Epidemiological determinants of the pattern and magnitude of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain.

Understanding the epidemiology and aetiology of new-variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) disease in humans has become increasingly important given the scientific evidence linking it to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle and hence the wide exposure of the population of Great Britain (GB) to potentially infectious tissue. The recent analysis undertaken to determine the risk to the population from dorsal route ganglia illustrated the danger in presenting point estimates rather than ranges of scenarios in the face of uncertainty. We present a mathematical template that relates the past pattern of the BSE epidemic in cattle to the future course of any vCJD epidemic in humans, and use extensive scenario analysis to explore the wide range of possible outcomes given the uncertainty in epidemiological determinants. We demonstrate that the average number of humans infected by one infectious bovine and the incubation period distribution are the two epidemiological factors that have the greatest impact on epidemic size and duration. Using the time-series of the BSE epidemic and the cases seen to date, we show that the minimum length of the incubation period is approximately nine years, and that at least 20% of the cases diagnosed to date were exposed prior to 1986. We also demonstrate that the current age distribution of vCJD cases can only arise if younger people were either exposed to a greater extent, more susceptible to infection, or have shorter incubation periods. Extensive scenario analyses show that given the information currently available, the very high degree of uncertainty in the future size of the epidemic will remain for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this uncertainty is unlikely to be reduced by mass screening for late-stage infection.     

Energy metabolism in respiration-deficient and wild type Chinese hamster fibroblasts in culture.

This paper presents a comparison of energy metabolism in wild type and respiration-deficient Chinese hamster cells. From previous work (DeFrancesco et. al., '75) it was concluded that the mutant satisfies essentially all of its energy requirements from glycolysis and in this study we measure precisely the amount of glucose consumed and lactate produced per milligram increment of protein in exponentially growing cultures. From these measurements we calculate the amount of ATP derived from glycolysis (and hence the total energy requirement for normal proliferation) to be 105 +/- 15 mumoles ATP/delta mg protein in the mutant. It is 63 +/- 10 mumoles ATP/delta mg protein derived from glycolysis in wild type cells. We present evidence that the total energy requirement of wild type cells is similar to that of the mutant suggesting that approximately 40% of the energy requirement is derived from respiration. The oxidation of glutamine appears to be more significant than the complete oxidation of glucose to CO2 in these Chinese hamster fibroblasts. The amount of ATP required by the mutant cells per milligram increment of protein is relatively independent of pH.     

The Wright-Fisher model with temporally varying selection and population size

The Wright-Fisher model is considered in the case where the population size is random and the magnitude of the selective advantage of one of the alleles varies with time. The central question addressed is the possibility of ultimate genetic polymorphism. Partial results are obtained in the general case and complete results in the case where the population size and selective advantage are not density dependent. Bounds on the fixation probability are obtained when the selective advantage is constant.     

Dual processes and an invariance result for exchangeable models in population genetics

By means of a representation as interactive particle systems, dual processes are constructed for a large class of exchangeable models in population genetics. It is shown that as the population size becomes large these dual processes tend in distribution to a particularly tractable limiting dual process. Properties of the models are analyzed using the duality relationship and approximate expressions are obtained for various quantities. Diffusion approximations follow easily from the invariance result.     

Increase in nuclear cyclic GMP-dependent protein kinase following partial hepatectomy

The level of cyclic GMP-dependent protein kinase in the nucleus of rat liver was shown to increase 80% at 3 hr following partial hepatectomy while cyclic AMP-binding activity decreased 28%. Subnuclear fractionation demonstrated that the increase in cyclic GMP-dependent protein kinase was localized to the nucleolus and nucleoplasm, with no change in the extranucleolar particulate material. Cyclic AMP-binding activity was decreased in all subnuclear fractions under these conditions. At 16 hr following partial hepatectomy, the level of cyclic GMP-dependent protein kinase was not changed in the nucleolus but was significantly increased in the nucleoplasm, while cyclic AMP-binding activity was slightly increased in the nucleolus and decreased in the nucleoplasm.     

Do temperature and social environment interact to affect call rate in frogs (Crinia signifera)?

Abstract Acoustic displays are pervasive and conspicuous forms of sexual advertisement used by animals to attract mates. Evidence suggests that individuals may use environmental cues and/or the presence of other displaying animals to select the best times for display to optimize the chances of mating. Less well‐known is how the physical and social environment might interact to affect the actual content of the display itself. We examined the effects of social environment and temperature on calling rate in a frog Crinia signifera. We found that both variables interacted to affect call rate but only among continuous callers. Call rate increased with temperature in individuals calling continuously on their own but no relationship was found in frogs calling continuously in the presence of others, either in a duet or in a group calling situation. We suggest that the temperature sensitivity of calling rate in frogs could depend on the social environment of the caller. As such, we suggest caution in generalizing about the way temperature affects calling rates in frogs and encourage greater consideration of how physical and social environments might interact to influence the signal content of acoustic displays.     

SOME OBSERVATIONS ON BEHAVIOUR AND CALL IN THE PALM THRUSH CICHLADUSA ARQUATA

Boshoff, A. F. &; Vernon, C. J. 1980. The past and present distribution and status of the Cape Vulture in the Cape Province. Ostrich 51:230-250.

Because of the apparent decline in range and numbers of the Cape Vulture Gyps coprotheres in the Cape Province, the distribution and status of this species were reviewed according to four time periods from before 1905 to the present day. All available information was assembled, assessed and interpreted. It is apparent that, although the present decline is real, the population has undergone previous fluctuations. The magnitude, nature and possible causes of the fluctuations are discussed. It is postulated that the drastic decline in the game herds, particularly during the 19th century, together with the recent changes in stock farming, are the most important factors determining the numbers and distribution of Cape Vultures. Direct and indirect persecution also have a detrimental effect on vulture populations. Farmers' attitudes towards vultures are mentioned and conservation priorities and problems are listed.     

Oesophageal cancer survival in Europe: A EUROCARE-4 study

Oesophageal cancer survival is poor with variation across Europe. No pan-European studies of survival differences by oesophageal cancer subtype exist. This study investigates rates and trends in oesophageal cancer survival across Europe. Data for primary malignant oesophageal cancer diagnosed in 1995–1999 and followed up to the end of 2003 was obtained from 66 cancer registries in 24 European countries. Relative survival was calculated using the Hakulinen approach. Staging data were available from 19 registries. Survival by region, gender, age, morphology and stage was investigated. Cohort analysis and the period approach were applied to investigate survival trends from 1988 to 2002 for 31 registries in 17 countries. In total 51,499 cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995–1999 were analysed. Overall, European 1- and 5-year survival rates were 33.4% (95% CI 32.9–33.9%) and 9.8% (95% CI 9.4–10.1%), respectively. Males, older patients and patients with late stage disease had poorer 1- and 5-year relative survival. Patients with squamous cell carcinoma had poorer 1-year relative survival. Regional variation in survival was observed with Central Europe above and Eastern Europe below the European pool. Survival for distant stage disease was similar across Europe while survival rates for localised disease were below the European pool in Eastern and Southern Europe. Improvement in European 1-year relative survival was reported (p = 0.016). Oesophageal cancer survival was poor across Europe. Persistent regional variations in 1-year survival point to a need for a high resolution study of diagnostic and treatment practices of oesophageal cancer.