Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls'' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.     

Vegetativ vermehrbare Birnenunterlagen

Theoretical and Applied Genetics -     

Monoclonal anti-mouse macrophage antibodies recognize the globular portions of C1q, a subcomponent of the first component of complement

One of seven monoclonal antibodies generated against mouse macrophages (M phi) was found to recognize isolated heterologous C1q. This antibody was shown to be cytotoxic and to react in a strain-independent way with mouse M phi derived from bone marrow cells as well as with M phi from the peritoneal cavity; it did not react, however, with mouse granulocytes, thymocytes, or T and B lymphocytes. The hemolytic activity of fluid phase C1q was inhibited to 50% at a 2 X 10(-4) dilution of hybridoma supernatant, whereas a 100-fold higher concentration was required to inhibit C1q bound to immune complexes ( EAC1q ) to the same extent. It was demonstrated that this antibody recognizes the isolated globular, Fc-binding portions of the C1q molecule and reacts with the A and B chains. Because M phi have been shown to synthesize C1q, the Fc-recognizing subcomponent of the first component of complement, evidence was provided that endogeneous C1q can serve as an Fc receptor on M phi during secretion. This fact was demonstrated by a dose-dependent inhibition of Fc-receptor activity for EIgG by the F(ab')2 fragment of this monoclonal antibody. These experiments further support the concept that C1q produced by M phi functions on the surface as an Fc-recognizing molecule before it is released and incorporated into the macromolecular complex of serum C1.     

Selecting high-dimensional mixed graphical models using minimal AIC or BIC forests

Background  

Chow and Liu showed that the maximum likelihood tree for multivariate discrete distributions may be found using a maximum weight spanning tree algorithm, for example Kruskal's algorithm. The efficiency of the algorithm makes it tractable for high-dimensional problems.     

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.