Characterizing the Transmission Potential of Zoonotic Infections from Minor Outbreaks

The transmission potential of a novel infection depends on both the inherent transmissibility of a pathogen, and the level of susceptibility in the host population. However, distinguishing between these pathogen- and population-specific properties typically requires detailed serological studies, which are rarely available in the early stages of an outbreak. Using a simple transmission model that incorporates age-stratified social mixing patterns, we present a novel method for characterizing the transmission potential of subcritical infections, which have effective reproduction number R<1, from readily available data on the size of outbreaks. We show that the model can identify the extent to which outbreaks are driven by inherent pathogen transmissibility and pre-existing population immunity, and can generate unbiased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Applying the method to real-life infections, we obtained accurate estimates for the degree of age-specific immunity against monkeypox, influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9), and refined existing estimates of the reproduction number. Our results also suggest minimal pre-existing immunity to MERS-CoV in humans. The approach we describe can therefore provide crucial information about novel infections before serological surveys and other detailed analyses are available. The methods would also be applicable to data stratified by factors such as profession or location, which would make it possible to measure the transmission potential of emerging infections in a wide range of settings.     

Rational design of 6-(2,4-diaminopyrimidinyl)-1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones as small molecule renin inhibitors

We report the design and synthesis of a series of 6-(2,4-diaminopyrimidinyl)-1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones as orally bioavailable small molecule inhibitors of renin. Compounds with a 2-methyl-2-aryl substitution pattern exhibit potent renin inhibition and good permeability, solubility, and metabolic stability. Oral bioavailability was found to be dependent on metabolic clearance and cellular permeability, and was optimized through modulation of the sidechain that binds in the S3(sp) subsite.     

Consequences of fission in the coral <Emphasis Type="Italic">Siderastrea siderea</Emphasis>: growth rates of small colonies and clonal input to population structure

Colony age and size can be poorly related in scleractinian corals if colonies undergo fission to form smaller independent patches of living tissue (i.e., ramets), but the implications of this life-history characteristic are unclear. This study explored the ecological consequences of the potential discrepancy between size and age for a massive scleractinian, first by testing the effect of colony origin on the growth of small colonies, and second by quantifying the contribution of ramets to population structure. Using Siderastrea siderea in St. John (US Virgin Islands) as an experimental system, the analyses demonstrated that the growth of small colonies derived from sexual reproduction was 2.5-fold greater than that of small ramets which were estimated to be ≈100 years older based on the age of the parent colonies from which they split. Although fission can generate discrete colonies, which in the case of the study reef accounted for 42% of all colonies, it may depress colony success and reef accretion through lowered colony growth rates.     

Quantile regression estimates of animal population trends

Ecologists often estimate population trends of animals in time series of counts using linear regression to estimate parameters in a linear transformation of multiplicative growth models, where logarithms of rates of change in counts in time intervals are used as response variables. We present quantile regression estimates for the median (0.50) and interquartile (0.25, 0.75) relationships as an alternative to mean regression estimates for common density-dependent and density-independent population growth models. We demonstrate that the quantile regression estimates are more robust to outliers and require fewer distributional assumptions than conventional mean regression estimates and can provide information on heterogeneous rates of change ignored by mean regression. We provide quantile regression trend estimates for 2 populations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, and for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) in southwestern Colorado, USA. Our selected Gompertz models of density dependence for both populations of greater sage-grouse had smaller negative estimates of density-dependence terms and less variation in corresponding predicted growth rates (λ) for quantile than mean regression models. In contrast, our selected Gompertz models of density dependence with piecewise linear effects of years for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse had predicted changes in λ across years from quantile regressions that varied more than those from mean regression because of heterogeneity in estimated λs that were both less and greater than mean estimates. Our results add to literature establishing that quantile regression provides better behaved estimates than mean regression when there are outlying growth rates, including those induced by adjustments for zeros in the time series of counts. The 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles bracketing the median provide robust estimates of population changes (λ) for the central 50% of time series data and provide a 50% prediction interval for a single new prediction without making parametric distributional assumptions or assuming homogeneous λs. Compared to mean estimates, our quantile regression trend estimates for greater sage-grouse indicated less variation in density-dependent λs by minimizing sensitivity to outlying values, and for Gunnison sage-grouse indicated greater variation in density-dependent λs associated with heterogeneity among quantiles.     

Strategies for Neoglycan conjugation to human acid α-glucosidase

Engineering proteins for selective tissue targeting can improve therapeutic efficacy and reduce undesired side effects. The relatively high dose of recombinant human acid α-glucosidase (rhGAA) required for enzyme replacement therapy of Pompe disease may be attributed to less than optimal muscle uptake via the cation-independent mannose 6-phosphate receptor (CI-MPR). To improve muscle targeting, Zhu et al. (1) conjugated periodate oxidized rhGAA with bis mannose 6-phosphate bearing synthetic glycans and achieved 5-fold greater potency in a murine Pompe efficacy model. In the current study, we systematically evaluated multiple strategies for conjugation based on a structural homology model of GAA. Glycan derivatives containing succinimide, hydrazide, and aminooxy linkers targeting free cysteine, lysines, and N-linked glycosylation sites on rhGAA were prepared and evaluated in vitro and in vivo. A novel conjugation method using enzymatic oxidation was developed to eliminate side oxidation of methionine. Conjugates derived from periodate oxidized rhGAA still displayed the greatest potency in the murine Pompe model. The efficiency of conjugation and its effect on catalytic activity were consistent with predictions based on the structural model and supported its use in guiding selection of appropriate chemistries.     

The effects of dietary phytoestrogens on aromatase activity in human endometrial stromal cells

Dietary phytoestrogens have been reported to inhibit aromatase activity in placental microsomes, but the effects in the human endometrium are unknown. Aromatase, the rate-limiting enzyme in the conversion of androgens to estrogens, has recently been shown to be expressed in the endometrium of women with endometriosis and is thought to play a role in the pathophysiology of this disease. Therefore, the objective of this study was to screen dietary phytoestrogens for their ability to inhibit aromatase activity in human endometrial stromal cells (ESC) and identify potential novel therapeutic agents for the treatment of endometriosis. The inhibition of aromatase activity by direct interaction with the dietary phytoestrogens genistein, daidzein, chrysin, and naringenin was tested in a cell free assay. Furthermore, test compound effects on aromatase activity in ESC cultures were also examined. Genistein and daidzein were inactive in the human recombinant aromatase assay whereas naringenin and chrysin inhibited aromatase activity. However, genistein (1 nM to 1 mM) stimulated aromatase activity in ESC whereas other phytoestrogens had no effect. Immunopositive aromatase cells were demonstrated in genistein-treated ESC but not in untreated control cultures. Taken together, our data suggest that genistein can increase aromatase activity in ESC likely via increased enzyme expression.     

DOES THE ABUNDANCE OF HOVERFLY (SYRPHIDAE) MIMICS DEPEND ON THE NUMBERS OF THEIR HYMENOPTERAN MODELS?

We tested the prediction that, if hoverflies are Batesian mimics, this may extend to behavioral mimicry such that their numerical abundance at each hour of the day (the daily activity pattern) is related to the numbers of their hymenopteran models. After accounting for site, season, microclimatic responses, and general hoverfly abundance at three sites in northwestern England, the residual numbers of mimics were significantly correlated positively with their models nine times of 17. Sixteen of 17 relationships were positive, itself a highly significant nonrandom pattern. Several eristaline flies showed significant relationships with honeybees even though some of them mimic wasps or bumblebees, perhaps reflecting an ancestral resemblance to honeybees. There was no evidence that good and poor mimics differed in their daily activity pattern relationships with models. However, the common mimics showed significant activity pattern relationships with their models, whereas the rarer mimics did not. We conclude that many hoverflies show behavioral mimicry of their hymenopteran models.