Spatiotemporal modeling of first and second wave outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Germany

The COVID-19 pandemic has kept the world in suspense for the past year. In most federal countries such as Germany, locally varying conditions demand for state- or county-level decisions to adapt to the disease dynamics. However, this requires a deep understanding of the mesoscale outbreak dynamics between microscale agent models and macroscale global models. Here, we use a reparameterized SIQRD network model that accounts for local political decisions to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the pandemic in Germany at county resolution. Our optimized model reproduces state-wise cumulative infections and deaths as reported by the Robert Koch Institute and predicts the development for individual counties at convincing accuracy during both waves in spring and fall of 2020. We demonstrate the dominating effect of local infection seeds and identify effective measures to attenuate the rapid spread. Our model has great potential to support decision makers on a state and community politics level to individually strategize their best way forward during the months to come.

     

The mutational dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in serial passages in vitro

Since its outbreak in 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) keeps surprising the medical community by evolving diverse immune escape mutations in a rapid and effective manner. To gain deeper insight into mutation frequency and dynamics, we isolated ten ancestral strains of SARS-CoV-2 and performed consecutive serial incubation in ten replications in a suitable and common cell line and subsequently analysed them using RT-qPCR and whole genome sequencing. Along those lines we hoped to gain fundamental insights into the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. Our results identified a series of adaptive genetic changes, ranging from unique convergent substitutional mutations and hitherto undescribed insertions. The region coding for spike proved to be a mutational hotspot, evolving a number of mutational changes including the already known substitutions at positions S:484 and S:501. We discussed the evolution of all specific adaptations as well as possible reasons for the seemingly inhomogeneous potential of SARS-CoV-2 in the adaptation to cell culture. The combination of serial passage in vitro with whole genome sequencing uncovers the immense mutational potential of some SARS-CoV-2 strains. The observed genetic changes of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro could not be explained solely by selectively neutral mutations but possibly resulted from the action of directional selection accumulating favourable genetic changes in the evolving variants, along the path of increasing potency of the strain. Competition among a high number of quasi-species in the SARS-CoV-2 in vitro population gene pool may reinforce directional selection and boost the speed of evolutionary change.     

Land use and dispersal influence mortality in white-tailed deer

Restoring male age structure in white-tailed deer populations has become an important objective for many state agencies aimed at improving herd dynamics. Limiting mortality in the yearling (1–2 yr old) age class is a primary consideration, and regional differences in climate, habitat characteristics, hunting regulations, and hunter behavior complicate the understanding of how specific factors influence the risk of mortality. We used Cox proportional hazard modeling to determine the effects of body size, mean distance to road, dispersal behaviors, use of forested land, and use of land open to public hunting on the risk of mortality for a population of radio-collared, yearling males (n = 76) in Sussex County, Delaware, USA. Annual survival averaged 0.55 (95% CI = 0.45–0.68), with harvest accounting for 79% (26/33) of all mortalities. Measurements of body size (chest girth, shoulder height, and total length; cm) influenced dispersal probability but not dispersal distance. The best approximating model for mortality risk included a covariate for landownership, whereby mortality risk increased on public land. Among males who dispersed, longer-distance dispersal was associated with reduced mortality, which contradicts previous research describing dispersal as a high-risk behavior. The effect of landownership on mortality risk has not been previously identified, especially when regulations regarding harvest of yearling males are similar between landownership types. We observed annual survival rates of 0.69 (95% CI = 0.57–0.82) for deer apparently using private land exclusively during the hunting season, and 0.20 (95% CI = 0.11–0.48) for deer that used public land during the hunting season. Survival rates on private land were comparable to those of other regions actively managing male age structure. These results suggest survival of yearling males in the region is influenced by hunter harvest and the risks associated with dispersal may be minimal in areas where harvest pressure is low, although hunter harvest on public land may limit male age structure on a localized scale. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Diversification of Ferredoxins across Living Organisms

Ferredoxins, iron-sulfur (Fe-S) cluster proteins, play a key role in oxidoreduction reactions. To date, evolutionary analysis of these proteins across the domains of life have been confined to observing the abundance of Fe-S cluster types (2Fe-2S, 3Fe-4S, 4Fe-4S, 7Fe-8S (3Fe-4s and 4Fe-4S) and 2[4Fe-4S]) and the diversity of ferredoxins within these cluster types was not studied. To address this research gap, here we propose a subtype classification and nomenclature for ferredoxins based on the characteristic spacing between the cysteine amino acids of the Fe-S binding motif as a subtype signature to assess the diversity of ferredoxins across the living organisms. To test this hypothesis, comparative analysis of ferredoxins between bacterial groups, Alphaproteobacteria and Firmicutes and ferredoxins collected from species of different domains of life that are reported in the literature has been carried out. Ferredoxins were found to be highly diverse within their types. Large numbers of alphaproteobacterial species ferredoxin subtypes were found in Firmicutes species and the same ferredoxin subtypes across the species of Bacteria, Archaea, and Eukarya, suggesting shared common ancestral origin of ferredoxins between Archaea and Bacteria and lateral gene transfer of ferredoxins from prokaryotes (Archaea/Bacteria) to eukaryotes. This study opened new vistas for further analysis of diversity of ferredoxins in living organisms.     

Effective population size for culturally evolving traits

Population size has long been considered an important driver of cultural diversity and complexity. Results from population genetics, however, demonstrate that in populations with complex demographic structure or mode of inheritance, it is not the census population size, N, but the effective size of a population, N_e, that determines important evolutionary parameters. Here, we examine the concept of effective population size for traits that evolve culturally, through processes of innovation and social learning. We use mathematical and computational modeling approaches to investigate how cultural N_e and levels of diversity depend on (1) the way traits are learned, (2) population connectedness, and (3) social network structure. We show that one-to-many and frequency-dependent transmission can temporally or permanently lower effective population size compared to census numbers. We caution that migration and cultural exchange can have counter-intuitive effects on N_e. Network density in random networks leaves N_e unchanged, scale-free networks tend to decrease and small-world networks tend to increase N_e compared to census numbers. For one-to-many transmission and different network structures, larger effective sizes are closely associated with higher cultural diversity. For connectedness, however, even small amounts of migration and cultural exchange result in high diversity independently of N_e. Extending previous work, our results highlight the importance of carefully defining effective population size for cultural systems and show that inferring N_e requires detailed knowledge about underlying cultural and demographic processes.     

Localization of liver myofibroblasts and hepatic stellate cells in normal and diseased rat livers: distinct roles of (myo-)fibroblast subpopulations in hepatic tissue repair

Previous in vitro studies indicated that hepatic stellate cells (HSC) and rat liver myofibroblasts (rMF) have to be regarded as different cell populations of the myofibroblastic lineage with fibrogenic potential. Employing the discrimination features defined by these studies the localization of HSC and rMF was analyzed in diseased livers. Normal and acutely as well as chronically carbon tetrachloride-injured livers were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and by in situ hybridization. In normal livers HSC [desmin/glial fibrillary acid protein (GFAP)-positive cells] were distributed in the hepatic parenchyma, while rMF (desmin/smooth muscle alpha actin-positive, GFAP-negative cells colocalized with fibulin-2) were located in the portal field, the walls of central veins, and only occasionally in the parenchyma. Acute liver injury was characterized almost exclusively by an increase in the number of HSC, while the amount of rMF was nearly unchanged. In early stages of fibrosis, HSC and rMF were detected within the developing scars. In advanced stages of fibrosis, HSC were mainly present at the scar–parenchymal interface, while rMF accounted for the majority of the cells located within the scar. At every stage of fibrogenesis, rMF, in contrast to HSC, were only occasionally detected in the hepatic parenchyma. HSC and rMF are present in normal and diseased livers in distinct compartments and respond differentially to tissue injury. Acute liver injury is followed by an almost exclusive increase in the number of HSC, while in chronically injured livers not only HSC but also rMF are involved in scar formation. Accepted: 16 September 1999     

Chromosomal promoter replacement in Saccharomyces cerevisiae: Construction of conditional lethal strains for the cloning of glycosyltransferases from various organisms

Heterologous complementation in yeast has been a successful tool for cloning and characterisation of genes from various organisms. Therefore we constructed conditionally lethal Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains by replacing the endogenous promoter from the genes of interest (glycosyltransferases) by the stringently regulated GAL1-promoter, by a technique called chromosomal promoter replacement. Such yeast strains were constructed for the genes Alg 1, Alg7, Sec59, Wbp1 involved in N-Glycosylation, the genes Gpi2, Gpi3/Spt14, Gaal, Pis1, involved in GPI-anchor biosynthesis and Dpm involved in both pathways. All strains show the expected conditionally lethal phenotype on glucose-containing medium when expression of the respective gene is turned off.     

d-matrix – database exploration,visualization and analysis

Background  

Motivated by a biomedical database set up by our group, we aimed to develop a generic database front-end with embedded knowledge discovery and analysis features. A major focus was the human-oriented representation of the data and the enabling of a closed circle of data query, exploration, visualization and analysis.