Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters

Background

Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.     

Isosteric ramatroban analogs: selective and potent CRTH-2 antagonists

The chemoattractant receptor-homologous molecule expressed on T(H)2 cells (CRTH-2), also found on eosinophils and basophils, is a prostaglandin D2 receptor involved in the recruitment of these cell types during an inflammatory response. In this report, we describe the synthesis and optimization of a ramatroban isostere that is a selective and potent antagonist of CRTH-2 which may be useful in the treatment of certain diseases.     

Origin and Diet of the Prehistoric Hunter-Gatherers on the Mediterranean Island of Favignana (ègadi Islands,Sicily)

Hunter-gatherers living in Europe during the transition from the late Pleistocene to the Holocene intensified food acquisition by broadening the range of resources exploited to include marine taxa. However, little is known on the nature of this dietary change in the Mediterranean Basin. A key area to investigate this issue is the archipelago of the Ègadi Islands, most of which were connected to Sicily until the early Holocene. The site of Grotta d’Oriente, on the present-day island of Favignana, was occupied by hunter-gatherers when Postglacial environmental changes were taking place (14,000-7,500 cal BP). Here we present the results of AMS radiocarbon dating, palaeogenetic and isotopic analyses undertaken on skeletal remains of the humans buried at Grotta d’Oriente. Analyses of the mitochondrial hypervariable first region of individual Oriente B, which belongs to the HV-1 haplogroup, suggest for the first time on genetic grounds that humans living in Sicily during the early Holocene could have originated from groups that migrated from the Italian Peninsula around the Last Glacial Maximum. Carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses show that the Upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic hunter-gatherers of Favignana consumed almost exclusively protein from terrestrial game and that there was only a slight increase in marine food consumption from the late Pleistocene to the early Holocene. This dietary change was similar in scale to that at sites on mainland Sicily and in the rest of the Mediterranean, suggesting that the hunter-gatherers of Grotta d’Oriente did not modify their subsistence strategies specifically to adapt to the progressive isolation of Favignana. The limited development of technologies for intensively exploiting marine resources was probably a consequence both of Mediterranean oligotrophy and of the small effective population size of these increasingly isolated human groups, which made innovation less likely and prevented transmission of fitness-enhancing adaptations.     

Midgut proteases from Mamestra configurata (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) larvae: characterization,cDNA cloning,and expressed sequence tag analysis

The activities of digestive protease within the midgut of Mamestra configurata (bertha armyworm) larvae were examined using specific substrates and protease inhibitors. The bulk of the activity was associated with serine proteases comprising trypsin-, chymotrypsin-, and elastase-like enzymes. At least 10-15 serine protease isozymes were detected using one-dimension gelatin gel electrophoresis. Cysteine or aspartic protease activities were not present; however, amino- and carboxypeptidase activities were associated with the midgut extract. Midgut proteases were active in the pH range of 5.0-12.0 with peaks at pH 7.5 and 11.0. In general, the middle region of the midgut exhibited a higher pH (approximately 8.0) than either the posterior or anterior regions (approximately 7.3-7.7). Moulting larvae possessed a neutral gut pH that was 0.5-1.5 units below that of feeding larvae. Degenerate PCR and expressed sequence tag (EST)-based approaches were used to isolate 30 distinct serine protease encoding cDNAs from a midgut-specific cDNA library including 8 putative trypsins, 9 chymotrypsins, 1 elastase, and 12 whose potential activities could not be determined. cDNAs encoding three amino- and two carboxypeptidases were also identified. Larvae feeding upon artificial diet containing 0.2% soybean trypsin inhibitor experienced a significant delay in development.     

Application of Multiplexed Kinase Inhibitor Beads to Study Kinome Adaptations in Drug-Resistant Leukemia

Protein kinases play key roles in oncogenic signaling and are a major focus in the development of targeted cancer therapies. Imatinib, a BCR-Abl tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is a successful front-line treatment for chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). However, resistance to imatinib may be acquired by BCR-Abl mutations or hyperactivation of Src family kinases such as Lyn. We have used multiplexed kinase inhibitor beads (MIBs) and quantitative mass spectrometry (MS) to compare kinase expression and activity in an imatinib-resistant (MYL-R) and -sensitive (MYL) cell model of CML. Using MIB/MS, expression and activity changes of over 150 kinases were quantitatively measured from various protein kinase families. Statistical analysis of experimental replicates assigned significance to 35 of these kinases, referred to as the MYL-R kinome profile. MIB/MS and immunoblotting confirmed the over-expression and activation of Lyn in MYL-R cells and identified additional kinases with increased (MEK, ERK, IKKα, PKCβ, NEK9) or decreased (Abl, Kit, JNK, ATM, Yes) abundance or activity. Inhibiting Lyn with dasatinib or by shRNA-mediated knockdown reduced the phosphorylation of MEK and IKKα. Because MYL-R cells showed elevated NF-κB signaling relative to MYL cells, as demonstrated by increased IκBα and IL-6 mRNA expression, we tested the effects of an IKK inhibitor (BAY 65-1942). MIB/MS and immunoblotting revealed that BAY 65-1942 increased MEK/ERK signaling and that this increase was prevented by co-treatment with a MEK inhibitor (AZD6244). Furthermore, the combined inhibition of MEK and IKKα resulted in reduced IL-6 mRNA expression, synergistic loss of cell viability and increased apoptosis. Thus, MIB/MS analysis identified MEK and IKKα as important downstream targets of Lyn, suggesting that co-targeting these kinases may provide a unique strategy to inhibit Lyn-dependent imatinib-resistant CML. These results demonstrate the utility of MIB/MS as a tool to identify dysregulated kinases and to interrogate kinome dynamics as cells respond to targeted kinase inhibition.     

Predatory Bacteria as Natural Modulators of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus in Seawater and Oysters

This study shows that naturally occurring Vibrio predatory bacteria (VPB) exert a major role in controlling pathogenic vibrios in seawater and shellfish. The growth and persistence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus were assessed in natural seawater and in the Eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica. The pathogens examined were V. vulnificus strain VV1003, V. parahaemolyticus O1:KUT (KUT stands for K untypeable), and V. parahaemolyticus O3:K6 and corresponding O3:K6 mutants deficient in the toxRS virulence regulatory gene or the rpoS alternative stress response sigma factor gene. Vibrios were selected for streptomycin resistance, which facilitated their enumeration. In natural seawater, oysters bioconcentrated each Vibrio strain for 24 h at 22°C; however, counts rapidly declined to near negligible levels by 72 h. In natural seawater with or without oysters, vibrios decreased more than 3 log units to near negligible levels within 72 h. Neither toxRS nor rpoS had a significant effect on Vibrio levels. In autoclaved seawater, V. parahaemolyticus O3:K6 counts increased 1,000-fold over 72 h. Failure of the vibrios to persist in natural seawater and oysters led to screening of the water samples for VPB on lawns of V. parahaemolyticus O3:K6 host cells. Many VPB, including Bdellovibrio and like organisms (BALOs; Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus and Bacteriovorax stolpii) and Micavibrio aeruginosavorus-like predators, were detected by plaque assay and electron microscopic analysis of plaque-purified isolates from Atlantic, Gulf Coast, and Hawaiian seawater. When V. parahaemolyticus O3:K6 was added to natural seawater containing trace amounts of VPB, Vibrio counts diminished 3 log units to nondetectable levels, while VPB increased 3 log units within 48 h. We propose a new paradigm that VPB are important modulators of pathogenic vibrios in seawater and oysters.     

Indirect minor histocompatibility antigen presentation by allograft recipient cells in the draining lymph node leads to the activation and clonal expansion of CD4+ T cells that cause obliterative airways disease

Ag recognition by OVA-reactive OT-II (I-Ab restricted) and DO11.10 (I-Ad restricted) TCR-Tg CD4+ T cells after heterotopic transplantation of OVA transgene-expressing tracheal grafts was examined as a model of minor histocompatibility Ag (mHAg)-induced chronic allograft rejection. In response to airway allotransplantation with grafts expressing the OVA transgene, these TCR-Tg CD4+ T cells expressed the activation markers CD69 and CD44, demonstrated evidence of blastogenesis, underwent multiple rounds of cell division leading to their clonal expansion in the draining lymph node, and proceeded to differentiate to a effector/memory T cell phenotype based on a reduction in the expression of CD45RB. These mHAg-specific TCR-Tg CD4+ T cells responded equally well to fully MHC-mismatched tracheas and to class II-deficient allografts, demonstrating that donor mHAg recognition by recipient CD4+ T cells does not rely on Ag presentation by donor-derived APC. The activation of mHAg-specific TCR-Tg CD4+ T cells after their adoptive transfer into recipient mice given MHC-matched, but mHAg-disparate, airway allografts was associated with their movement into the allograft and the near uniform destruction of the transplanted airway tissue secondary to the development of obliterative airways disease. These results demonstrate that an activation of mHAg-reactive CD4+ T cells in the draining lymph node by recipient APC that indirectly express graft mHAg-derived peptide/class II MHC complexes precedes responder T cell proliferation and differentiation, and leads to the eventual migration of these alloreactive T cells to the transplanted airway tissue and the promotion of chronic graft rejection.     

Conformational transitions in N-linked oligosaccharides

An assignment strategy involving 1H-1H correlated spectroscopy (COSY), relayed correlation spectroscopy (RECSY), nuclear Overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY), and triple quantum filtered correlated spectroscopy (TQCOSY) is described for six related N-linked oligosaccharides. These are of three "types", i.e., complex, bisected complex, and oligomannose. Using spin-spin coupling constant data derived from these assignments, together with semiempirical quantum mechanical energy calculations, we have examined the rotamer distributions at the Man alpha 1-6Man beta-linkage in each structure, and additionally at the Man alpha 1-6Man alpha-linkage in oligomannose oligosaccharides. We show that while several primary sequence differences are "passive", certain key residues modulate the orientation of the alpha 1-6 arms. These residues may be proximal or distal to the site of the conformational change. There is no direct correlation between these perturbations and the oligosaccharide type. These data are discussed in terms of the proposed recognition function of oligosaccharides in biological systems.     

Cranial Morphology of a Pantolestid Eutherian Mammal from the Eocene Bridger Formation,Wyoming, USA: Implications for Relationships and Habitat

Pantolestinae is a eutherian subfamily of mammals whose members are known from the middle early Paleocene through at least the beginning of the Oligocene of North America. They are also known from Europe, and possibly Africa. A lack of information on pantolestine skulls has prevented the use of cranial anatomy in evaluation of this group’s enigmatic higher-level phylogenetic relationships. Conversely, postcranial skeletons are well known and locomotor interpretations based on them are robust. The most complete known skull of a pantolestine, Pantolestes longicaudus (YPM 13525), is described here and compared to potential close fossil relatives and extant mammals. Semicircular canal morphology is used to test locomotor hypotheses. YPM 13525 lacks an ossified bulla. It has a mediolaterally broad basioccipital, a large entoglenoid process, and a deeply incised glaserian fissure of the squamosal, caudal and rostral tympanic processes on the petrosal, a foramen for an internal carotid artery (ICA) that entered the tympanic cavity from a posteromedial position, bony tubes enclosing the main stem and transpromontorial branch of the ICA, a large anterior carotid foramen formed within the basisphenoid, evidence of a stapedial artery ramus superior, a groove on the dorsal aspect of the basisphenoid leading to the piriform fenestra possibly for drainage of the cavernous sinus to an extracranial inferior petrosal sinus, a dorsum sellae with well-developed posterior clinoid processes, a foramen rotundum within the alisphenoid, and a sphenorbital fissure between the alisphenoid and orbitosphenoid. Overall, the morphology is not strikingly similar to any potential close relative and the phylogenetic position of Pantolestinae cannot be estimated without cladistic analysis of a character matrix that includes this new morphology and broadly samples extant and extinct eutherian taxa. Semicircular canal morphology differs from that of two likely terrestrial Paleocene mammals, Aphronorus (another pantolestid) and Eoryctes (a palaeoryctid), suggesting a different, possibly semi-aquatic, lifestyle for Pantolestes.