Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non‐native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species–environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our ‘best’ model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium. However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed.     

Consequences of interspecific hybridization and virus infection on the growth and fecundity of three threatened coastal Lepidium (Brassicaceae) species from New Zealand

Lepidium castellanum, L. juvencum and L. oleraceum are threatened coastal cresses endemic to New Zealand. These three species were selfed and interspecific hybrids generated for examination of hybrid fitness and inbreeding depression. In controlled glasshouse experiments, the interspecific hybrids and selfed progeny were inoculated with a strain of the introduced Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) previously isolated from wild populations of L. aegrum. Experiments tested the hypothesis that heterosis in the interspecific hybrids provides a gain in TuMV resistance in comparison to selfed plants. We show that interspecific hybrids of three genetically distinct species of Lepidium increased plant performance and reduced susceptibility to the effects of the TuMV. We suggest that interspecific hybridization could be implemented as a conservation management strategy and that a broader outlook may be required to mitigate the negative impacts of introduced pathogens on threatened species.     

Standard survey designs drive bias in the mapping of upland swamp communities

Vegetation maps are critical biodiversity planning instruments, but the classification of vegetation for mapping can be strongly biased by survey design. Standardization of survey design across different vegetation types is therefore increasingly recommended for vegetation mapping programs. However, some vegetation types have complex small‐scale vegetation patterns that are important in characterizing these vegetation types, and standard designs will often not capture these patterns. The objective of this paper was to investigate the magnitude of potential map bias that results from survey design standardization and recommend approaches to deal with this bias. We surveyed upland swamps of the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area Australia using two contrasting survey designs, including the standard 400 m² single quadrat design recommended and used by authorities. We then derived a classification for these swamps and tested the effect of survey design on this classification, species richness and the type of species detected (obligate or facultative swamp species). Species richness and species type were not significantly different among survey techniques. However, more than 40% of swamps clustered differently among survey designs. Thus, one of the 10 derived communities (which is floristically consistent with a previously mapped endangered community) was indistinct, and some individual swamps misclassified using the standard survey design. An effect of landscape position on swamp floristic patterns and a significant trend for high similarity scores among swamps surveyed with multiple small quadrats compared to the standard survey design was also determined. Australian upland swamps are classified at the global scale as shrub‐dominated wetlands, and complex floristic patterns have been recorded in shrub‐dominated wetlands in both northern and southern hemispheres. We therefore advocate either multiple survey designs or different survey standards for upland swamp communities and other vegetation types that have complex floristic patterns at small scales.     

Exosomes in Mesenchymal Stem Cells,a New Therapeutic Strategy for Cardiovascular Diseases?

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are still a major cause of people deaths worldwide, and mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) transplantation holds great promise due to its capacity to differentiate into cardiovascular cells and secrete protective cytokines, which presents an important mechanism of MSCs therapy for CVDs. Although the capability of MSCs to differentiate into cardiomyocytes (CMCs), endothelial cells (ECs) and vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) has been well recognized in massive previous experiments both in vitro and in vivo, low survival rate of transplanted MSCs in recipient hearts suggests that therapeutic effects of MSCs transplantation might be also correlated with other underlying mechanisms. Notably, recent studies uncovered that MSCs were able to secret cholesterol-rich, phospholipid exosomes which were enriched with microRNAs (miRNAs). The released exosomes from MSCs acted on hearts and vessels, and then exerted anti-apoptosis, cardiac regeneration, anti-cardiac remodeling, anti-inflammatory effects, neovascularization and anti-vascular remodeling, which are considered as novel molecular mechanisms of therapeutic potential of MSCs transplantation. Here we summarized recent advances about the role of exosomes in MSCs therapy for CVDs, and discussed exosomes as a novel approach in the treatment of CVDs in the future.