A Novel Geriatric Screening Tool in Older Patients with Cancer: The Korean Cancer Study Group Geriatric Score (KG)-7

Geriatric assessment (GA) is resource-consuming, necessitating screening tools to select appropriate patients who need full GA. The objective of this study is to design a novel geriatric screening tool with easy-to-answer questions and high performance objectively selected from a large dataset to represent each domain of GA. A development cohort was constructed from 1284 patients who received GA from May 2004 to April 2007. Items representing each domain of functional status, cognitive function, nutritional status, and psychological status in GA were selected according to sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP). Of the selected items, the final questions were chosen by a panel of oncologists and geriatricians to encompass most domains evenly and also by feasibility and use with cancer patients. The selected screening questions were validated in a separate cohort of 98 cancer patients. The novel screening tool, the Korean Cancer Study Group Geriatric Score (KG)-7, consisted of 7 items representing each domain of GA. KG-7 had a maximal area under the curve (AUC) of 0.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92−0.95) in the prediction of abnormal GA, which was higher than that of G-8 (0.87, 95% CI 0.85–0.89) within the development cohort. The cut-off value was decided at ≤ 5 points, with a SE of 95.0%, SP of 59.2%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 85.3%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 82.6%. In the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.82 (95% CI 0.73−0.90), and the SE, SP, PPV, and NPV were 89.5%, 48.6%, 77.3%, and 75.0%, respectively. Furthermore, patients with higher KG-7 scores showed significantly longer overall survival (OS) in the development and validation cohorts. In conclusions, the KG-7 showed high SE and NPV to predict abnormal GA. The KG-7 also predicted OS. Given the results of our studies, the KG-7 could be used effectively in countries with high patient burden and low resources to select patients in need of full GA and intervention.     

Evaluation of coseasonality of influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease: results from prospective surveillance

Background

The wintertime co-occurrence of peaks in influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is well documented, but how and whether wintertime peaks caused by these two pathogens are causally related is still uncertain. We aimed to investigate the relationship between influenza infection and IPD in Ontario, Canada, using several complementary methodological tools.

Methods and Findings

We evaluated a total number of 38,501 positive influenza tests in Central Ontario and 6,191 episodes of IPD in the Toronto/Peel area, Ontario, Canada, between 1 January 1995 and 3 October 2009, reported through population-based surveillance. We assessed the relationship between the seasonal wave forms for influenza and IPD using fast Fourier transforms in order to examine the relationship between these two pathogens over yearly timescales. We also used three complementary statistical methods (time-series methods, negative binomial regression, and case-crossover methods) to evaluate the short-term effect of influenza dynamics on pneumococcal risk. Annual periodicity with wintertime peaks could be demonstrated for IPD, whereas periodicity for influenza was less regular. As for long-term effects, phase and amplitude terms of pneumococcal and influenza seasonal sine waves were not correlated and meta-analysis confirmed significant heterogeneity of influenza, but not pneumococcal phase terms. In contrast, influenza was shown to Granger-cause pneumococcal disease. A short-term association between IPD and influenza could be demonstrated for 1-week lags in both case-crossover (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] for one case of IPD per 100 influenza cases  = 1.10 [1.02–1.18]) and negative binomial regression analysis (incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval] for one case of IPD per 100 influenza cases  = 1.09 [1.05–1.14]).

Conclusions

Our data support the hypothesis that influenza influences bacterial disease incidence by enhancing short-term risk of invasion in colonized individuals. The absence of correlation between seasonal waveforms, on the other hand, suggests that bacterial disease transmission is affected to a lesser extent. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Extensive Dissemination of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) between the Hospital and the Community in a Country with a High Prevalence of Nosocomial MRSA

According to the EARS-Net surveillance data, Portugal has the highest prevalence of nosocomial methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Europe, but the information on MRSA in the community is very scarce and the links between the hospital and community are not known. In this study we aimed to understand the events associated to the recent sharp increase in MRSA frequency in Portugal and to evaluate how this has shaped MRSA epidemiology in the community. With this purpose, 180 nosocomial MRSA isolates recovered from infection in two time periods and 14 MRSA isolates recovered from 89 samples of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) were analyzed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), staphylococcal chromosome cassette mec (SCCmec) typing, spa typing and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). All isolates were also screened for the presence of Panton Valentine leukocidin (PVL) and arginine catabolic mobile element (ACME) by PCR. The results showed that ST22-IVh, accounting for 72% of the nosocomial isolates, was the major clone circulating in the hospital in 2010, having replaced two previous dominant clones in 1993, the Iberian (ST247-I) and Portuguese (ST239-III variant) clones. Moreover in 2010, three clones belonging to CC5 (ST105-II, ST125-IVc and ST5-IVc) accounted for 20% of the isolates and may represent the beginning of new waves of MRSA in this hospital. Interestingly, more than half of the MRSA isolates (8/14) causing SSTI in people attending healthcare centers in Portugal belonged to the most predominant clones found in the hospital, namely ST22-IVh (n = 4), ST5-IVc (n = 2) and ST105-II (n = 1). Other clones found included ST5-V (n = 6) and ST8-VI (n = 1). None of the MRSA isolates carried PVL and only five isolates (ST5-V-t179) carried ACME type II. The emergence and spread of EMRSA-15 may be associated to the observed increase in MRSA frequency in the hospital and the consequent spillover of MRSA into the community.     

Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation

Background

HIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence.

Methods and Findings

Two methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured.

Conclusions

It is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.     

EGCG在肿瘤预防及治疗中作用的分子机制

表没食子儿茶素没食子酸酯(EGCG)可多通路多途径预防和治疗肿瘤。本文综述了EGCG通过Nrf2通路预防肿瘤,从膜受体通路、线粒体通路、P53-Bax、67-LR-eEF1A、VEGF等通路促进肿瘤细胞的凋亡及周期阻滞,抑制肿瘤的侵袭和迁移的研究新进展。     

Development of cancer-initiating cells and immortalized cells with genomic instability

Cancers that develop after middle age usually exhibit genomic instability and multiple mutations. This is in direct contrast to pediatric tumors that usually develop as a result of specific chromosomal translocations andepigenetic aberrations. The development of genomic instability is associated with mutations that contribute to cellular immortalization and transformation. Cancer occurs when cancer-initiating cells(CICs), also called cancer stem cells, develop as a result of these mutations. In this paper, we explore how CICs develop as a result of genomic instability, including looking at which cancer suppression mechanisms are abrogated. A recent in vitro study revealed the existence of a CIC induction pathway in differentiating stem cells. Under aberrant differentiation conditions, cells become senescent and develop genomic instabilities that lead to the development of CICs. The resulting CICs contain a mutation in the alternative reading frame of CDKN2A(ARF)/p53 module, i.e., in either ARF or p53. We summarize recently established knowledge of CIC development and cellular immortality, explore the role of the ARF/p53 module in protecting cells from transformation, and describe a risk factor for genomic destabilization that increases during the process of normal cell growth and differentiation and is associated with the downregulation of histone H2 AX to levels representative of growth arrest in normal cells.     

Efficacy of statins for primary prevention in people at low cardiovascular risk: a meta-analysis

Background:

Statins were initially used to improve cardiovascular outcomes in people with established coronary artery disease, but recently their use has become more common in people at low cardiovascular risk. We did a systematic review of randomized trials to assess the efficacy and harms of statins in these individuals.

Methods:

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (to Jan. 28, 2011), registries of health technology assessments and clinical trials, and reference lists of relevant reviews. We included trials that randomly assigned participants at low cardiovascular risk to receive a statin versus a placebo or no statin. We defined low risk as an observed 10-year risk of less than 20% for cardiovascular-related death or nonfatal myocardial infarction, but we explored other definitions in sensitivity analyses.

Results:

We identified 29 eligible trials involving a total of 80 711 participants. All-cause mortality was significantly lower among patients receiving a statin than among controls (relative risk [RR] 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84–0.97) for trials with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease < 20% [primary analysis] and 0.83, 95% CI 0.73–0.94, for trials with 10-year risk < 10% [sensitivity analysis]). Patients in the statin group were also significantly less likely than controls to have nonfatal myocardial infarction (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.49–0.84) and nonfatal stroke (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68–0.96). Neither metaregression nor stratified analyses suggested statistically significant differences in efficacy between high-and low-potency statins, or larger reductions in cholesterol.

Interpretation:

Statins were found to be efficacious in preventing death and cardiovascular morbidity in people at low cardiovascular risk. Reductions in relative risk were similar to those seen in patients with a history of coronary artery disease.Although statins are known to improve survival and relevant clinical outcomes in high-risk populations,¹ evidence of their clinical benefit in lower risk populations is more equivocal. Initially, low-risk populations were defined by the absence of known coronary artery disease (and their treatment was termed “primary prevention”). However, it was subsequently recognized that these populations included both patients at very high risk of coronary artery disease (e.g., those with severe peripheral vascular disease) and those at very low risk (e.g., those aged < 40 years who have no diabetes or hypertension and have low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of less than 1.8 mmol/L). Accordingly, current guidelines for the use of statins are based on the projected risk of an atherosclerotic event rather than solely on the presence or absence of known coronary artery disease.^2,3Results of the recent JUPITER study (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin)⁴ have renewed enthusiasm for the use of statins in people without a history of coronary artery disease and have generated further controversy as to whether high-potency statins such as rosuvastatin and atorvastatin lead to better clinical outcomes than low-potency statins such as pravastatin, simvastatin, fluvastatin and lovastatin. We did a systematic review of randomized trials to assess the efficacy and harms of statins in people at low cardiovascular risk, including indirect comparisons of high-potency and low-potency statins.     

甘草亲缘关系的RAPD鉴定

以不同地区的3种15组甘草(Glycyrrhiza uralensis、G．infleta、G．glebra)种子为材料,探讨RAPD分子标记在研究、鉴定甘草亲缘关系中的可行性。从50个随机引物中筛选出9个有效引物,9个引物共扩增出961条DNA带,其中多态性条带811条,占总扩增条带的84．4％。对扩增出来的961条DNA带进行分析,结果表明：15组甘草植物的平均遗传距离为0．41,其中采自甘肃民勤野生甘草与采自新疆布尔津乌拉尔野生甘草遗传距离最小,为0．26;而采自内蒙古杭锦旗上海升袖的野生甘草与采自青海贵德的乌拉尔野生甘草遗传距离最大,为0．63。由RAPD聚类分析结果得出15组甘草植物之间的亲缘关系与形态学分类结果存在差异。