Otolith elemental signatures reflect residency in coastal water masses

We examined variability in otolith chemistry of wild caught fish in relation to in situ temperature and salinity within the California Current System. Barium, magnesium, and iron from the most recent growth zone in otoliths differentiated pelagic juvenile shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) residing in water masses with distinct temperature and salinity properties from central and southern California spanning nearly 500 km of coastline. The 3-element signature also discriminated fish that resided in different water masses that were associated with mesoscale cyclonic eddy circulation in the Santa Barbara Channel. Variability in otolith chemistry reflected the spatial patterns of both horizontal gradients and vertical gradients in water mass properties related to circulation. Although we found that the concentrations of particular elements in otoliths were correlated to ambient temperature or salinity, we suggest that these parameters are more useful as an identifying signature of distinct water masses associated with unique otolith signatures rather than as factors directly affecting otolith chemistry. Other factors varying among the water masses or among the fish populations residing in the water masses may also affect otolith chemistry. We discuss how oceanographic phenomena associated with the 1997–1998 El Niño and the persistent, recirculating eddy in the Channel may have affected coastal ocean conditions and variation in otolith chemistry of fish in the study area.     

Association between different growth curve definitions of overweight and obesity and cardiometabolic risk in children

Background:

Overweight and obesity in young people are assessed by comparing body mass index (BMI) with a reference population. However, two widely used reference standards, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) growth curves, have different definitions of overweight and obesity, thus affecting estimates of prevalence. We compared the associations between overweight and obesity as defined by each of these curves and the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors.

Methods:

We obtained data from a population-representative study involving 2466 boys and girls aged 9, 13 and 16 years in Quebec, Canada. We calculated BMI percentiles using the CDC and WHO growth curves and compared their abilities to detect unfavourable levels of fasting lipids, glucose and insulin, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure using receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivity, specificity and kappa coefficients.

Results:

The z scores for BMI using the WHO growth curves were higher than those using the CDC growth curves (0.35–0.43 v. 0.12–0.28, p < 0.001 for all comparisons). The WHO and CDC growth curves generated virtually identical receiver operating characteristic curves for individual or combined cardiometabolic risk factors. The definitions of overweight and obesity had low sensitivities but adequate specificities for cardiometabolic risk. Obesity as defined by the WHO or CDC growth curves discriminated cardiometabolic risk similarly, but overweight as defined by the WHO curves had marginally higher sensitivities (by 0.6%–8.6%) and lower specificities (by 2.6%–4.2%) than the CDC curves.

Interpretation:

The WHO growth curves show no significant discriminatory advantage over the CDC growth curves in detecting cardiometabolic abnormalities in children aged 9–16 years.Pediatric obesity is associated with dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and elevated blood pressure.^1–6 Thus, accurately identifying children with obesity is crucial for clinical management and public health surveillance.Lipid screening is recommended for young people who are overweight,^7,8 but studies show that estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity are 1%–7% lower using the growth curves of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) versus those of the World Health Organization (WHO).^9–11 Although the CDC and WHO definitions of overweight and obesity both use approximations of overweight and obese values of body mass index (BMI) when children reach 19 years of age, the CDC growth curves use data from more recent samples of young people.^12,13 Given the recent rise in the prevalence of obesity among young people, using a heavier reference population may lead to fewer children being identified as overweight and obese, and an identical BMI value may not trigger a clinical investigation.⁷ The Canadian Paediatric Society, in collaboration with the College of Family Physicians of Canada, Dietitians of Canada and Community Health Nurses of Canada, recently recommended that physicians switch from the CDC to the WHO growth curves for monitoring growth for Canadian children aged 5–19 years.¹⁴ This is a major change for health providers caring for the estimated 8 million children in Canada.¹⁵Understanding how using the different growth curves affects the identification of adverse cardiometabolic risk profiles is essential for the appropriate management of overweight and obesity among young people. Thus, our objectives were to assess whether the association between BMI percentiles and cardiometabolic risk differs between the definitions of overweight and obesity based on the WHO and CDC growth curves, and to compare the sensitivity and specificity of these definitions in detecting cardiometabolic risk.     

Shift in diversification in sister-clade comparisons: a more powerful test

Tests of shift in diversification associated with key innovations or directional environmental change can be performed with sister-clade comparisons. This approach is attractive because it does not require detailed phylogenetic information. I propose a new likelihood ratio test based on fitting two models of diversification. I show how this test differs from a previous likelihood ratio test based on the geometric distribution. With simulations from a wide range of situations, I show that the new test performs much better than this test and the traditional test by Slowinski and Guyer. The proposed test performs at least as well as the species richness contrast test that has been proposed by several authors in four versions. A power analysis with low number of pairs of sister clades showed that the new test could detect a shift in diversification with five or less pairs of sister clades, whereas the diversity contrast test cannot detect any shift in this situation. The former appears as more powerful than the latter, and therefore is recommended when the number of pairs of sister clades is low (less than 10). All other tests should not be used as the present study showed they lack statistical power and robustness.     

Asymmetries in phylogenetic diversification and character change can be untangled

The analysis of diversification and character evolution using phylogenetic data attracts increasing interest from biologists. Recent statistical developments have resulted in a variety of tools for the inference of macroevolutionary processes in a phylogenetic context. In a recent paper Maddison (2006 Evolution, 60: 1743-1746) pointed out that uncareful use of some of these tools could lead to misleading conclusions on diversification or character evolution, and thus to difficulties in distinguishing both phenomena. I here present guidelines for the analyses of macroevolutionary data that may help to avoid these problems. The proper use of recently developed statistical methods may help to untangle diversification and character change, and so will allow us to address important evolutionary questions.     

Exploring density-dependent relationships in demographic parameters in populations of birds at a large spatial scale

The importance of density-dependent processes in natural populations is widely accepted, but the issue of the shape of density-dependent relationships (such as influenced by vagueness, or time-delay) remains unresolved. We explored the density-dependent relationships in demographic parameters for 12 species of birds in Britain using large-scale, long-term data sets. We predicted that a negative relation between density and demographic parameters should be observed for the stable species, whereas the decreasing or increasing species should display a positive relation if the environment changes progressively through time bringing about a continuous change in density dependence. Our prediction was verified for nine species out of 12; however, we observed, for the three remaining species, a significant decrease of survival rates through time that seems to be involved in a long-term population decline. In all cases where a density-dependent relation was found, we observed an important variance around the relation. In one case, we showed that this variance increased significantly with density. We found evidence for time-delayed effects of density dependence both for survival and breeding performance. In two species, our results suggest the existence of complex interactions (compensatory mechanisms) between survival and breeding performance or between the different components of breeding performance.     

Time-dependent speciation and extinction from phylogenies: a least squares approach

Molecular phylogenies contribute to the study of the patterns and processes of macroevolution even though past events (fossils) are not recorded in these data. In this article, I consider the general time-dependent birth-death model to fit any model of temporal variation in speciation and extinction to phylogenies. I establish formulae to compute the expected cumulative distribution function of branching times for any model, and, building on previous published works, I derive maximum likelihood estimators. Some limitations of the likelihood approach are described, and a fitting procedure based on least squares is developed that alleviates the shortcomings of maximum likelihood in the present context. Parametric and nonparametric bootstrap procedures are developed to assess uncertainty in the parameter estimates, the latter version giving narrower confidence intervals and being faster to compute. I also present several general algorithms of tree simulation in continuous time. I illustrate the application of this approach with the analysis of simulated datasets, and two published phylogenies of primates (Catarrhinae) and lizards (Agamidae).     

Flavor aversion learning induced by lithium chloride in reptiles but not in amphibians

Flavor aversion learning occurs when digestive illness follows ingestion of a novel food. Such learning has been shown to exist in mammals and birds. In this experiment, we looked for flavor aversion learning in amphibians (Bufo paracnemis, Pachytriton breviceps) and reptiles (Basiliscus vitattus, B. basiliscus, Eumeces schneideri, Mabuya multifasciata). After intake of the novel food, the animals received i.p. injection of either lithium chloride (LiCl), an effective illness inducer, or a saline solution. A week later, the LiCl injection had not affected the food intake of the amphibians whereas in the lizards it had produced a strong aversion to the flavor of the novel food. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that specific mental capacities emerged with reptiles.