Survival,site fidelity,and the population dynamics of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan

ABSTRACT To conserve threatened species, managers require predictions about the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on population growth that in turn require accurate estimates of survival, birth, and dispersal rates, and their correlation with natural and anthropogenic factors. For Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus), fledging rate is often more amenable to management than adult survival, and population models can be used to estimate the productivity (young produced per breeding female) necessary to maintain or increase populations for given levels of survival. We estimated true survival and site fidelity of adult and subadult (from fledging to second year) Piping Plovers breeding in Saskatchewan using mark‐resight data from 2002 to 2009. By estimating true survival rather than apparent survival (which is confounded with permanent emigration), we were able to provide more accurate projections of population trends. Average adult and subadult survival rates during our study were 0.80 and 0.57, respectively. Adult survival declined over time, possibly due in part to the loss of one breeding site to flooding. Average adult and subadult site fidelity were 0.86 and 0.46, respectively. Adult site fidelity declined during our study at two study sites, most strongly at the flooded site. Male and female Piping Plovers had similar survival rates, but males had greater site fidelity than females in some years. Based on our survival estimates, productivity needed for a stationary population was 0.75, a benchmark used for plover management on the Atlantic Coast, but not previously estimated for Prairie Canada. In stochastic simulations incorporating literature‐based variation in survival rates, productivity needed for a stationary population increased to 0.86, still lower than that previously estimated for western populations. Mean productivity for our study sites ranged from 0.87 to 0.96 fledged young per pair. Our results suggest that fledging rates of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan were sufficient to ensure a stationary or increasing population during our study period. However, large‐scale habitat changes such as drought or anthropogenic flooding may lead to dispersal of breeding adults and possibly mortality that will increase the fledging rate needed for a stationary population.     

Connectivity in piping plovers: Do breeding populations have distinct winter distributions?

Resightings of uniquely marked birds from 2001 to 2008 were used to determine winter distributions of 4 breeding populations of a species at risk, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus). Although considerable overlap exists, a distinct pattern in winter distributions was evident. Birds originating from eastern Canada wintered farthest north compared to other populations. Most individuals from the United States Great Lakes were found in South Carolina and Georgia in winter, whereas birds from eastern Canada were found primarily in North Carolina. Although the great majority of birds marked in Prairie Canada were observed wintering in Texas, particularly southern Texas, breeding plovers from the United States Great Plains were more widely distributed on the gulf coast from Florida to Texas. Very few large-scale movements of individuals in winter were reported either within or between years. This study highlights the significance of geographic regions for eastern Canada, the United States Great Lakes, the United States Great Plains, and Prairie Canada populations, and demonstrates relatively high winter site fidelity. This information will help focus conservation efforts for specific breeding populations during the winter. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Maximum-likelihood ordination — some improvements and further tests

A modification to a previously described maximum likelihood approach to non-linear ordination is presented. It involves weighting quantitative measures of species importance to ensure that changes in values along a gradient are given equal weight irrespective of their magnitude. The maximum likelihood method was tested with artificial data based on a model incorporating various types of non-linear species responses. Symmetrical and asymmetrical response surfaces, with and without central depression, were used and the method was shown to be reasonably robust. In tests on both real and artificial data it proved superior to other methods.