provided high antibody responses in 13–17 year olds.     

The Possible Role of Staphylococcus epidermidis LPxTG Surface Protein SesC in Biofilm Formation

Staphylococcus epidermidis is the most common cause of device-associated infections. It has been shown that active and passive immunization in an animal model against protein SesC significantly reduces S. epidermidis biofilm-associated infections. In order to elucidate its role, knock-out of sesC or isolation of S. epidermidis sesC-negative mutants were attempted, however, without success. As an alternative strategy, sesC was introduced into Staphylococcus aureus 8325–4 and its isogenic icaADBC and srtA mutants, into the clinical methicillin-sensitive S. aureus isolate MSSA4 and the MRSA S. aureus isolate BH1CC, which all lack sesC. Transformation of these strains with sesC i) changed the biofilm phenotype of strains 8325–4 and MSSA4 from PIA-dependent to proteinaceous even though PIA synthesis was not affected, ii) converted the non-biofilm-forming strain 8325–4 ica::tet to a proteinaceous biofilm-forming strain, iii) impaired PIA-dependent biofilm formation by 8325–4 srtA::tet, iv) had no impact on protein-mediated biofilm formation of BH1CC and v) increased in vivo catheter and organ colonization by strain 8325–4. Furthermore, treatment with anti-SesC antibodies significantly reduced in vitro biofilm formation and in vivo colonization by these transformants expressing sesC. These findings strongly suggest that SesC is involved in S. epidermidis attachment to and subsequent biofilm formation on a substrate.