A game-theoretic model for punctuated equilibrium: species invasion and stasis through coevolution

A general theory of coevolution is developed that combines the ecological effects of species' densities with the evolutionary effects of changing phenotypes. Our approach also treats the evolutionary changes between coevolving species with discreet traits after the appearance of a new species. We apply this approach to habitat selection models where new species first emerge through competitive selection in an isolated habitat. This successful invasion is quickly followed by evolutionary changes in behavior when this species discovers the other habitat, leading to punctuated equilibrium as the final outcome.     

Migration dynamics for the ideal free distribution

This article verifies that the ideal free distribution (IFD) is evolutionarily stable, provided the payoff in each patch decreases with an increasing number of individuals. General frequency-dependent models of migratory dynamics that differ in the degree of animal omniscience are then developed. These models do not exclude migration at the IFD where balanced dispersal emerges. It is shown that the population distribution converges to the IFD even when animals are nonideal (i.e., they do not know the quality of all patches). In particular, the IFD emerges when animals never migrate from patches with a higher payoff to patches with a lower payoff and when some animals always migrate to the best patch. It is shown that some random migration does not necessarily lead to undermatching, provided migration occurs at the IFD. The effect of population dynamics on the IFD (and vice versa) is analyzed. Without any migration, it is shown that population dynamics alone drive the population distribution to the IFD. If animal migration tends (for each fixed population size) to the IFD, then the combined migration-population dynamics evolve to the population IFD independent of the two timescales (i.e., behavioral vs. population).     

Modulation of social interactions by immune stimulation in honey bee, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera</Emphasis>, workers

Background  

Immune response pathways have been relatively well-conserved across animal species, with similar systems in both mammals and invertebrates. Interestingly, honey bees have substantially reduced numbers of genes associated with immune function compared with solitary insect species. However, social species such as honey bees provide an excellent environment for pathogen or parasite transmission with controlled environmental conditions in the hive, high population densities, and frequent interactions. This suggests that honey bees may have developed complementary mechanisms, such as behavioral modifications, to deal with disease.     

Flying lemurs – The 'flying tree shrews'? Molecular cytogenetic evidence for a Scandentia-Dermoptera sister clade

Background  

Flying lemurs or Colugos (order Dermoptera) represent an ancient mammalian lineage that contains only two extant species. Although molecular evidence strongly supports that the orders Dermoptera, Scandentia, Lagomorpha, Rodentia and Primates form a superordinal clade called Supraprimates (or Euarchontoglires), the phylogenetic placement of Dermoptera within Supraprimates remains ambiguous.     

Stability in -species coevolutionary systems

Stability criteria have recently been developed for coevolutionary Lotka–Volterra systems where individual fitness functions are assumed to be linear in the population state. We extend these criteria as part of a general theory of coevolution (that combines effects of ecology and evolution) based on arbitrary (i.e. nonlinear) fitness functions and a finite number of individual phenotypes. The central role of the stationary density surface where species’ densities are at equilibrium is emphasized. In particular, for monomorphic resident systems, it is shown coevolutionary stability is equivalent to ecological stability combined with evolutionary stability on the stationary density surface. Also discussed is how our theory relates to recent treatments of phenotypic coevolution via adaptive dynamics when there is a continuum of individual phenotypes.     

Preventing desert locust plagues: optimizing management interventions

Solitarious desert locusts, Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) (Orthoptera: Acrididae), inhabit the central, arid, and semi‐arid parts of the species’ invasion area in Africa, the Middle East, and South‐West Asia. Their annual migration circuit takes them downwind to breed sequentially where winter, spring, and summer rains fall. In many years, sparse and erratic seasonal rains support phase change and local outbreaks at only a few sites. Less frequently, seasonal rains are widespread, frequent, heavy, and long lasting, and many contemporaneous outbreaks occur. When such seasonal rains fall sequentially, populations develop into an upsurge and eventually into a plague unless checked by drought, migration to hostile habitats, or effective control. Increases in the proportion of gregarious populations as the plague develops alter the effectiveness of control. As an upsurge starts, only a minority of locusts is aggregated into treatable targets and spraying them leaves sufficient unsprayed individuals to continue the upsurge. Spraying all individuals scattered within an entire infested zone is arguably both financially and environmentally unacceptable. More of the population gregarizes and forms sprayable targets after each successive season of good rains and successful breeding. Eventually, unless the rains fail, the entire upsurge population becomes aggregated at high densities so that the infested area diminishes and a plague begins. These populations must continue to increase numerically and spread geographically to achieve peak plague levels, a stage last reached in the 1950s. Effective control, aided by poor rains, accompanied each subsequent late upsurge and early plague stage and all declined rapidly. The control strategy aims to reduce populations to prevent plagues and damage to crops and grazing. Differing opinions on the optimum stage to interrupt pre‐plague breeding sequences are reviewed.     

Molecular biodiversity of cassava begomoviruses in Tanzania: evolution of cassava geminiviruses in Africa and evidence for East Africa being a center of diversity of cassava geminiviruses

Cassava is infected by numerous geminiviruses in Africa and India that cause devastating losses to poor farmers. We here describe the molecular diversity of seven representative cassava mosaic geminiviruses (CMGs) infecting cassava from multiple locations in Tanzania. We report for the first time the presence of two isolates in East Africa: (EACMCV-[TZ1] and EACMCV-[TZ7]) of the species East African cassava mosaic Cameroon virus, originally described in West Africa. The complete nucleotide sequence of EACMCV-[TZ1] DNA-A and DNA-B components shared a high overall sequence identity to EACMCV-[CM] components (92% and 84%). The EACMCV-[TZ1] and -[TZ7] genomic components have recombinations in the same genome regions reported in EACMCV-[CM], but they also have additional recombinations in both components. Evidence from sequence analysis suggests that the two strains have the same ancient origin and are not recent introductions. EACMCV-[TZ1] occurred widely in the southern part of the country. Four other CMG isolates were identified: two were close to the EACMV-Kenya strain (named EACMV-[KE/TZT] and EACMV-[KE/TZM] with 96% sequence identity); one isolate, TZ10, had 98% homology to EACMV-UG2Svr and was named EACMV-UG2 [TZ10]; and finally one isolate was 95% identical to EACMV-[TZ] and named EACMV-[TZ/YV]. One isolate of African cassava mosaic virus with 97% sequence identity with other isolates of ACMV was named ACMV-[TZ]. It represents the first ACMV isolate from Tanzania to be sequenced. The molecular variability of CMGs was also evaluated using partial B component nucleotide sequences of 13 EACMV isolates from Tanzania. Using the sequences of all CMGs currently available, we have shown the presence of a number of putative recombination fragments that are more prominent in all components of EACMV than in ACMV. This new knowledge about the molecular CMG diversity in East Africa, and in Tanzania in particular, has led us to hypothesize about the probable importance of this part of Africa as a source of diversity and evolutionary change both during the early stages of the relationship between CMGs and cassava and in more recent times. The existence of multiple CMG isolates with high DNA genome diversity in Tanzania and the molecular forces behind this diversity pose a threat to cassava production throughout the African continent.     

Accuracy of diagnostic registers and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the Devon primary care audit

Background

Guidelines on COPD diagnosis and management encourage primary care physicians to detect the disease at an early stage and to treat patients according to their condition and needs. Problems in guideline implementation include difficulties in diagnosis, using spirometry and the disputed role of reversibility testing. These lead to inaccurate diagnostic registers and inadequacy of administered treatments. This study represents an audit of COPD diagnosis and management in primary care practices in Devon.

Methods

Six hundred and thirty two patients on COPD registers in primary care practices were seen by a visiting Respiratory Specialist Nurse. Diagnoses were made according to the NICE guidelines. Reversibility testing was carried out either routinely or based on clinical indication in two sub-samples. Dyspnoea was assessed. Data were entered into a novel IT-based software which computed guideline-based treatment recommendations. Current and recommended treatments were compared.

Results

Five hundred and eighty patients had spirometry. Diagnoses of COPD were confirmed in 422 patients (73%). Thirty nine patients were identified as asthma only, 94 had normal spirometry, 23 were restrictive and 2 had a cardiac disorder. Reversibility testing changed diagnosis of 11% of patients with airflow obstruction, and severity grading in 18%. Three quarters of patients with COPD had been offered practical help with smoking cessation. Short and long-acting anticholinergics and long acting beta-2 agonists had been under-prescribed; in 15–18% of patients they were indicated but not received. Inhaled steroids had been over-prescribed (recommended in 17%; taken by 60%), whereas only 4% of patients with a chronic productive cough were receiving mucolytics. Pulmonary rehabilitation was not available in some areas and was under-used in other areas.

Conclusion

Diagnostic registers of COPD in primary care contain mistakes leading to inaccurate prevalence estimates and inappropriate treatment decisions. Use of pre-bronchodilator readings for diagnosis overestimates the prevalence and severity in a significant minority, thus post bronchodilator readings should be used. Management of stable COPD does often not correspond to guidelines. The IT system used in this study has the potential to improve diagnosis and management of COPD in primary care.