Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for conclusions about future range shifts and extinctions. Our common data set entailed the current ranges of 100 randomly selected mammal species found in the western hemisphere. Using these range maps, we compared six methods for modeling predicted future ranges. Predicted future distributions differed markedly across the alternative modeling approaches, which in turn resulted in estimates of extinction rates that ranged between 0% and 7%, depending on which model was used. Random forest predictors, a model‐averaging approach, consistently outperformed the other techniques (correctly predicting >99% of current absences and 86% of current presences). We conclude that the types of models used in a study can have dramatic effects on predicted range shifts and extinction rates; and that model‐averaging approaches appear to have the greatest potential for predicting range shifts in the face of climate change.     

Two multiplex sets of eight and five microsatellite markers for the European corn borer,Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

Primer sequence and polymorphism data are presented for 13 microsatellite loci isolated from the European corn borer moth, Ostrinia nubilalis, as part of a project to construct a linkage map for the two pheromone strains. Experimental conditions are described for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) multiplexing, which allows genotyping in two electrophoresis runs of eight and five markers each. In a sample of 27 individuals coming from one European locality, the number of alleles per locus ranged from one to 12, and gene diversity from 0 to 0.859. Seven loci showed a deficit of heterozygotes. Eleven loci cross‐amplify in the related Ostrinia furnacalis.     

Bottom-up cascading effects in a tritrophic system: interactions between plant quality and host-parasitoid immune responses

Abstract.  1. Little is known about underlying mechanisms by which plants indirectly affect parasitism success in hymenopteran endoparasitoids. The hypothesis that host-plant effects can challenge the innate immune system of an insect host was experimentally tested in this study using a model tritrophic, crucifer – lepidopteran [ Plutella xylostella (L.)] – parasitoid [ Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov)], system.
2. The effects of host-plant suitability on herbivore performance and parasitism were examined. The bottom-up effect of plant suitability on host-parasitoid immune responses was then evaluated using measures of cellular and humoral effectors.
3. Host-plant quality showed a significant effect on the encapsulation response of P. xylostella to first instar but not to second instar parasitoid larvae. Encapsulation was never sufficient to prevent parasitoid emergence.
4. Poor host-plant suitability suppressed phenoloxidase activity in the absence of the parasitoid. The suppressive effect of C. plutellae on phenoloxidase activity was much greater and no plant effects were detectable after insects had been parasitized.
5. Despite strong plant effects on parasitism, those on immune effectors of the host were transitory or overwhelmed by the effect of the parasitoid.
6. These results demonstrated that plant-mediated variation in parasitism success by C. plutellae were not as a result of plant nutritional status or other attributes affecting the immune function of P. xylostella , nor to host-plant effects on superparasitism.
7. In these experiments, P. xylostella was a fully permissive host to C. plutellae and host-plant-mediated effects on the innate immune response appeared to play no part in parasitoid survival within hosts.     

Molecular phylogeny of the genus Philodendron (Araceae): delimitation and infrageneric classification

The genus Philodendron (Araceae) is a large neotropical group whose classification remains unclear. Previous classifications are based on morphological characters, mainly from the inflorescence, flower and leaf shape. The classification by Krause, with few modifications, is still the most commonly used system. To examine phylogenetic relationships in the genus, two ribosomal DNA nuclear markers, internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and external transcribed spacer (ETS), and the chloroplast intron rpl 16, were sequenced and analysed for more than 80 species of Philodendron and its close relative Homalomena . According to the resulting phylogeny, the genus Homalomena may be paraphyletic to the genus Philodendron . The inclusion of the American Homalomena species within the genus Philodendron might resolve this taxonomic problem. All three subgenera of Philodendron were revealed as monophyletic. Below the subgeneric level, the groups obtained in our phylogeny globally correspond to sections recognized in previous classifications. Among the morphological characters used by previous taxonomists to build their classifications, and which we optimized onto one of the most parsimonious trees, most characters were found to be homoplasious. However, leaf shape, characteristics of the sterile zone on the spadix and venation patterns are useful for delimiting subgenera and sections within the genus.  © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2008, 156 , 13–27.     

Developing an empirical model of stand GPP with the LUE approach: analysis of eddy covariance data at five contrasting conifer sites in Europe

This paper develops a statistical model for daily gross primary production (GPP) in boreal and temperate coniferous forests. The model applies the light use efficiency (LUE) approach, which estimates the conversion efficiency of daily absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) into daily GPP as a product of potential LUE and modifying factors. The latter were derived from daily total APAR and daily mean temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and soil water content (SWC). Modelling data came from five European eddy covariance measurement towers over 2–8 years. The model was tested against independent data from two AmeriFlux stations. The model with the APAR, temperature and VPD modifiers worked well in almost all the site–year combinations, but the SWC modifier only improved the fit in few cases. Geographical variation was found in the modifiers and potential LUE in site-specific models. When a model was fitted to pooled data, differences between sites could be explained by potential LUE, leaf area and environmental conditions. The test against the AmeriFlux data corroborated this finding. The potential LUE varied from 1.9 to 3.1 g C MJ⁻¹, and a weak correlation was found between foliar nitrogen concentration and potential LUE. Some year-to-year variation remained which could be captured by neither the pooled nor the site-specific models.     

Habitat association and coexistence of endemic and introduced ant species in the Galápagos Islands

1. We investigated ant communities in all main vegetation zones of the model island of Santa Cruz in the Galápagos archipelago (155 collection points, spread over 21 sites; 28 ant species collected), and evaluated the distribution, coexistence, and effect of environmental factors in a community composed of endemic, probably endemic, and introduced ants of the New World and exotic origin. 2. Introduced species were the most frequent, occurring in 98% of the samples, yet endemic and probably endemic species still occurred in 54% of the samples, and constituted one of three most common species. The present study revealed that the habitat type along with altitude and the tree cover are the primary factors shaping ant community composition. Little evidence was found for a competitively structured assemblage of ant species. 3. The present study confirmed the predominance of two dominant invasive species, Solenopsis geminata Fabricius and Wasmannia auropunctata Roger, whose abundances are negatively correlated. The abundance of S. geminata is positively correlated with the overall species richness, and with the proportion of other introduced species. The presence of both invasive ants is associated with a low evenness of ant communities. 4. The present study (i) stresses the dominance of introduced species and the relative resistance of endemic species, (ii) highlights the on‐going processes of species introductions and (iii) points out the need for adequate monitoring and conservation of the pristine and threatened environments that constitute the Galápagos Islands.