Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long‐term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot‐dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long‐term strategic resource management decisions.     

Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site‐specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)‐fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain‐filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West‐European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid‐1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature‐related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.     

Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils

Carbon cycle feedbacks from permafrost ecosystems are expected to accelerate global climate change. Shifts in vegetation productivity and composition in permafrost regions could influence soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover rates via rhizosphere (root zone) priming effects (RPEs), but these processes are not currently accounted for in model predictions. We use a radiocarbon (bomb‐¹⁴C) approach to test for RPEs in two Arctic tall shrubs, alder (Alnus viridis (Chaix) DC.) and birch (Betula glandulosa Michx.), and in ericaceous heath tundra vegetation. We compare surface CO₂ efflux rates and ¹⁴C content between intact vegetation and plots in which below‐ground allocation of recent photosynthate was prevented by trenching and removal of above‐ground biomass. We show, for the first time, that recent photosynthate drives mineralization of older (>50 years old) SOC under birch shrubs and ericaceous heath tundra. By contrast, we find no evidence of RPEs in soils under alder. This is the first direct evidence from permafrost systems that vegetation influences SOC turnover through below‐ground C allocation. The vulnerability of SOC to decomposition in permafrost systems may therefore be directly linked to vegetation change, such that expansion of birch shrubs across the Arctic could increase decomposition of older SOC. Our results suggest that carbon cycle models that do not include RPEs risk underestimating the carbon cycle feedbacks associated with changing conditions in tundra regions.     

Global changes may be promoting a rise in select cyanobacteria in nutrient‐poor northern lakes

The interacting effects of global changes—including increased temperature, altered precipitation, reduced acidification and increased dissolved organic matter loads to lakes—are anticipated to create favourable environmental conditions for cyanobacteria in northern lakes. However, responses of cyanobacteria to these global changes are complex, if not contradictory. We hypothesized that absolute and relative biovolumes of cyanobacteria (both total and specific genera) are increasing in Swedish nutrient‐poor lakes and that these increases are associated with global changes. We tested these hypotheses using data from 28 nutrient‐poor Swedish lakes over 16 years (1998–2013). Increases in cyanobacteria relative biovolume were identified in 21% of the study sites, primarily in the southeastern region of Sweden, and were composed mostly of increases from three specific genera: Merismopedia, Chroococcus and Dolichospermum. Taxon‐specific changes were related to different environmental stressors; that is, increased surface water temperature favoured higher Merismopedia relative biovolume in low pH lakes with high nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, whereas acidification recovery was statistically related to increased relative biovolumes of Chroococcus and Dolichospermum. In addition, enhanced dissolved organic matter loads were identified as potential determinants of Chroococcus suppression and Dolichospermum promotion. Our findings highlight that specific genera of cyanobacteria benefit from different environmental changes. Our ability to predict the risk of cyanobacteria prevalence requires consideration of the environmental condition of a lake and the sensitivities of the cyanobacteria genera within the lake. Regional patterns may emerge due to spatial autocorrelations within and among lake history, rates and direction of environmental change and the niche space occupied by specific cyanobacteria.     

Growth and resilience responses of Scots pine to extreme droughts across Europe depend on predrought growth conditions

Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees’ phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long‐term local selective pressures and management legacies. Here we investigated the magnitude and the temporal changes of tree‐level resilience (i.e., resistance, recovery, and resilience) to extreme droughts. Moreover, we assessed the tree‐, site‐, and drought‐related factors and their interactions driving the tree‐level resilience to extreme droughts. We used a tree‐ring network of the widely distributed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a 2,800 km latitudinal gradient from southern Spain to northern Germany. We found that the resilience to extreme drought decreased in mid‐elevation and low productivity sites from 1980–1999 to 2000–2011 likely due to more frequent and severe droughts in the later period. Our study showed that the impact of drought on tree‐level resilience was not dependent on its latitudinal location, but rather on the type of sites trees were growing at and on their growth performances (i.e., magnitude and variability of growth) during the predrought period. We found significant interactive effects between drought duration and tree growth prior to drought, suggesting that Scots pine trees with higher magnitude and variability of growth in the long term are more vulnerable to long and severe droughts. Moreover, our results indicate that Scots pine trees that experienced more frequent droughts over the long‐term were less resistant to extreme droughts. We, therefore, conclude that the physiological resilience to extreme droughts might be constrained by their growth prior to drought, and that more frequent and longer drought periods may overstrain their potential for acclimation.     

Variation in the phenology of photosynthesis among eastern white pine provenances in response to warming

In higher‐latitude trees, temperature and photoperiod control the beginning and end of the photosynthetically active season. Elevated temperature (ET) has advanced spring warming and delayed autumn cooling while photoperiod remains unchanged. We assessed the effects of warming on the length of the photosynthetically active season of three provenances of Pinus strobus L. seedlings from different latitudes, and evaluated the accuracy of the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and the chlorophyll/carotenoid index (CCI) for tracking the predicted variation in spring and autumn phenology of photosynthesis among provenances. Seedlings from northern, local and southern P. strobus provenances were planted in a temperature‐free‐air‐controlled enhancement (T‐FACE) experiment and exposed to ET (+1.5/3°C; day/night). Over 18 months, we assessed photosynthetic phenology by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange, leaf spectral reflectance and pigment content. During autumn, all seedlings regardless of provenance followed the same sequence of phenological events with the initial downregulation of photosynthesis, followed by the modulation of non‐photochemical quenching and associated adjustments of zeaxanthin pool sizes. However, the timing of autumn downregulation differed between provenances, with delayed onset in the southern provenance (SP) and earlier onset in the northern relative to the local provenance, indicating that photoperiod at the provenance origin is a dominant factor controlling autumn phenology. Experimental warming further delayed the downregulation of photosynthesis during autumn in the SP. A provenance effect during spring was also observed but was generally not significant. The vegetation indices PRI and CCI were both effective at tracking the seasonal variations of energy partitioning in needles and the differences of carotenoid pigments indicative of the stress status of needles. These results demonstrate that PRI and CCI can be useful tools for monitoring conifer phenology and for the remote monitoring of the length of the photosynthetically active season of conifers in a changing climate.